2025 年比特币和加密货币的下一步是什么？

人民币市场经历了不平凡的一年，随着新政府在华盛顿特区上任，市场参与者对 2025 年的前景持乐观态度，尽管仍然存在大量不确定性。

Key Takeaways

要点

The cryptocurrency market is poised for an exciting 2025, with market participants eagerly anticipating the impact of a new administration in Washington D.C. However, despite the optimism, several uncertainties continue to loom over the market.

加密货币市场即将迎来激动人心的 2025 年，市场参与者热切期待华盛顿特区新政府的影响。然而，尽管乐观，但一些不确定因素仍然笼罩着市场。

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) kicked off the year with a rally, fueled by the explosive demand for the newly launched spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Later in the year, a bitcoin halving, which slows the rate at which new bitcoins are created, led to a demand-supply imbalance that pushed prices up further.

在新推出的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的爆炸性需求的推动下，比特币（BTCUSD）以反弹拉开了今年的序幕。今年晚些时候，比特币减半降低了新比特币的创造速度，导致供需失衡，进一步推高价格。

The election of Donald Trump, along with several crypto-friendly lawmakers, gave bitcoin another boost in recent weeks, helping the digital currency cross the $100,000 price mark for the first time.

唐纳德·特朗普以及几位对加密货币友好的立法者的当选，在最近几周给比特币带来了又一次提振，帮助这种数字货币的价格首次突破了 10 万美元大关。

Here’s a look at what market participants will be keeping an eye on in the year ahead.

以下是市场参与者在未来一年将关注的内容。

Trump's Impact on Crypto Regulation

特朗普对加密货币监管的影响

One of the biggest concerns for the crypto market in recent years has been the lack of clarity around regulations and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) enforcement approach.

近年来加密货币市场最大的担忧之一是法规和美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的执法方法缺乏明确性。

On the campaign trail, Trump made several promises to the bitcoin and crypto industries, including firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one of his administration and establishing a ‘Strategic National Bitcoin Stockpile.’ Gensler decided to step down and Trump has proposed crypto advocate Paul Atkins to head the agency.

在竞选过程中，特朗普对比特币和加密行业做出了多项承诺，包括在其执政第一天解雇 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 以及建立“国家比特币战略储备”。 Gensler 决定辞职，特朗普已提议加密货币倡导者 Paul Atkins 担任该机构的负责人。

But even as markets await regulatory clarity, there's no guarantee they'll get what they want or when.

但即使市场等待监管明确，也不能保证他们会得到他们想要的或何时得到他们想要的。

"Trump’s stance on [decentralized finance (DeFi)] and crypto has been somewhat inconsistent," Delphi Ventures General Counsel Sarah Brennan told Investopedia. "While he has expressed interest in the space, much of his focus seems limited to supporting dollar dominance and real estate applications." The Bitcoin Dominance Index measures bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market valuation, and it recently hit new highs.

德尔福风投总法律顾问莎拉·布伦南 (Sarah Brennan) 告诉 Investopedia：“特朗普在[去中心化金融 (DeFi)] 和加密货币方面的立场有些不一致。” “虽然他表达了对该领域的兴趣，但他的大部分注意力似乎仅限于支持美元主导地位和房地产应用。”比特币主导指数衡量比特币在整个加密货币市场估值中所占的份额，该指数最近创下新高。

According to Castle Island Ventures Partner Nic Carter, the legislative focus will be on getting stablecoin legislation passed first. Then, the focus will turn to the crypto market structure bill, which would clarify which crypto assets are commodities and which are securities.

Castle Island Ventures 合伙人 Nic Carter 表示，立法重点将是首先通过稳定币立法。然后，焦点将转向加密货币市场结构法案，该法案将澄清哪些加密资产是商品，哪些是证券。

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Drivers

比特币价格预测和驱动因素

Analysts at Bitwise expect bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, while those at VanEck peg it at $180,000.

