比特币无情地粉碎了以太的希望

BTC/ETH比率刚刚达到了五年来的最低水平，为0.02193。一年内下降了39％。

The price ratio between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) has hit its lowest level in five years, as the apex cryptocurrency continues to crush the hopes of its rival mercilessly.

比特币（BTC）和Ether（ETH）之间的价格比在五年来达到了其最低水平，因为Apex加密货币继续无情地弥补其竞争对手的希望。

The ETH/BTC ratio has just touched 0.02193, marking a staggering drop of 39% in one year. For the first time since a halving, Ether seems to be buckling under the weight of its older sibling. But what’s behind this historical inversion?

ETH/BTC的比率刚刚达到0.02193，一年中惊人的39％下降了。自一半以来，Ether似乎是第一次在其较老的兄弟姐妹的重量下屈曲。但是这种历史反演的背后是什么？

Between being a refuge amidst macroeconomic turmoil and a repositioning of investors, Bitcoin is consolidating its status as a safe haven. A deep dive into the mechanics of an unequal duel.

在宏观经济动荡中的庇护和投资者的重新定位之间，比特币正在整合其作为避风港的地位。深入研究不平等决斗的机制。

Halving and macro market: the explosive cocktail for Bitcoin and ETH?

减半和宏观市场：比特币和ETH的爆炸性鸡尾酒？

As we discussed in our previous article, traditionally, Ether outperformed Bitcoin in the twelve months following this event. But this time, the scenario is unfolding differently.

正如我们在上一篇文章中所讨论的那样，在此事件发生后的十二个月中，以太的表现优于比特币。但是这次，场景的发展方式不同。

The cause? A tense economic climate. Trade war, persistent inflation, high bond yields… Investors are fleeing risk. The result? We’re seeing record highs for gold, and Bitcoin, seen as “digital gold,” is absorbing the capital.

原因？紧张的经济气氛。贸易战，持续通货膨胀，高债券收益率……投资者逃离了风险。结果？我们看到黄金的记录最高点和被视为“数字黄金”的比特币正在吸收资本。

In this context, Ethereum is paying for its status as a technological bet. While Bitcoin embodies stability with its large market cap and growing institutional presence, ETH remains tied to often-delayed promises of DeFi and smart contracts.

在这种情况下，以太坊正在为其作为技术赌注的地位支付。尽管比特币具有庞大的市值和制度业务的稳定性，但ETH仍与经常延迟的Defi和Smart合同的承诺联系在一起。

And in 2024, patience is wearing a bit thin. Glassnode’s data confirms this: the ETH/BTC ratio has decreased by over 50% since the halving, a situation not seen since 2019. A strong signal: during the storm, assets perceived as risky are sacrificed.

在2024年，耐心有些瘦。 GlassNode的数据证实了这一点：自减半以来，ETH/BTC的比率降低了50％以上，这种情况自2019年以来就一直没有看到。一个强烈的信号：在风暴中，牺牲了被认为是风险的资产。

To put this into perspective, in the third quarter of 2019, the ratio plunged to 0.0164, marking a quarterly decrease of 46%.

从2019年第三季度的角度来看，该比率跌至0.0164，标志着季度下降46％。

Today, history is repeating itself, albeit in a very different context. The crypto market has matured, and institutions are present. Their appetite is clearly leaning towards Bitcoin, whose market cap reassures.

如今，历史正在重演，尽管在非常不同的情况下。加密市场已经成熟，并且存在机构。他们的胃口显然倾向于比特币，后者的市值放心。

ETH losing momentum against altcoins: a structural problem?

对altcoins的ETH失去动力：一个结构性问题？

But Ether’s decline isn’t limited to its face-off with Bitcoin. Even against other altcoins, the second cryptocurrency shows signs of fatigue.

但是以太的下降不仅限于比特币的对峙。即使针对其他山寨币，第二个加密货币也会显示出疲劳的迹象。

Proof of this: the SOL/ETH (Solana/Ether) ratio has increased by 24% since January, despite a difficult year for SOL. Translation? Investors prefer to bet on ecosystems perceived as more innovative, even if volatile.

证明：尽管SOL遇到了困难的一年，但自1月以来，SOL/ETH（SOLANA/ETHER）比率增长了24％。翻译？投资者更喜欢押注被认为更具创新性的生态系统，即使动荡不安。

On the other hand, Ether seems to be caught between its status as a pioneer and aggressive competition.

另一方面，Ether似乎在其作为先驱和积极竞争的地位之间被吸引了。

This poor performance raises questions about its future role. While Bitcoin positions itself as a safe haven with seamless integration into the traditional financial system through products like BTC futures and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, and its price action is showing signs of a potential bullish divergence on lower time frames, which could indicate an upcoming trend reversal,

这种糟糕的表现引发了人们对其未来角色的疑问。尽管比特币将自己定位为通过BTC Futures和Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF等产品与传统金融系统无缝集成到传统金融系统的避风港，其价格动作显示出在较低时间范围内潜在看涨差异的迹象，这可能表明即将到来的趋势逆转（即将到来的趋势逆转），即

Ether is struggling to embody a clear niche. Network updates (like Ethereum 2.0) are slow to convince, and high transaction fees are pushing developers towards alternatives. As a result, its technological leadership is no longer a given.

以太正在努力体现一个清晰的利基市场。网络更新（如以太坊2.0）的说服力很慢，高交易费用正在推动开发人员迈向替代方案。结果，其技术领导不再是给定的。

Finally, this dynamic reveals a shift in mentality among investors. In the face of uncertainty, diversification is no longer enough. They are now prioritizing high liquidity and assets with managed risk.

最后，这种动态揭示了投资者心态的变化。面对不确定性，多元化已经不够了。他们现在正在优先考虑高流动性和具有托管风险的资产。

Bitcoin, with its liquid market and growing institutional adoption (ETFs, regulations), meets these criteria. It also stands as the most traded cryptocurrency on major exchange platforms like Binance, further increasing its liquidity.

比特币凭借其流动市场和不断增长的机构采用（ETF，法规）符合这些标准。它也是Binance等主要交易平台上交易最多的加密货币，进一步增加了其流动性。

On the other hand, Ether, being more speculative despite its strong community and development activity in the DeFi space, becomes a secondary choice.

另一方面，尽管具有强大的社区和在Defi空间中的发展活动，但更具投机性，这成为次要选择。

The gap between Bitcoin and Ether is not just a question of price. It symbolizes a growing divide between security and innovation, between maturity and experimentation.

比特币和以太之间的差距不仅是价格问题。它象征着安全与创新之间的鸿沟，成熟度和实验之间的鸿沟。

In 2024, the market has chosen: against headwinds, Bitcoin imposes itself as the ultimate bulwark.

在2024年，市场选择了：面对逆风，比特币将自己施加在最终的堡垒中。

Ether, for its part, will have to redefine its value to reclaim its place. One certainty? In this game of crypto chess, King Bitcoin firmly retains its crown. As Raoul Pal points out, the wait is almost over for a BTC rally.

以太币将不得不重新定义其价值以恢复其位置。一个确定性？在这款加密棋国际象棋游戏中，国王比特币坚定地保留了其冠冕。正如拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）指出的那样，等待BTC集会几乎结束了。

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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

自2017年以来，Evariste着迷于比特币，不断研究该主题。尽管他最初的兴趣是交易，但他现在积极寻求了解以加密货币为中心的所有进步。作为一名编辑，他努力始终如一地提供反映整个行业状态的高质量工作。