比特币今年将突破 100 万美元？不是这个周期

如你所知，我对加密货币持看跌态度，目前认为我们已经接近顶部，甚至可能已经看到了它。

A cryptocurrency illustration shows the Bitcoin dropping down to the fall with the growth sign ... [+]

加密货币插图显示比特币随着增长迹象而下跌...... [+]

As you know I’m a bear on crypto, at this point thinking we are near the top or perhaps have even seen it. At the extreme end of my positive expectations I am a minor bull with $120,000 remaining my target for the top with perhaps an overshoot approaching $150,000. These high targets are not particularly likely in my mind and now is the time to risk for those that can afford a large pull back.

如你所知，我对加密货币持看跌态度，目前认为我们已经接近顶部，甚至可能已经看到了它。在我积极预期的极端情况下，我是一个小牛市，120,000 美元仍然是我的顶部目标，可能会超出接近 150,000 美元。在我看来，这些高目标不太可能实现，现在是那些能够承受大幅回调的人冒险的时候了。

I am not a believer in the ‘bitcoin to a mil this year’ group of acolytes. Bitcoin could hit $1m, for several reasons, but not this cycle. The most obvious way bitcoin could get to billions and zillions is if a beer in a bar costs $100,000 in a doomster hyper-inflation scenario, but I don’t expect the death of the dollar scenario to play out or any of the economic Armageddon what-ifs so loved by internet pundits. Alternatively, bitcoin after another three halvenings could get there in 12 years with ideal economic and geo-political circumstances, but even that seems a stretch. That x10 would be worth waiting for and about a 25% yearly compounding, but it’s not the bitcoin maxi dream of $1m by Christmas. $1m by Christmas? Nope.

我不相信“比特币今年会涨到一百万”的追随者群体。出于多种原因，比特币可能会达到 100 万美元，但本周期不会。比特币可能达到数十亿美元的最明显方式是，如果在末日恶性通货膨胀的情况下，酒吧里的一瓶啤酒要花 10 万美元，但我不认为美元的消亡情景会发生，也不会出现任何经济末日。 -如果受到互联网专家的喜爱。或者，在理想的经济和地缘政治环境下，比特币在经历三次减半后可能会在 12 年内实现这一目标，但即便如此，这似乎也有些遥远。 10 倍值得等待，年复利约为 25%，但这并不是圣诞节前 100 万美元的比特币最大梦想。圣诞节前 100 万美元？没有。

$1m, one day sometime in the long future… maybe.

100 万美元，在遥远的未来的某个时候……也许吧。

There is a fundamental problem I spotted when chatting with Davin Linn on his YouTube channel debating bitcoin maxi Samson Mow:

当我在 YouTube 频道上与 Davin Linn 讨论比特币 maxi Samson Mow 聊天时，我发现了一个基本问题：

A question crypto denizens should ask is, Is bitcoin likely to be the dominant crypto forever? Will the first crypto, like Neo in the Matrix, be ‘The One.’ It is possible but the opposite is also possible. The mere possibility of bitcoin being superseded seriously undermines the $1m a coin idea under normal economic circumstances.

加密货币居民应该问的一个问题是，比特币有可能永远成为加密货币的主导地位吗？第一个加密货币会像《黑客帝国》中的 Neo 一样，是“The One”吗？这是可能的，但相反的情况也是可能的。在正常经济情况下，仅仅比特币被取代的可能性就严重破坏了 100 万美元硬币的想法。

My reservations are added to by not being a fan of deflationary money. Hard money doesn’t have a great record. In the good old, bad old days, economies were ‘crucified on a cross of gold’ and one only needs to read up on the ‘free silver’ movement in the US late 1800s to see that all that glitters is not necessarily good currency. The history of money is great reading and anyone planning to be all in on bitcoin at $100,000 should read up on it before sinking the kids’ college tuition in bitcoin.

