比特币和其他加密货币非常波动

自引入以来，在过去的15年中，比特币和其他加密货币一直非常波动。这些数字资产经常被吹捧

Crypto assets such as Bitcoin and other digital coins have been known for their volatility, especially during periods of market upheaval.

比特币和其他数字硬币等加密资产以其波动而闻名，尤其是在市场动荡时期。

As investors process the implications of tariffs on the economy and anticipate a potential recession, crypto assets are also facing volatility in 2025.

随着投资者处理关税对经济的影响并预期潜在的衰退，加密资产在2025年也面临着波动。

As of April 10, Bitcoin had declined about 27 percent from its January 2025 all-time high, compared to about an 18 percent decline for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

截至4月10日，比特币从2025年1月的历史最高点上下降了约27％，而纳斯达克越来越多的纳斯达克综合材料下降了约18％。

Here’s how Bitcoin and other crypto assets might fare in an economic downturn.

这是比特币和其他加密资产在经济不景气中的表现。

Crypto is no safe haven

加密不是避风港

As investors consider the possibilities of a recession, many are seeking assets to protect them from the potential storm. However, experts say crypto isn’t the place to find it.

当投资者认为经济衰退的可能性时，许多人正在寻求资产来保护他们免受潜在风暴的侵害。但是，专家说，加密货币不是找到它的地方。

“I’m not sure crypto can be considered a safe haven given its volatility,” says Scott Sheridan, CEO of online brokerage firm tastytrade.

在线经纪公司TastyTytrade首席执行官Scott Sheridan说：“我不确定加密货币是否可以被视为避风港。”

Popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted over 70 percent from their all-time highs when investors shied away from risk assets following the rise in interest rates in 2022. But crypto eventually recovered, and Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark as investors welcomed a crypto-friendly approach by the Trump administration.

当投资者在2022年利率上升之后撤离风险资产时，诸如比特币和以太坊等流行的加密货币跌至70％以上。但是加密货币最终恢复了，比特币恢复了100,000美元的投资者，因为投资者欢迎特朗普政府对加密友好的友好型采用。

“Bitcoin tends to show a positive correlation with the stock market, so from that point of view, a move in step with other risk assets makes sense,” says Julius de Kempenaer, founder of RRG Research.

RRG Research的创始人Julius de Kempenaer说：“比特币倾向于与股票市场显示正相关，因此从这个角度来看，与其他风险资产的一步一步有意义。”

The countervailing force here is how the Fed is likely to respond if and when it becomes clear that a recession is underway. The central bank could reduce interest rates to help stimulate the economy, which might help put a floor under crypto prices. That factor, however, would need to combat the natural tendency of traders to avoid risk in a recessionary environment.

这里的反击力量是美联储在明显衰退正在进行的情况下可能会做出的反应。中央银行可以降低利率以帮助刺激经济，这可能有助于将地板置于加密价格。但是，这一因素需要与交易者的自然趋势作斗争，以避免在衰退环境中避免风险。

“During times of uncertainty, investors’ risk tolerance and investing habits tend to become more conservative as speculative trading becomes less desirable,” says Dan Raju, CEO of brokerage platform Tradier.

经纪平台Tradier的首席执行官Dan Raju说：“在不确定性时期，随着投机性交易变得不那么理想，投资者的风险承受能力和投资习惯往往会变得更加保守。”

And don’t assume that Bitcoin – the bellwether for the crypto industry – will perform the same as other cryptos in a recession. What affects the most popular cryptocurrency may not have any impact on less-followed names.

而且，不要以为比特币（加密货币行业的领头羊）的表现将与经济衰退中的其他加密货币相同。影响最受欢迎的加密货币的原因可能不会对较低的名称产生任何影响。

“The volatility across the universe is so vast that it will be difficult to apply this assumption to the entire crypto space,” says De Kempenaer.

