比特币（Crypto：BTC）在2025年大大胜过黄金

在一年中，黄金上涨了30％，现在正在以历史新高的高点进行交易。在所有关税不确定性中，投资者正在寻找安全避风港

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has largely outperformed gold in 2025. For the year, gold is up 30% and is now trading at all-time highs. Amidst all the tariff uncertainty, investors are searching out safe havens to preserve the value of their money, and gold is arguably the safest of all safe havens.

比特币（Crypto：BTC）在2025年大大胜过黄金。在这一年中，黄金上涨了30％，现在在历史新高的高点上交易。在所有关税的不确定性中，投资者正在寻找安全避风港以保持其资金的价值，黄金可以说是所有安全避风港中最安全的。

But don't sleep on Bitcoin. The "digital gold" narrative is making a comeback, and Bitcoin recently regained the $90,000 price level for the first time in several weeks. So which is the better investment right now: Bitcoin or gold?

但是不要睡在比特币上。 “数字黄金”的叙述正在卷土重来，比特币最近在几周内首次重新获得了90,000美元的价格水平。那么，现在哪个更好的投资是：比特币还是黄金？

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The unique diversification properties of Bitcoin

比特币的独特多元化特性

In September 2024, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) released a brief 10-page report: "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier." The report examined the unique diversification properties of Bitcoin as a scarce, decentralized, non-sovereign, global asset. Ultimately, BlackRock concluded that Bitcoin did not fit into the traditional framework of "risk on" and "risk off" assets.

2024年9月，贝莱德（NYSE：BLK）发表了一份简短的10页报告：“比特币：独特的多元化器”。该报告将比特币的独特多元化特性视为稀缺，分散的，非选项，全球资产。最终，贝莱德得出的结论是，比特币不符合传统的“风险”和“风险降低”资产的框架。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Yes, Bitcoin is risky in the sense that it is still a relatively new technology with an uncertain regulatory future. And, yes, Bitcoin is risky due to its high volatility. But here's the thing: Bitcoin also has many of the same properties that you would expect to find in a safe haven asset such as gold.

是的，从某种意义上说，比特币仍然是一项相对较新的技术，具有不确定的监管未来。而且，是的，比特币由于其高波动性而有风险。但这就是事情：比特币还具有许多相同的属性，您希望在避风港资产（例如黄金）中找到。

Most importantly, Bitcoin has historically been uncorrelated with any major asset class, making it a potential hedge against declining stock prices. Moreover, as a global asset completely outside the control of sovereign governments and central banks, Bitcoin is not tied to the economic fortunes of any single nation.

最重要的是，从历史上看，比特币与任何主要资产类别都不相关，这使其成为潜在的对冲股价下跌。此外，由于全球资产完全超出了主权政府和中央银行的控制权，因此比特币与任何单一国家的经济命运都没有关系。

Bitcoin as a safe haven?

比特币是避风港？

As BlackRock pointed out, Bitcoin can act as a safe haven during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. To underscore this point, they looked at six recent events that "shocked" the global financial system (such as the outbreak of COVID-19 and the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022), to see how both gold and Bitcoin reacted to these major geopolitical events.

正如贝莱德所指出的那样，在经济和地缘政治不确定性时期，比特币可以作为避风港。为了强调这一点，他们研究了最近的六项事件，这些事件“震惊”了全球金融体系（例如，Covid-19的爆发以及2022年俄罗斯 - 乌克兰战争的开始），以了解黄金和比特币对这些重大地缘政治事件的反应。

Without looking at the numbers, you might guess that gold performed much better than Bitcoin over both the short term (10 days out) and the long term (60 days out). But you'd be wrong. As BlackRock found, Bitcoin typically had a temporary negative reaction before suddenly soaring higher. In five of the six cases examined, Bitcoin outperformed gold over the 60-day period. And in three of the six cases, it outperformed gold over the 10-day period as well.

在不查看数字的情况下，您可能会猜测黄金在短期（10天）和长期（60天）中的表现要比比特币好得多。但是你错了。正如贝莱德发现的那样，比特币通常会产生暂时的负反应，然后突然飙升更高。在检查的六个案例中，有五个在60天期间，比特币的表现优于黄金。在六个案例中的三个中，它在10天期间也表现出色。

Sound familiar? This seems to be the same situation that is happening now with tariffs. Gold initially outperformed Bitcoin when tariffs were first announced, but now Bitcoin is starting to gain momentum. As some investors now see it, Bitcoin might actually be a safe haven, especially if economic instability leads to geopolitical instability.

听起来很熟悉吗？这似乎与关税现在发生的情况相同。当关税首次宣布时，黄金最初优于比特币，但现在比特币开始增强动力。正如一些投资者现在所看到的那样，比特币实际上可能是一个避风港，尤其是在经济不稳定导致地缘政治不稳定的情况下。

The one chart that says it all

一个说明一切的图表

All the talk about gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2025 has made many investors forget about the incredible performance of Bitcoin over the past decade. In seven of the past 10 years, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset class in the world.

关于黄金的所有谈论在2025年都优于比特币，使许多投资者忘记了比特币在过去十年中的令人难以置信的表现。在过去的10年中的七年中，比特币一直是世界上表现最好的资产类别。

Nonetheless, investing is often a game of "what have you done for me lately," so let's compare the performance of Bitcoin and gold over the past year. For the sake of argument, let's use the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) from BlackRock as a proxy for the price of Bitcoin, and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: IAU) from BlackRock as a proxy for the price of gold.

但是，投资通常是“您最近为我做了什么”的游戏，因此让我们比较过去一年比特币和黄金的性能。为了争论，让我们使用贝莱德（Blackrock）的iShares比特币信托（NASDAQ：IBIT）作为比特币价格的代理，而iShares Gold Trust（Nysemkt：iau）则从BlackRock作为代理，以黄金的价格为代理。

IBIT data by YCharts

YCHARTS的IBIT数据

As shown by data from TradingView, Bitcoin has trounced gold since the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust in January 2024. During that time period, the Bitcoin ETF is up 116%, while the gold ETF is up 68%. Even with Bitcoin declining in value this year, and gold soaring in value, the Bitcoin ETF has still outperformed the gold ETF.

如TradingView的数据所示，比特币自2024年1月推出Ishares Bitcoin Trust以来就击败了黄金。在那段时间内，比特币ETF上涨了116％，而黄金ETF则增长了68％。即使今年比特币的价值下降，并且黄金的价值飙升，比特币ETF仍然表现优于黄金ETF。

What happens next with Bitcoin?

比特币接下来会发生什么？

The chart clearly shows an inflection point for Bitcoin around "Liberation Day" on April 2. After trading sideways for several weeks, Bitcoin suddenly made an upward move. Amidst all the talk about a global trade war and the White House's new spat with the Federal Reserve over interest rates, this upward move might become even more pronounced.

该图表清楚地显示了4月2日在“解放日”附近比特币的拐点。在侧面交易几周后，比特币突然向上行动。在有关全球贸易战和白宫与美联储高于利率的所有新闻的讨论中，这种向上的举动可能会变得更加明显。

If recent history is any guide, Bitcoin is the one asset that you want to be holding during periods of economic and geopolitical instability. As it turns out, Bitcoin is a lot less risky than many people imagine. And it can often outshine gold, even when you expect it the least

如果最近的历史是任何指导，那么比特币是您想在经济和地缘政治不稳定期间持有的一项资产。事实证明，比特币的风险要比许多人想象的要少得多。即使您期望它最少