我不喜欢通货紧缩货币，这让我更加持保留态度。硬通货的记录并不好。在过去的好日子和坏日子里，经济都被“钉在黄金的十字架上”，人们只需读一读1800年代末美国的“自由白银”运动就会发现，所有闪闪发光的不一定都是好货币。货币的历史是一本很好的读物，任何打算以 10 万美元投资比特币的人都应该在用比特币支付孩子的大学学费之前先读读这本书。

I do hold crypto, I do enjoy crypto, I have been very bullish the last three crypto winters and bearish the following peaks, so I’m no ‘rat poison squared’ disbeliever boomer. I’m not even an anti ‘this time it’s different’ guy. I’m a buy low sell high fella and for this cycle BTC is no longer low.

我确实持有加密货币，我确实喜欢加密货币，在过去的三个加密货币冬天我一直非常看好，并看跌接下来的高峰，所以我不是“老鼠药平方”不相信的婴儿潮一代。我什至不是一个反对“这次不一样”的人。我是一个低买高卖的人，在这个周期中，比特币不再处于低位。

So this is the road map for all seasons. For bull, for bear and super bear. It’s a map to help you follow what you see, in what comes next in bitcoin, not what you think will happen next. Bitcoin will follow one of these trajectories and as it does you will get a clearer picture of the likely outcome:

所以这就是所有季节的路线图。对于牛市、熊市和超级熊市。这是一张地图，可以帮助您跟踪您所看到的、比特币接下来会发生的事情，而不是您认为接下来会发生的事情。比特币将遵循以下轨迹之一，这样您就会更清楚地了解可能的结果：

The bitcoin chart with three possible trajectories to watch out for

比特币图表需要关注三种可能的轨迹

The current level is faintly bearish, so it’s best to see the current trend as a level of stability awaiting the next development. Bull or bear will be revealed and then the trend with be strong and directional. The market doesn’t listen to us so we must listen to it.

当前水平略显看跌，因此最好将当前趋势视为等待下一步发展的稳定水平。牛市或熊市将会显露出来，然后趋势将变得强劲且有方向性。市场不听我们的，所以我们必须听它的。

For traders this is heaven, for BTC maxis it should be of no interest, for medium term investors it is a hold or sell moment. To me 70/30 this is the top, so I’ve been easing out. At the previous level it was a hold and pray, at this level it’s a derisking moment.

对于交易者来说，这是天堂，对于 BTC maxis 来说，这应该没有兴趣，对于中期投资者来说，这是持有或卖出的时刻。对我来说 70/30 这是顶部，所以我一直在放松。在之前的级别上，这是一个等待和祈祷的时刻，在这个级别上，这是一个去风险的时刻。

Trump is now ‘in’, will it be a ‘sell on news’ moment? Who knows but for sure Trump-ology is going to be big business in the markets going forwards and his impact will be outsize in any instrument you play. Trump is bound to be less bad for bitcoin than the Democrats and their ‘chokepoints’ and could lead to a flowering of blockchain applications that for years now have been suffocated by the regulators. This is where the next jumbo crypto returns will occur, so that is where I’ll be scouring the landscape for opportunities. Many crypto investors don’t want to acknowledge yet another crypto winter will be upon us but a classic BTC pull back won’t matter because the next cycle will kick off soon enough.

特朗普现在“上台”了，这会是一个“新闻抛售”时刻吗？谁知道呢，但可以肯定的是，特朗普学将在未来的市场中成为大生意，他的影响力将在你所使用的任何工具中产生巨大影响。特朗普对比特币的影响肯定不会像民主党及其“瓶颈”那么严重，并且可能会导致多年来一直被监管机构扼杀的区块链应用的蓬勃发展。这就是下一次巨额加密货币回报将发生的地方，因此我将在那里寻找机会。许多加密货币投资者不想承认又一个加密货币冬天即将来临，但经典的 BTC 回调并不重要，因为下一个周期很快就会开始。