Bitwise 的分析师预计，到 2025 年底，比特币的价格将达到 20 万美元，而 VanEck 的分析师则将其定为 18 万美元。

Such predictions for bitcoin prices have been made many times in the past but seemed too ambitious. With bitcoin surging above $100,000, they may not seem so far-fetched now.

过去曾多次对比特币价格进行过此类预测，但似乎过于雄心勃勃。随着比特币飙升至 10 万美元以上，它们现在看起来可能并不那么牵强。

There are only 21 million bitcoins that can ever be created, and 19.79 million of them are already in circulation. While bitcoin supply is finite, demand for it has picked up.

比特币的总发行量只有 2100 万枚，其中 1979 万枚已经流通。尽管比特币的供应有限，但对其的需求却有所增加。

There is  growing demand for bitcoin from institutional investors that include ETF promoters, corporations and nation-states. Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen investors pour in $36 billion. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the leader for public companies holding bitcoin on its books, held 444,262 worth roughly $42 billion as of Dec. 23.

包括 ETF 发起人、企业和民族国家在内的机构投资者对比特币的需求不断增长。投资者已向现货比特币 ETF 投入 360 亿美元。 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 是账面上持有比特币的领先上市公司，截至 12 月 23 日，该公司持有 444,262 枚比特币，价值约 420 亿美元。

Historically, bitcoin—and by extension the entire crypto market—rises and falls in line with the four-year bitcoin halving cycle. If that cycle were to hold, crypto markets would be due for a correction in 2025. But the presence of large institutional investors could limit any downturn.

从历史上看，比特币以及整个加密货币市场的涨跌与四年的比特币减半周期一致。如果这个周期持续下去，加密货币市场将在 2025 年进行调整。但大型机构投资者的存在可能会限制任何低迷。

Bitcoin is in a “supercycle,” according to economist and Asgard Markets founder Alex Kruger, which means “recurrent 20%-40% corrections” instead of “85% drawdowns.”

经济学家兼 Asgard Markets 创始人 Alex Kruger 表示，比特币正处于“超级周期”，这意味着“经常出现 20%-40% 的修正”，而不是“85% 的回撤”。

The Federal Reserve could also crash bitcoin's party. The central bank recently scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, which weighed on bitcoin prices. If the Fed slows down its rate cuts, Treasury yields could remain high, making them more attractive to investors compared to riskier assets such as bitcoin.

美联储也可能会破坏比特币的盛宴。央行近期下调了2025年降息预期，这令比特币价格承压。如果美联储放慢降息步伐，美国国债收益率可能会保持在高位，与比特币等风险较高的资产相比，它们对投资者更具吸引力。

Will The Bitcoin Rally Spill Over to Altcoins?

比特币涨势会蔓延至山寨币吗？

Financial institutions are already taking steps to embrace a potentially friendlier regulatory environment by sending in applications for ETFs related to additional crypto assets, such as XRP (XRPUSD), moving beyond the previously approved ones for bitcoin and ether.

金融机构已经在采取措施，通过发送与 XRP (XRPUSD) 等其他加密资产相关的 ETF 申请来拥抱可能更加友好的监管环境，超越了之前批准的比特币和以太币申请。

But it remains to be seen if altcoins, or non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies, will join bitcoin’s party.

但山寨币或非比特币加密货币是否会加入比特币的行列还有待观察。

The Bitcoin Dominance Index, which measures bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market, recently hit new highs for this crypto cycle.

衡量比特币在整个加密市场份额的比特币主导指数最近创下了本加密周期的新高。

"Historically bitcoin dominance has been cyclical," CoinFund Managing Partner and Head of Liquid Investments Seth Ginns told Investopedia. "We’d expect a handoff to alts once bitcoin gets meaningfully above its all-time high, as happened in the last cycle."

CoinFund 管理合伙人兼流动性投资主管 Seth Ginns 告诉 Investopedia：“从历史上看，比特币的主导地位一直是周期性的。” “我们预计，一旦比特币大幅高于历史高点，就像上一个周期发生的那样，就会向替代品转移。”