比特幣（Crypto：BTC）在2025年大大勝過黃金

在一年中，黃金上漲了30％，現在正在以歷史新高的高點進行交易。在所有關稅不確定性中，投資者正在尋找安全避風港

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has largely outperformed gold in 2025. For the year, gold is up 30% and is now trading at all-time highs. Amidst all the tariff uncertainty, investors are searching out safe havens to preserve the value of their money, and gold is arguably the safest of all safe havens.

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）在2025年大大勝過黃金。在這一年中，黃金上漲了30％，現在在歷史新高的高點上交易。在所有關稅的不確定性中，投資者正在尋找安全避風港以保持其資金的價值，黃金可以說是所有安全避風港中最安全的。

But don't sleep on Bitcoin. The "digital gold" narrative is making a comeback, and Bitcoin recently regained the $90,000 price level for the first time in several weeks. So which is the better investment right now: Bitcoin or gold?

但是不要睡在比特幣上。 “數字黃金”的敘述正在捲土重來，比特幣最近在幾週內首次重新獲得了90,000美元的價格水平。那麼，現在哪個更好的投資是：比特幣還是黃金？

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The unique diversification properties of Bitcoin

比特幣的獨特多元化特性

In September 2024, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) released a brief 10-page report: "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier." The report examined the unique diversification properties of Bitcoin as a scarce, decentralized, non-sovereign, global asset. Ultimately, BlackRock concluded that Bitcoin did not fit into the traditional framework of "risk on" and "risk off" assets.

2024年9月，貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）發表了一份簡短的10頁報告：“比特幣：獨特的多元化器”。該報告將比特幣的獨特多元化特性視為稀缺，分散的，非主管，全球資產。最終，貝萊德得出的結論是，比特幣不符合傳統的“風險”和“風險降低”資產的框架。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Yes, Bitcoin is risky in the sense that it is still a relatively new technology with an uncertain regulatory future. And, yes, Bitcoin is risky due to its high volatility. But here's the thing: Bitcoin also has many of the same properties that you would expect to find in a safe haven asset such as gold.

是的，從某種意義上說，比特幣仍然是一項相對較新的技術，具有不確定的監管未來。而且，是的，比特幣由於其高波動性而有風險。但這就是事情：比特幣還具有許多相同的屬性，您希望在避風港資產（例如黃金）中找到。

Most importantly, Bitcoin has historically been uncorrelated with any major asset class, making it a potential hedge against declining stock prices. Moreover, as a global asset completely outside the control of sovereign governments and central banks, Bitcoin is not tied to the economic fortunes of any single nation.

最重要的是，從歷史上看，比特幣與任何主要資產類別都不相關，這使其成為潛在的對沖股價下跌。此外，由於全球資產完全超出了主權政府和中央銀行的控制權，因此比特幣與任何單一國家的經濟命運都沒有關係。

Bitcoin as a safe haven?

比特幣是避風港？

As BlackRock pointed out, Bitcoin can act as a safe haven during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. To underscore this point, they looked at six recent events that "shocked" the global financial system (such as the outbreak of COVID-19 and the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022), to see how both gold and Bitcoin reacted to these major geopolitical events.

正如貝萊德所指出的那樣，在經濟和地緣政治不確定性時期，比特幣可以作為避風港。為了強調這一點，他們研究了最近的六項事件，這些事件“震驚”了全球金融體系（例如，Covid-19的爆發以及2022年俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭戰爭的開始），以了解黃金和比特幣對這些重大地緣政治事件的反應。

Without looking at the numbers, you might guess that gold performed much better than Bitcoin over both the short term (10 days out) and the long term (60 days out). But you'd be wrong. As BlackRock found, Bitcoin typically had a temporary negative reaction before suddenly soaring higher. In five of the six cases examined, Bitcoin outperformed gold over the 60-day period. And in three of the six cases, it outperformed gold over the 10-day period as well.

在不查看數字的情況下，您可能會猜測黃金在短期（10天）和長期（60天）中的表現要比比特幣好得多。但是你錯了。正如貝萊德發現的那樣，比特幣通常會產生暫時的負反應，然後突然飆升更高。在檢查的六個案例中，有五個在60天期間，比特幣的表現優於黃金。在六個案例中的三個中，它在10天期間也表現出色。

Sound familiar? This seems to be the same situation that is happening now with tariffs. Gold initially outperformed Bitcoin when tariffs were first announced, but now Bitcoin is starting to gain momentum. As some investors now see it, Bitcoin might actually be a safe haven, especially if economic instability leads to geopolitical instability.

聽起來很熟悉嗎？這似乎與關稅現在發生的情況相同。當關稅首次宣佈時，黃金最初優於比特幣，但現在比特幣開始增強動力。正如一些投資者現在所看到的那樣，比特幣實際上可能是一個避風港，尤其是在經濟不穩定導致地緣政治不穩定的情況下。

The one chart that says it all

一個說明一切的圖表

All the talk about gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2025 has made many investors forget about the incredible performance of Bitcoin over the past decade. In seven of the past 10 years, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset class in the world.

關於黃金在2025年，所有關於黃金優於比特幣的談論都使許多投資者忘記了比特幣在過去十年中的令人難以置信的表現。在過去的10年中的七年中，比特幣一直是世界上表現最好的資產類別。

Nonetheless, investing is often a game of "what have you done for me lately," so let's compare the performance of Bitcoin and gold over the past year. For the sake of argument, let's use the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) from BlackRock as a proxy for the price of Bitcoin, and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: IAU) from BlackRock as a proxy for the price of gold.

但是，投資通常是“您最近為我做了什麼”的遊戲，因此讓我們比較過去一年比特幣和黃金的性能。為了爭論，讓我們使用貝萊德（Blackrock）的iShares比特幣信託（NASDAQ：IBIT）作為比特幣價格的代理，而iShares Gold Trust（Nysemkt：iau）則從BlackRock作為代理，以黃金的價格為代理。

IBIT data by YCharts

YCHARTS的IBIT數據

As shown by data from TradingView, Bitcoin has trounced gold since the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust in January 2024. During that time period, the Bitcoin ETF is up 116%, while the gold ETF is up 68%. Even with Bitcoin declining in value this year, and gold soaring in value, the Bitcoin ETF has still outperformed the gold ETF.

如TradingView的數據所示，比特幣自2024年1月推出Ishares Bitcoin Trust以來就擊敗了黃金。在那段時間內，比特幣ETF上漲了116％，而黃金ETF則增長了68％。即使今年比特幣的價值下降，並且黃金的價值飆升，比特幣ETF仍然表現優於黃金ETF。

What happens next with Bitcoin?

比特幣接下來會發生什麼？

The chart clearly shows an inflection point for Bitcoin around "Liberation Day" on April 2. After trading sideways for several weeks, Bitcoin suddenly made an upward move. Amidst all the talk about a global trade war and the White House's new spat with the Federal Reserve over interest rates, this upward move might become even more pronounced.

該圖表清楚地顯示了4月2日在“解放日”附近比特幣的拐點。在側面交易幾週後，比特幣突然向上行動。在有關全球貿易戰和白宮與美聯儲高於利率的所有新聞的討論中，這種向上的舉動可能會變得更加明顯。

If recent history is any guide, Bitcoin is the one asset that you want to be holding during periods of economic and geopolitical instability. As it turns out, Bitcoin is a lot less risky than many people imagine. And it can often outshine gold, even when you expect it the least

如果最近的歷史是任何指導，那麼比特幣是您想在經濟和地緣政治不穩定期間持有的一項資產。事實證明，比特幣的風險要比許多人想像的要少得多。即使您期望它最少