De Kempenaer说：“整个宇宙的波动性如此之大，以至于很难将此假设应用于整个加密空间。”

No reliable way to value cryptocurrencies

没有可靠的方法来重视加密货币

In crypto trading, sentiment is an even more potent force than it is in the stock market. This is because cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value since they don’t produce anything for their owners. Your return is entirely dependent upon selling it to someone else at a higher price. Legendary investors, including Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger have strongly criticized the investment merits of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for this reason.

在加密交易中，情绪比股票市场更有效。这是因为加密货币没有内在价值，因为它们没有为所有者生产任何东西。您的回报完全取决于以更高的价格将其出售给他人。出于这个原因，包括沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和已故查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）在内的传奇投资者强烈批评比特币和其他加密货币的投资优点。

“Crypto is an investment in nothing,” Munger told the Australian Financial Review in an interview in July 2022. “I don’t want to buy a piece of nothing, even if somebody tells me they can’t make more of it.”

芒格（Munger）在2022年7月的一次采访中对《澳大利亚金融评论》（Australian Financial Review）表示：“加密货币是一项无所事事的投资。我不想买一块，即使有人告诉我他们不能做更多的事情。”

Even those with a more positive view of Bitcoin and crypto assets acknowledge that valuing the digital coins is challenging, if not impossible.

即使是那些对比特币和加密资产更积极的看法的人也承认，即使不是不可能，对数字硬币的评估也是具有挑战性的。

“There is no established way to value Bitcoin,” says Noelle Acheson, former head of market insights at crypto lender Genesis Global Trading. “It’s narrative-driven – narratives can shift on a dime.”

加密贷款人Genesis Global Trading的前市场见解负责人Noelle Acheson说：“没有既定的方法来重视比特币。” “这是叙事驱动的 - 叙事可以转移一角钱。”

Still, Acheson said she’s very bullish on the long-term prospects for Bitcoin. She sees a growing number of use cases for it and views it as an investment in new technology.

不过，阿奇森说，她对比特币的长期前景非常看涨。她看到了越来越多的用例，并将其视为对新技术的投资。

Crypto sentiment is difficult to predict

加密情绪很难预测

With the substantial decline in crypto assets already, traders may be wondering if the worst is behind us. But it can be difficult to predict what traders will do next.

随着加密资产的大幅下降，交易者可能想知道最糟糕的情况是否在我们身后。但是很难预测交易者接下来会做什么。

“The price of Bitcoin is not related to economic fundamentals, but [the] sentiment is,” Acheson says.

阿奇森说：“比特币的价格与经济基本面无关，但情绪是。”

Crypto sentiment got a boost when President Donald Trump returned to the White House and promised crypto-friendly policies. Here are some of the comments and moves he’s made so far:

当唐纳德·特朗普总统返回白宫并承诺对加密货币友好的政策时，加密情绪得到了推动。这是他到目前为止所做的一些评论和动作：

There’s no guarantee of a recession

不能保证经济衰退

Although fears of a recession have increased following new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, there’s no certainty that a recession will actually occur. Trump announced a 90-day deferment for most tariffs on April 9, which caused stocks and crypto to surge.

尽管在特朗普政府提出了新的关税之后，人们对经济衰退的担忧有所增加，但无法确定实际上会发生衰退。特朗普于4月9日宣布对大多数关税进行90天的延期，这导致股票和加密货币激增。

If the U.S. can navigate the uncertainty and manage an economic slowdown while avoiding a recession, traders’ sentiment on crypto and risk assets such as stocks may rebound. As risk appetite returns, crypto could be propelled higher.

如果美国可以在避免经济衰退的同时管理不确定性并管理经济放缓，那么交易者对加密货币和风险资产（例如股票）的情绪可能会反弹。随着风险胃口的回报，加密货币可能会被推动更高。

So some crypto proponents say not to worry too much about the broader macro issues and instead focus on individual cryptocurrencies that could do well.

因此，一些加密支持者说，不要太担心更广泛的宏观问题，而要专注于可以做得很好的单个加密货币。

“Solid digital asset projects with real-economic utility will fare well regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” says Dr. Martin Hiesboeck, head of blockchain

区块链负责人Martin Hiesboeck博士说：“具有实地实用程序的稳定数字资产项目都将井井有条。”