比特幣今年將突破 100 萬美元？不是這個週期

如你所知，我對加密貨幣持看跌態度，目前認為我們已經接近頂部，甚至可能已經看到了它。

A cryptocurrency illustration shows the Bitcoin dropping down to the fall with the growth sign ... [+]

加密貨幣插圖顯示比特幣隨著成長跡象而下跌... [+]

As you know I’m a bear on crypto, at this point thinking we are near the top or perhaps have even seen it. At the extreme end of my positive expectations I am a minor bull with $120,000 remaining my target for the top with perhaps an overshoot approaching $150,000. These high targets are not particularly likely in my mind and now is the time to risk for those that can afford a large pull back.

如你所知，我對加密貨幣持看跌態度，目前認為我們已經接近頂部，甚至可能已經看到了它。在我積極預期的極端情況下，我是一個小牛市，12 萬美元仍然是我的頂部目標，可能會超出接近 15 萬美元。在我看來，這些高目標不太可能實現，現在是那些能夠承受大幅回檔的人冒險的時候了。

I am not a believer in the ‘bitcoin to a mil this year’ group of acolytes. Bitcoin could hit $1m, for several reasons, but not this cycle. The most obvious way bitcoin could get to billions and zillions is if a beer in a bar costs $100,000 in a doomster hyper-inflation scenario, but I don’t expect the death of the dollar scenario to play out or any of the economic Armageddon what-ifs so loved by internet pundits. Alternatively, bitcoin after another three halvenings could get there in 12 years with ideal economic and geo-political circumstances, but even that seems a stretch. That x10 would be worth waiting for and about a 25% yearly compounding, but it’s not the bitcoin maxi dream of $1m by Christmas. $1m by Christmas? Nope.

我不相信「比特幣今年會漲到一百萬」的追隨者群體。出於多種原因，比特幣可能會達到 100 萬美元，但本週期不會。比特幣可能達到數十億美元的最明顯方式是，如果在末日惡性通貨膨脹的情況下，酒吧裡的一瓶啤酒要花10 萬美元，但我不認為美元的消亡情景會發生，也不會出現任何經濟末日。或者，在理想的經濟和地緣政治環境下，比特幣在經歷三次減半後可能會在 12 年內實現這一目標，但即便如此，這似乎也有些遙遠。 10 倍值得等待，年復一年約 25%，但這並不是聖誕節前 100 萬美元的比特幣最大夢想。聖誕節前 100 萬美元？沒有。

$1m, one day sometime in the long future… maybe.

100 萬美元，在遙遠的未來的某個時候……也許吧。

There is a fundamental problem I spotted when chatting with Davin Linn on his YouTube channel debating bitcoin maxi Samson Mow:

當我在 YouTube 頻道上與 Davin Linn 討論比特幣 maxi Samson Mow 聊天時，我發現了一個基本問題：

A question crypto denizens should ask is, Is bitcoin likely to be the dominant crypto forever? Will the first crypto, like Neo in the Matrix, be ‘The One.’ It is possible but the opposite is also possible. The mere possibility of bitcoin being superseded seriously undermines the $1m a coin idea under normal economic circumstances.

加密貨幣居民應該問的一個問題是，比特幣有可能永遠成為加密貨幣的主導地位嗎？第一個加密貨幣會像《駭客任務》中的 Neo 一樣，是「The One」嗎？這是可能的，但相反的情況也是可能的。在正常經濟情況下，僅僅比特幣被取代的可能性就嚴重破壞了 100 萬美元硬幣的想法。

My reservations are added to by not being a fan of deflationary money. Hard money doesn’t have a great record. In the good old, bad old days, economies were ‘crucified on a cross of gold’ and one only needs to read up on the ‘free silver’ movement in the US late 1800s to see that all that glitters is not necessarily good currency. The history of money is great reading and anyone planning to be all in on bitcoin at $100,000 should read up on it before sinking the kids’ college tuition in bitcoin.

