2025 年比特幣和加密貨幣的下一步是什麼？

人民幣市場經歷了不平凡的一年，隨著新政府在華盛頓特區上任，市場參與者對 2025 年的前景持樂觀態度，儘管仍然存在大量不確定性。

Key Takeaways

重點

The cryptocurrency market is poised for an exciting 2025, with market participants eagerly anticipating the impact of a new administration in Washington D.C. However, despite the optimism, several uncertainties continue to loom over the market.

加密貨幣市場即將迎來令人興奮的 2025 年，市場參與者熱切期待華盛頓特區新政府的影響。

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) kicked off the year with a rally, fueled by the explosive demand for the newly launched spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Later in the year, a bitcoin halving, which slows the rate at which new bitcoins are created, led to a demand-supply imbalance that pushed prices up further.

在新推出的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的爆炸性需求的推動下，比特幣（BTCUSD）以反彈拉開了今年的序幕。今年晚些時候，比特幣減半降低了新比特幣的創造速度，導致供需失衡，進一步推高價格。

The election of Donald Trump, along with several crypto-friendly lawmakers, gave bitcoin another boost in recent weeks, helping the digital currency cross the $100,000 price mark for the first time.

唐納德·川普以及幾位對加密貨幣友好的立法者的當選，在最近幾週給比特幣帶來了又一次提振，幫助這種數位貨幣的價格首次突破了 10 萬美元大關。

Here’s a look at what market participants will be keeping an eye on in the year ahead.

以下是市場參與者在未來一年將關注的內容。

Trump's Impact on Crypto Regulation

川普對加密貨幣監管的影響

One of the biggest concerns for the crypto market in recent years has been the lack of clarity around regulations and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) enforcement approach.

近年來加密貨幣市場最大的擔憂之一是法規和美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的執法方法缺乏明確性。

On the campaign trail, Trump made several promises to the bitcoin and crypto industries, including firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one of his administration and establishing a ‘Strategic National Bitcoin Stockpile.’ Gensler decided to step down and Trump has proposed crypto advocate Paul Atkins to head the agency.

在競選過程中，川普對比特幣和加密行業做出了多項承諾，包括在其執政第一天解僱 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 以及建立「國家比特幣戰略儲備」。 Gensler 決定辭職，川普已提議加密貨幣倡導者 Paul Atkins 擔任該機構的負責人。

But even as markets await regulatory clarity, there's no guarantee they'll get what they want or when.

但即使市場等待監管明確，也不能保證他們會得到他們想要的東西或何時得到他們想要的東西。

"Trump’s stance on [decentralized finance (DeFi)] and crypto has been somewhat inconsistent," Delphi Ventures General Counsel Sarah Brennan told Investopedia. "While he has expressed interest in the space, much of his focus seems limited to supporting dollar dominance and real estate applications." The Bitcoin Dominance Index measures bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market valuation, and it recently hit new highs.

德爾福風投總法律顧問莎拉·布倫南 (Sarah Brennan) 告訴 Investopedia：“川普在[去中心化金融 (DeFi)] 和加密貨幣方面的立場有些不一致。” “雖然他表達了對該領域的興趣，但他的大部分注意力似乎僅限於支持美元主導地位和房地產應用。”比特幣主導指數衡量比特幣在整個加密貨幣市場估值中的份額，該指數最近創下新高。

According to Castle Island Ventures Partner Nic Carter, the legislative focus will be on getting stablecoin legislation passed first. Then, the focus will turn to the crypto market structure bill, which would clarify which crypto assets are commodities and which are securities.

Castle Island Ventures 合夥人 Nic Carter 表示，立法重點將是先通過穩定幣立法。然後，焦點將轉向加密貨幣市場結構法案，該法案將澄清哪些加密資產是商品，哪些是證券。

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Drivers

比特幣價格預測與驅動因素

Analysts at Bitwise expect bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, while those at VanEck peg it at $180,000.

