比特幣和其他加密貨幣非常波動

自引入以來，在過去的15年中，比特幣和其他加密貨幣一直非常波動。這些數字資產經常被吹捧

Crypto assets such as Bitcoin and other digital coins have been known for their volatility, especially during periods of market upheaval.

比特幣和其他數字硬幣等加密資產以其波動而聞名，尤其是在市場動盪時期。

As investors process the implications of tariffs on the economy and anticipate a potential recession, crypto assets are also facing volatility in 2025.

隨著投資者處理關稅對經濟的影響並預期潛在的衰退，加密資產在2025年也面臨著波動。

As of April 10, Bitcoin had declined about 27 percent from its January 2025 all-time high, compared to about an 18 percent decline for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

截至4月10日，比特幣從2025年1月的歷史最高點上下降了約27％，而納斯達克越來越多的納斯達克綜合材料下降了約18％。

Here’s how Bitcoin and other crypto assets might fare in an economic downturn.

這是比特幣和其他加密資產在經濟不景氣中的表現。

Crypto is no safe haven

加密不是避風港

As investors consider the possibilities of a recession, many are seeking assets to protect them from the potential storm. However, experts say crypto isn’t the place to find it.

當投資者認為經濟衰退的可能性時，許多人正在尋求資產來保護他們免受潛在風暴的侵害。但是，專家說，加密貨幣不是找到它的地方。

“I’m not sure crypto can be considered a safe haven given its volatility,” says Scott Sheridan, CEO of online brokerage firm tastytrade.

在線經紀公司TastyTytrade首席執行官Scott Sheridan說：“我不確定加密貨幣是否可以被視為避風港。”

Popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted over 70 percent from their all-time highs when investors shied away from risk assets following the rise in interest rates in 2022. But crypto eventually recovered, and Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark as investors welcomed a crypto-friendly approach by the Trump administration.

當投資者在2022年利率上升之後撤離風險資產時，諸如比特幣和以太坊等流行的加密貨幣跌至70％以上。但是加密貨幣最終恢復了，比特幣恢復了100,000美元的投資者，因為投資者歡迎特朗普政府對加密友好的友好型採用。

“Bitcoin tends to show a positive correlation with the stock market, so from that point of view, a move in step with other risk assets makes sense,” says Julius de Kempenaer, founder of RRG Research.

RRG Research的創始人Julius de Kempenaer說：“比特幣傾向於與股票市場顯示正相關，因此從這個角度來看，與其他風險資產的一步一步有意義。”

The countervailing force here is how the Fed is likely to respond if and when it becomes clear that a recession is underway. The central bank could reduce interest rates to help stimulate the economy, which might help put a floor under crypto prices. That factor, however, would need to combat the natural tendency of traders to avoid risk in a recessionary environment.

這裡的反擊力量是美聯儲在明顯衰退正在進行的情況下可能會做出的反應。中央銀行可以降低利率以幫助刺激經濟，這可能有助於將地板置於加密價格。但是，這一因素需要與交易者的自然趨勢作鬥爭，以避免在衰退環境中避免風險。

“During times of uncertainty, investors’ risk tolerance and investing habits tend to become more conservative as speculative trading becomes less desirable,” says Dan Raju, CEO of brokerage platform Tradier.

經紀平台Tradier的首席執行官Dan Raju說：“在不確定性時期，隨著投機性交易變得不那麼理想，投資者的風險承受能力和投資習慣往往會變得更加保守。”

And don’t assume that Bitcoin – the bellwether for the crypto industry – will perform the same as other cryptos in a recession. What affects the most popular cryptocurrency may not have any impact on less-followed names.

而且，不要以為比特幣（加密貨幣行業的領頭羊）的表現將與經濟衰退中的其他加密貨幣相同。影響最受歡迎的加密貨幣的原因可能不會對較低的名稱產生任何影響。

“The volatility across the universe is so vast that it will be difficult to apply this assumption to the entire crypto space,” says De Kempenaer.

