Ki Young Ju：比特币可能在 2030 年左右被用作“货币”

中本聪在白皮书中将比特币描述为“纯粹的点对点版本的电子现金”，并透露他打算将比特币用于交易

Satoshi Nakamoto described Bitcoin in the whitepaper as a “purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash,” revealing his intention for BTC to be used for transactions, not as digital gold or a hedge against inflation.

中本聪在白皮书中将比特币描述为“纯粹的点对点版本的电子现金”，透露了他希望比特币用于交易的意图，而不是作为数字黄金或对冲通胀的工具。

Now, an industry expert believes that this payments vision will be a reality by 2030.

现在，一位行业专家认为，这一支付愿景将在 2030 年成为现实。

Ki Young Ju, the founder of blockchain analytics company Crypto Quant, took to Twitter on Monday to share his thoughts on Bitcoin's future as a currency.

区块链分析公司 Crypto Quant 的创始人 Ki Young Ju 周一在 Twitter 上分享了他对比特币作为货币未来的看法。

“Bitcoin will likely be used as a currency around 2030,” he wrote.

“比特币可能会在 2030 年左右被用作货币，”他写道。

#Bitcoin will likely be used as a "currency" around 2030.

#比特币可能会在 2030 年左右被用作“货币”。

Bitcoin's mining difficulty, which reflects the intensity of competition, has consistently hit all-time highs, increasing by 378% over the past three years.

反映竞争激烈程度的比特币挖矿难度持续创历史新高，在过去三年中增加了 378%。

While 50 BTC could be mined with a single PC in 2009, it has… pic.twitter.com/lY8pRreZCl

虽然 2009 年一台 PC 就可以开采 50 BTC，但它已经…… pic.twitter.com/lY8pRreZCl

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 24, 2024

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2024 年 10 月 24 日

Ju's argument relies on the rise of BTC’s mining difficulty, which has surged by over 350% in the past three years. This mining difficulty has made it nearly impossible for small home-based miners to compete and has made it a preserve of the mining giants, some of whom trade publicly.

Ju的论点依赖于BTC挖矿难度的上升，在过去三年里，挖矿难度飙升了350%以上。这种采矿困难使得小型家庭矿商几乎不可能参与竞争，并使其成为矿业巨头的保留地，其中一些矿业巨头进行公开交易。

Ju posits that as institutional involvement grows, entry barriers will rise, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility and its appeal as an investment asset. By the 2028 halving, Bitcoin's potential as a low-volatility currency will increase.

Ju认为，随着机构参与的增加，进入壁垒将会上升，从而降低比特币的波动性及其作为投资资产的吸引力。到 2028 年减半，比特币作为低波动性货币的潜力将会增加。

Bitcoin as Currency

比特币作为货币

A dip in volatility alone isn't enough to make BTC a currency. Ju adds that by 2030, payment companies led by Stripe will make it easier to integrate crypto payments, starting with stablecoins. Stripe recently launched USDC payments for users in 150 countries.

仅波动性下降不足以让比特币成为一种货币。 Ju 补充道，到 2030 年，以 Stripe 为首的支付公司将从稳定币开始，让加密支付的整合变得更加容易。 Stripe 最近为 150 个国家的用户推出了 USDC 支付。

Ju believes that other major fintechs will join Stripe, and “with regulations in place, they are expected to drive the mass adoption of stablecoins within three years.”

Ju相信，其他主要金融科技公司也将加入Stripe，“随着监管到位，他们预计将在三年内推动稳定币的大规模采用。”

Ju's argument also rests on anticipation that crypto wallets will become more popular as stablecoin adoption rises. Today, using a crypto wallet can be complex for newbies, especially since they have to be responsible for their private keys and seed phrases, and losing these could be catastrophic. Wallet developers must find ways to make it much easier and convenient for users to hold crypto.

Ju 的论点还基于这样的预期：随着稳定币采用的增加，加密钱包将变得更加流行。如今，使用加密钱包对于新手来说可能很复杂，特别是因为他们必须对自己的私钥和助记词负责，丢失这些可能会造成灾难性的后果。钱包开发人员必须找到让用户更轻松、更方便地持有加密货币的方法。

Ju adds that by around April 2028, during the next halving, Bitcoin’s potential use as a “currency” will start to be seriously discussed as volatility decreases further and the ecosystem matures.

Ju补充说，到2028年4月左右，在下一次减半期间，随着波动性进一步降低和生态系统成熟，比特币作为“货币”的潜在用途将开始受到认真讨论。

Ju's argument is ambitious, to say the least. For one, few look at BTC as a currency; in fact, its selling point with most investors is that it’s digital gold. Changing this narrative would be difficult, and it could lead to a loss of interest from investors.

至少可以说，鞠的论点是雄心勃勃的。首先，很少有人将 BTC 视为一种货币；事实上，它对大多数投资者的卖点是它是数字黄金。改变这种说法很困难，而且可能会导致投资者失去兴趣。

Even if everything panned out, BTC is still not equipped to handle massive transactions. Take Visa, for instance: in 2023, the payments giant processed 720 million transactions daily. BTC, on the other hand, processes less than 0.1% of this.

即使一切顺利，比特币仍然不具备处理大规模交易的能力。以 Visa 为例：2023 年，这家支付巨头每天处理 7.2 亿笔交易。另一方面，BTC 处理的数据不到 0.1%。

Still, through L2s and wrapped BTC on other blockchain networks, Bitcoin can scale.

尽管如此，通过 L2 和其他区块链网络上的打包 BTC，比特币可以扩展。

BTC trades at $67,561 at press time, gaining 2% in the past day for a $1.34 trillion market cap.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 67,561 美元，过去一天上涨 2%，市值达到 1.34 万亿美元。