Bitwise 的分析師預計，到 2025 年底，比特幣的價格將達到 20 萬美元，而 VanEck 的分析師將其定為 18 萬美元。

Such predictions for bitcoin prices have been made many times in the past but seemed too ambitious. With bitcoin surging above $100,000, they may not seem so far-fetched now.

過去曾多次對比特幣價格進行過此類預測，但似乎過於雄心勃勃。隨著比特幣飆升至 10 萬美元以上，它們現在看起來可能不那麼牽強。

There are only 21 million bitcoins that can ever be created, and 19.79 million of them are already in circulation. While bitcoin supply is finite, demand for it has picked up.

比特幣的總發行量只有 2,100 萬枚，其中 1,979 萬枚已經流通。儘管比特幣的供應有限，但對其的需求卻增加。

There is  growing demand for bitcoin from institutional investors that include ETF promoters, corporations and nation-states. Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen investors pour in $36 billion. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the leader for public companies holding bitcoin on its books, held 444,262 worth roughly $42 billion as of Dec. 23.

包括 ETF 發起人、企業和民族國家在內的機構投資者對比特幣的需求不斷增長。投資者已向現貨比特幣 ETF 投入 360 億美元。 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 是帳面上持有比特幣的領先上市公司，截至 12 月 23 日，該公司持有 444,262 枚比特幣，價值約 420 億美元。

Historically, bitcoin—and by extension the entire crypto market—rises and falls in line with the four-year bitcoin halving cycle. If that cycle were to hold, crypto markets would be due for a correction in 2025. But the presence of large institutional investors could limit any downturn.

從歷史上看，比特幣以及整個加密貨幣市場的漲跌與四年的比特幣減半週期一致。如果這個週期持續下去，加密貨幣市場將在 2025 年進行調整。

Bitcoin is in a “supercycle,” according to economist and Asgard Markets founder Alex Kruger, which means “recurrent 20%-40% corrections” instead of “85% drawdowns.”

經濟學家兼 Asgard Markets 創始人 Alex Kruger 表示，比特幣正處於“超級週期”，這意味著“經常出現 20%-40% 的修正”，而不是“85% 的回撤”。

The Federal Reserve could also crash bitcoin's party. The central bank recently scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, which weighed on bitcoin prices. If the Fed slows down its rate cuts, Treasury yields could remain high, making them more attractive to investors compared to riskier assets such as bitcoin.

聯準會也可能會破壞比特幣的盛宴。央行近期下調了2025年降息預期，令比特幣價格承壓。如果聯準會放慢降息步伐，美國公債殖利率可能會維持在高位，與比特幣等風險較高的資產相比，它們對投資者更具吸引力。

Will The Bitcoin Rally Spill Over to Altcoins?

比特幣漲勢會蔓延至山寨幣嗎？

Financial institutions are already taking steps to embrace a potentially friendlier regulatory environment by sending in applications for ETFs related to additional crypto assets, such as XRP (XRPUSD), moving beyond the previously approved ones for bitcoin and ether.

金融機構已經在採取措施，透過發送與 XRP (XRPUSD) 等其他加密資產相關的 ETF 申請來擁抱可能更加友善的監管環境，超越了先前批准的比特幣和以太幣申請。

But it remains to be seen if altcoins, or non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies, will join bitcoin’s party.

但山寨幣或非比特幣加密貨幣是否會加入比特幣的行列還有待觀察。

The Bitcoin Dominance Index, which measures bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market, recently hit new highs for this crypto cycle.

衡量比特幣在整個加密市場份額的比特幣主導指數最近創下了本加密週期的新高。

"Historically bitcoin dominance has been cyclical," CoinFund Managing Partner and Head of Liquid Investments Seth Ginns told Investopedia. "We’d expect a handoff to alts once bitcoin gets meaningfully above its all-time high, as happened in the last cycle."

CoinFund 管理合夥人兼流動性投資主管 Seth Ginns 告訴 Investopedia：“從歷史上看，比特幣的主導地位一直是周期性的。” “我們預計，一旦比特幣大幅高於歷史高點，就像上一個週期發生的那樣，就會向替代品轉移。”