比特幣處於「危險區」：減半後價格下跌和市場洞察

比特幣減半後的反彈後，其價格下跌了 6.49%，進入了歷史上經歷過回檔的「危險區」。分析師 Rekt Capital 建議兩週內可能回撤至 6 萬美元，這與過去的減半趨勢類似。比特幣現貨 ETF 淨流出 2.17 億美元，其中 GBTC 貢獻 1.38 億美元。

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Performance and the 'Danger Zone'

比特幣減半後的表現和“危險區”

Following the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event on April 19, the cryptocurrency's price has exhibited a perplexing trajectory, initially surging by nearly 10% to reach $67,020 on April 24, only to subsequently decline by 6.49% in the past two days, falling below the $63,000 mark.

繼4月19日備受期待的比特幣減半事件之後，該加密貨幣的價格呈現出令人困惑的軌跡，最初在4月24日飆升近10%，達到67,020美元，但隨後在過去兩天下跌6.49%，跌破63,000美元標記。

This unexpected price drop has captivated the attention of investors and market observers, prompting renowned analyst Rekt Capital to propose a theory that sheds light on Bitcoin's recent decline and potentially forecasts its future price movements.

這種意外的價格下跌吸引了投資者和市場觀察家的注意，促使著名分析師 Rekt Capital 提出了一種理論，揭示了比特幣近期的下跌趨勢，並有可能預測其未來的價格走勢。

Post-Halving 'Danger Zone'

減半後的“危險區”

In a post published on April 26, Rekt Capital asserts that Bitcoin has entered the post-halving "Danger Zone," a period characterized by historical price corrections following halving events. In 2016, for instance, Bitcoin experienced price retraces in the three weeks following the halving, with a decline of approximately 11%.

Rekt Capital 在 4 月 26 日發表的一篇文章中聲稱，比特幣已進入減半後的“危險區”，這一時期的特點是減半事件後的歷史價格調整。以2016年為例，比特幣在減半後的三週內經歷了價格回調，跌幅約11%。

Rekt Capital postulates that the current price fall over the past two days indicates that Bitcoin is now within the post-halving "Danger Zone" of the current bull cycle. Should Bitcoin mirror past price behavior during this phase, it could potentially drop to $60,000 within the next two weeks, as projected by the analyst.

Rekt Capital 假設，過去兩天的當前價格下跌表明比特幣目前處於當前牛市週期減半後的「危險區」。如果比特幣在這一階段反映過去的價格行為，那麼正如分析師預測的那樣，它可能會在未來兩週內跌至 60,000 美元。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,672, representing a 2.44% decline over the past day and an overall loss of 11.16% in market value during the past month.

截至本文撰寫時，比特幣交易價格約為 62,672 美元，較過去一天下跌 2.44%，過去一個月市值整體下跌 11.16%。

Bitcoin ETFs: Minor Inflows and Outflows

比特幣 ETF：小幅流入和流出

Despite the recent price dip, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced both inflows and outflows, with data from SoSoValue indicating net outflows of $217 million on April 25. Grayscale's GBTC, the largest Bitcoin spot ETF, accounted for $138 million of these outflows, bringing its total outflows to nearly $17 billion.

儘管近期價格下跌，但比特幣現貨ETF 仍經歷了流入和流出，SoSoValue 的數據顯示，4 月25 日淨流出達2.17 億美元。使其總流出額達到1.38 億美元。

Notably, Fidelity's FBTC and Valkyrie's BRRR recorded net outflows for the first time, estimated at $22 million and $20 million, respectively. ARK Invest's ARKB and Bitwise's BITB also witnessed a decline in investment on Thursday.

值得注意的是，Fidelity 的 FBTC 和 Valkyrie 的 BRRR 首次錄得淨流出，估計分別為 2,200 萬美元和 2,000 萬美元。 ARK Invest 的 ARKB 和 Bitwise 的 BITB 週四的投資也出現下降。

Conversely, all other Bitcoin spot ETFs, with the exception of Franklin Tempton's EZBC, managed to maintain zero net flows. EZBC saw a modest net inflow of $1.87 million. As of writing, the combined value of BTC spot ETFs stands at $128 billion, indicating significant growth since their trading debut on January 11.

相反，除富蘭克林鄧普頓的 EZBC 外，所有其他比特幣現貨 ETF 均設法維持零淨流量。 EZBC 出現 187 萬美元的適度淨流入。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 現貨 ETF 的總價值為 1,280 億美元，表明自 1 月 11 日首次交易以來出現了顯著增長。

Conclusion

結論

The post-halving performance of Bitcoin remains uncertain, with analysts such as Rekt Capital suggesting the potential for further price declines within the next two weeks. However, it is crucial to note that investing in cryptocurrencies carries inherent risks, and investors are strongly advised to conduct thorough research and exercise caution before making any investment decisions.

比特幣減半後的表現仍不確定，Rekt Capital 等分析師表示，未來兩週內價格可能會進一步下跌。然而，值得注意的是，投資加密貨幣具有固有風險，強烈建議投資者在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底研究並謹慎行事。