Ki Young Ju：比特幣可能在 2030 年左右被用作“貨幣”

中本聰在白皮書中將比特幣描述為“純粹的點對點版本的電子現金”，並透露他打算將比特幣用於交易

Satoshi Nakamoto described Bitcoin in the whitepaper as a “purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash,” revealing his intention for BTC to be used for transactions, not as digital gold or a hedge against inflation.

中本聰在白皮書中將比特幣描述為“純粹的點對點版本的電子現金”，透露了他希望比特幣用於交易的意圖，而不是作為數位黃金或對沖通膨的工具。

Now, an industry expert believes that this payments vision will be a reality by 2030.

現在，一位行業專家認為，這個支付願景將在 2030 年成為現實。

Ki Young Ju, the founder of blockchain analytics company Crypto Quant, took to Twitter on Monday to share his thoughts on Bitcoin's future as a currency.

區塊鏈分析公司 Crypto Quant 的創始人 Ki Young Ju 週一在 Twitter 上分享了他對比特幣作為貨幣未來的看法。

“Bitcoin will likely be used as a currency around 2030,” he wrote.

「比特幣可能會在 2030 年左右被用作貨幣，」他寫道。

#Bitcoin will likely be used as a "currency" around 2030.

#比特幣可能會在 2030 年左右被用作「貨幣」。

Bitcoin's mining difficulty, which reflects the intensity of competition, has consistently hit all-time highs, increasing by 378% over the past three years.

反映競爭激烈程度的比特幣挖礦難度持續創歷史新高，在過去三年增加了 378%。

While 50 BTC could be mined with a single PC in 2009, it has… pic.twitter.com/lY8pRreZCl

雖然 2009 年一台 PC 就可以開採 50 BTC，但它已經… pic.twitter.com/lY8pRreZCl

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 24, 2024

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2024 年 10 月 24 日

Ju's argument relies on the rise of BTC’s mining difficulty, which has surged by over 350% in the past three years. This mining difficulty has made it nearly impossible for small home-based miners to compete and has made it a preserve of the mining giants, some of whom trade publicly.

Ju的論點依賴BTC挖礦難度的上升，在過去三年裡，挖礦難度飆升了350%以上。這種採礦困難使得小型家庭礦商幾乎不可能參與競爭，並使其成為礦業巨頭的保留地，其中一些礦業巨頭進行公開交易。

Ju posits that as institutional involvement grows, entry barriers will rise, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility and its appeal as an investment asset. By the 2028 halving, Bitcoin's potential as a low-volatility currency will increase.

Ju認為，隨著機構參與的增加，進入障礙將會上升，從而降低比特幣的波動性及其作為投資資產的吸引力。到 2028 年減半，比特幣作為低波動性貨幣的潛力將會增加。

Bitcoin as Currency

比特幣作為貨幣

A dip in volatility alone isn't enough to make BTC a currency. Ju adds that by 2030, payment companies led by Stripe will make it easier to integrate crypto payments, starting with stablecoins. Stripe recently launched USDC payments for users in 150 countries.

僅波動性下降不足以讓比特幣成為一種貨幣。 Ju 補充道，到 2030 年，以 Stripe 為首的支付公司將從穩定幣開始，讓加密支付的整合變得更加容易。 Stripe 最近為 150 個國家的用戶推出了 USDC 支付。

Ju believes that other major fintechs will join Stripe, and “with regulations in place, they are expected to drive the mass adoption of stablecoins within three years.”

Ju相信，其他主要金融科技公司也將加入Stripe，“隨著監管到位，他們預計將在三年內推動穩定幣的大規模採用。”

Ju's argument also rests on anticipation that crypto wallets will become more popular as stablecoin adoption rises. Today, using a crypto wallet can be complex for newbies, especially since they have to be responsible for their private keys and seed phrases, and losing these could be catastrophic. Wallet developers must find ways to make it much easier and convenient for users to hold crypto.

Ju 的論點也基於這樣的預期：隨著穩定幣採用的增加，加密錢包將變得更加流行。如今，使用加密錢包對新手來說可能很複雜，特別是因為他們必須對自己的私鑰和助記詞負責，而失去這些可能會造成災難性的後果。錢包開發人員必須找到讓用戶更輕鬆、更方便持有加密貨幣的方法。

Ju adds that by around April 2028, during the next halving, Bitcoin’s potential use as a “currency” will start to be seriously discussed as volatility decreases further and the ecosystem matures.

Ju補充說，到2028年4月左右，在下一次減半期間，隨著波動性進一步降低和生態系統成熟，比特幣作為「貨幣」的潛在用途將開始受到認真討論。

Ju's argument is ambitious, to say the least. For one, few look at BTC as a currency; in fact, its selling point with most investors is that it’s digital gold. Changing this narrative would be difficult, and it could lead to a loss of interest from investors.

至少可以說，鞠的論點是雄心勃勃的。首先，很少有人將 BTC 視為一種貨幣；事實上，它對大多數投資者的賣點是它是數位黃金。改變這種說法很困難，而且可能會導致投資者失去興趣。

Even if everything panned out, BTC is still not equipped to handle massive transactions. Take Visa, for instance: in 2023, the payments giant processed 720 million transactions daily. BTC, on the other hand, processes less than 0.1% of this.

即使一切順利，比特幣仍然不具備處理大規模交易的能力。以 Visa 為例：2023 年，這家支付巨頭每天處理 7.2 億筆交易。另一方面，BTC 處理的數據不到 0.1%。

Still, through L2s and wrapped BTC on other blockchain networks, Bitcoin can scale.

儘管如此，透過 L2 和其他區塊鏈網路上的打包 BTC，比特幣可以擴展。

BTC trades at $67,561 at press time, gaining 2% in the past day for a $1.34 trillion market cap.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 67,561 美元，過去一天上漲 2%，市值達到 1.34 兆美元。