De Kempenaer說：“整個宇宙的波動性如此之大，以至於很難將此假設應用於整個加密空間。”

No reliable way to value cryptocurrencies

沒有可靠的方法來重視加密貨幣

In crypto trading, sentiment is an even more potent force than it is in the stock market. This is because cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value since they don’t produce anything for their owners. Your return is entirely dependent upon selling it to someone else at a higher price. Legendary investors, including Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger have strongly criticized the investment merits of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for this reason.

在加密交易中，情緒比股票市場更有效。這是因為加密貨幣沒有內在價值，因為它們沒有為所有者生產任何東西。您的回報完全取決於以更高的價格將其出售給他人。出於這個原因，包括沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和已故查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）在內的傳奇投資者強烈批評比特幣和其他加密貨幣的投資優點。

“Crypto is an investment in nothing,” Munger told the Australian Financial Review in an interview in July 2022. “I don’t want to buy a piece of nothing, even if somebody tells me they can’t make more of it.”

芒格（Munger）在2022年7月的一次採訪中對《澳大利亞金融評論》（Australian Financial Review）表示：“加密貨幣是一項無所事事的投資。我不想買一塊，即使有人告訴我他們不能做更多的事情。”

Even those with a more positive view of Bitcoin and crypto assets acknowledge that valuing the digital coins is challenging, if not impossible.

即使是那些對比特幣和加密資產更積極的看法的人也承認，即使不是不可能，對數字硬幣的評估也是具有挑戰性的。

“There is no established way to value Bitcoin,” says Noelle Acheson, former head of market insights at crypto lender Genesis Global Trading. “It’s narrative-driven – narratives can shift on a dime.”

加密貸款人Genesis Global Trading的前市場見解負責人Noelle Acheson說：“沒有既定的方法來重視比特幣。” “這是敘事驅動的 - 敘事可以轉移一角錢。”

Still, Acheson said she’s very bullish on the long-term prospects for Bitcoin. She sees a growing number of use cases for it and views it as an investment in new technology.

不過，阿奇森說，她對比特幣的長期前景非常看漲。她看到了越來越多的用例，並將其視為對新技術的投資。

Crypto sentiment is difficult to predict

加密情緒很難預測

With the substantial decline in crypto assets already, traders may be wondering if the worst is behind us. But it can be difficult to predict what traders will do next.

隨著加密資產的大幅下降，交易者可能想知道最糟糕的情況是否在我們身後。但是很難預測交易者接下來會做什麼。

“The price of Bitcoin is not related to economic fundamentals, but [the] sentiment is,” Acheson says.

阿奇森說：“比特幣的價格與經濟基本面無關，但情緒是。”

Crypto sentiment got a boost when President Donald Trump returned to the White House and promised crypto-friendly policies. Here are some of the comments and moves he’s made so far:

當唐納德·特朗普總統返回白宮並承諾對加密貨幣友好的政策時，加密情緒得到了推動。這是他到目前為止所做的一些評論和動作：

There’s no guarantee of a recession

不能保證經濟衰退

Although fears of a recession have increased following new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, there’s no certainty that a recession will actually occur. Trump announced a 90-day deferment for most tariffs on April 9, which caused stocks and crypto to surge.

儘管在特朗普政府提出了新的關稅之後，人們對經濟衰退的擔憂有所增加，但無法確定實際上會發生衰退。特朗普於4月9日宣布對大多數關稅進行90天的延期，這導致股票和加密貨幣激增。

If the U.S. can navigate the uncertainty and manage an economic slowdown while avoiding a recession, traders’ sentiment on crypto and risk assets such as stocks may rebound. As risk appetite returns, crypto could be propelled higher.

如果美國可以在避免經濟衰退的同時管理不確定性並管理經濟放緩，那麼交易者對加密貨幣和風險資產（例如股票）的情緒可能會反彈。隨著風險胃口的回報，加密貨幣可能會被推動更高。

So some crypto proponents say not to worry too much about the broader macro issues and instead focus on individual cryptocurrencies that could do well.

因此，一些加密支持者說，不要太擔心更廣泛的宏觀問題，而要專注於可以做得很好的單個加密貨幣。

“Solid digital asset projects with real-economic utility will fare well regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” says Dr. Martin Hiesboeck, head of blockchain

區塊鏈負責人Martin Hiesboeck博士說：“具有實地實用程序的穩定數字資產項目都將井井有條。”