我不喜歡通貨緊縮貨幣，這讓我更持保留態度。硬通貨的記錄並不好。在過去的好日子和壞日子裡，經濟都被“釘在黃金的十字架上”，人們只需讀一讀1800年代末美國的“自由白銀”運動就會發現，所有閃閃發光的不一定都是好貨幣。貨幣的歷史是一本很好的讀物，任何打算以 10 萬美元投資比特幣的人都應該在用比特幣支付孩子的大學學費之前先讀讀這本書。

I do hold crypto, I do enjoy crypto, I have been very bullish the last three crypto winters and bearish the following peaks, so I’m no ‘rat poison squared’ disbeliever boomer. I’m not even an anti ‘this time it’s different’ guy. I’m a buy low sell high fella and for this cycle BTC is no longer low.

我確實持有加密貨幣，我確實喜歡加密貨幣，在過去的三個加密貨幣冬天我一直非常看好，並看跌接下來的高峰，所以我不是“老鼠藥平方”不相信的嬰兒潮一代。我甚至不是一個反對「這次不一樣」的人。我是一個低買高賣的人，在這個週期中，比特幣不再處於低位。

So this is the road map for all seasons. For bull, for bear and super bear. It’s a map to help you follow what you see, in what comes next in bitcoin, not what you think will happen next. Bitcoin will follow one of these trajectories and as it does you will get a clearer picture of the likely outcome:

所以這是所有季節的路線圖。對於牛市、熊市和超級熊市。這是一張地圖，可以幫助您追蹤您所看到的、比特幣接下來會發生的事情，而不是您認為接下來會發生的事情。比特幣將遵循以下軌跡之一，這樣您就會更清楚地了解可能的結果：

The bitcoin chart with three possible trajectories to watch out for

比特幣圖表需要專注在三種可能的軌跡

The current level is faintly bearish, so it’s best to see the current trend as a level of stability awaiting the next development. Bull or bear will be revealed and then the trend with be strong and directional. The market doesn’t listen to us so we must listen to it.

目前水準略顯看跌，因此最好將當前趨勢視為等待下一步發展的穩定水準。牛市或熊市將會顯露出來，然後趨勢將變得強勁且有方向性。市場不聽我們的，所以我們必須聽它的。

For traders this is heaven, for BTC maxis it should be of no interest, for medium term investors it is a hold or sell moment. To me 70/30 this is the top, so I’ve been easing out. At the previous level it was a hold and pray, at this level it’s a derisking moment.

對於交易者來說，這是天堂，對於 BTC maxis 來說，這應該沒有興趣，對於中期投資者來說，這是持有或賣出的時刻。對我來說 70/30 這是頂部，所以我一直在放鬆。在之前的層面上，這是一個等待和祈禱的時刻，在這個層面上，這是一個去風險的時刻。

Trump is now ‘in’, will it be a ‘sell on news’ moment? Who knows but for sure Trump-ology is going to be big business in the markets going forwards and his impact will be outsize in any instrument you play. Trump is bound to be less bad for bitcoin than the Democrats and their ‘chokepoints’ and could lead to a flowering of blockchain applications that for years now have been suffocated by the regulators. This is where the next jumbo crypto returns will occur, so that is where I’ll be scouring the landscape for opportunities. Many crypto investors don’t want to acknowledge yet another crypto winter will be upon us but a classic BTC pull back won’t matter because the next cycle will kick off soon enough.

川普現在「上台」了，這會是一個「新聞拋售」時刻嗎？誰知道呢，但可以肯定的是，川普學將在未來的市場中成為大生意，他的影響力將在你所使用的任何工具中產生巨大影響。川普對比特幣的影響肯定不會像民主黨及其「瓶頸」那麼嚴重，並且可能會導致多年來一直被監管機構扼殺的區塊鏈應用的蓬勃發展。這就是下一次巨額加密貨幣回報將發生的地方，因此我將在那裡尋找機會。許多加密貨幣投資者不想承認另一個加密貨幣冬天即將來臨，但經典的 BTC 回檔並不重要，因為下一個週期很快就會開始。