比特幣無情地粉碎了以太的希望

BTC/ETH比率剛剛達到了五年來的最低水平，為0.02193。一年內下降了39％。

The price ratio between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) has hit its lowest level in five years, as the apex cryptocurrency continues to crush the hopes of its rival mercilessly.

比特幣（BTC）和Ether（ETH）之間的價格比在五年來達到了其最低水平，因為Apex加密貨幣繼續無情地彌補其競爭對手的希望。

The ETH/BTC ratio has just touched 0.02193, marking a staggering drop of 39% in one year. For the first time since a halving, Ether seems to be buckling under the weight of its older sibling. But what’s behind this historical inversion?

ETH/BTC的比率剛剛達到0.02193，一年中驚人的39％下降了。自一半以來，Ether似乎是第一次在其較老的兄弟姐妹的重量下屈曲。但是這種歷史反演的背後是什麼？

Between being a refuge amidst macroeconomic turmoil and a repositioning of investors, Bitcoin is consolidating its status as a safe haven. A deep dive into the mechanics of an unequal duel.

在宏觀經濟動盪中的庇護和投資者的重新定位之間，比特幣正在整合其作為避風港的地位。深入研究不平等決鬥的機制。

Halving and macro market: the explosive cocktail for Bitcoin and ETH?

減半和宏觀市場：比特幣和ETH的爆炸性雞尾酒？

As we discussed in our previous article, traditionally, Ether outperformed Bitcoin in the twelve months following this event. But this time, the scenario is unfolding differently.

正如我們在上一篇文章中所討論的那樣，在此事件發生後的十二個月中，以太的表現優於比特幣。但是這次，場景的發展方式不同。

The cause? A tense economic climate. Trade war, persistent inflation, high bond yields… Investors are fleeing risk. The result? We’re seeing record highs for gold, and Bitcoin, seen as “digital gold,” is absorbing the capital.

原因？緊張的經濟氣氛。貿易戰，持續通貨膨脹，高債券收益率……投資者逃離了風險。結果？我們看到黃金的記錄最高點和被視為“數字黃金”的比特幣正在吸收資本。

In this context, Ethereum is paying for its status as a technological bet. While Bitcoin embodies stability with its large market cap and growing institutional presence, ETH remains tied to often-delayed promises of DeFi and smart contracts.

在這種情況下，以太坊正在為其作為技術賭注的地位支付。儘管比特幣具有龐大的市值和製度業務的穩定性，但ETH仍與經常延遲的Defi和Smart合同的承諾聯繫在一起。

And in 2024, patience is wearing a bit thin. Glassnode’s data confirms this: the ETH/BTC ratio has decreased by over 50% since the halving, a situation not seen since 2019. A strong signal: during the storm, assets perceived as risky are sacrificed.

在2024年，耐心有些瘦。 GlassNode的數據證實了這一點：自減半以來，ETH/BTC的比率降低了50％以上，這種情況自2019年以來就一直沒有看到。一個強烈的信號：在風暴中，犧牲了被認為是風險的資產。

To put this into perspective, in the third quarter of 2019, the ratio plunged to 0.0164, marking a quarterly decrease of 46%.

從2019年第三季度的角度來看，該比率跌至0.0164，標誌著季度下降46％。

Today, history is repeating itself, albeit in a very different context. The crypto market has matured, and institutions are present. Their appetite is clearly leaning towards Bitcoin, whose market cap reassures.

如今，歷史正在重演，儘管在非常不同的情況下。加密市場已經成熟，並且存在機構。他們的胃口顯然傾向於比特幣，後者的市值放心。

ETH losing momentum against altcoins: a structural problem?

對altcoins的ETH失去動力：一個結構性問題？

But Ether’s decline isn’t limited to its face-off with Bitcoin. Even against other altcoins, the second cryptocurrency shows signs of fatigue.

但是以太的下降不僅限於比特幣的對峙。即使針對其他山寨幣，第二個加密貨幣也會顯示出疲勞的跡象。

Proof of this: the SOL/ETH (Solana/Ether) ratio has increased by 24% since January, despite a difficult year for SOL. Translation? Investors prefer to bet on ecosystems perceived as more innovative, even if volatile.

證明：儘管SOL遇到了困難的一年，但自1月以來，SOL/ETH（SOLANA/ETHER）比率增長了24％。翻譯？投資者更喜歡押注被認為更具創新性的生態系統，即使動盪不安。

On the other hand, Ether seems to be caught between its status as a pioneer and aggressive competition.

另一方面，Ether似乎在其作為先驅和積極競爭的地位之間被吸引了。

This poor performance raises questions about its future role. While Bitcoin positions itself as a safe haven with seamless integration into the traditional financial system through products like BTC futures and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, and its price action is showing signs of a potential bullish divergence on lower time frames, which could indicate an upcoming trend reversal,

這種糟糕的表現引發了人們對其未來角色的疑問。儘管比特幣將自己定位為通過BTC Futures和Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF等產品與傳統金融系統無縫集成到傳統金融系統的避風港，其價格動作顯示出在較低時間範圍內潛在看漲差異的跡象，這可能表明即將到來的趨勢逆轉（即將到來的趨勢逆轉），即

Ether is struggling to embody a clear niche. Network updates (like Ethereum 2.0) are slow to convince, and high transaction fees are pushing developers towards alternatives. As a result, its technological leadership is no longer a given.

以太正在努力體現一個清晰的利基市場。網絡更新（如以太坊2.0）的說服力很慢，高交易費用正在推動開發人員邁向替代方案。結果，其技術領導不再是給定的。

Finally, this dynamic reveals a shift in mentality among investors. In the face of uncertainty, diversification is no longer enough. They are now prioritizing high liquidity and assets with managed risk.

最後，這種動態揭示了投資者心態的變化。面對不確定性，多元化已經不夠了。他們現在正在優先考慮高流動性和具有託管風險的資產。

Bitcoin, with its liquid market and growing institutional adoption (ETFs, regulations), meets these criteria. It also stands as the most traded cryptocurrency on major exchange platforms like Binance, further increasing its liquidity.

比特幣憑藉其流動市場和不斷增長的機構採用（ETF，法規）符合這些標準。它也是Binance等主要交易平台上交易最多的加密貨幣，進一步增加了其流動性。

On the other hand, Ether, being more speculative despite its strong community and development activity in the DeFi space, becomes a secondary choice.

另一方面，儘管具有強大的社區和在Defi空間中的發展活動，但更具投機性，這成為次要選擇。

The gap between Bitcoin and Ether is not just a question of price. It symbolizes a growing divide between security and innovation, between maturity and experimentation.

比特幣和以太之間的差距不僅是價格問題。它像徵著安全與創新之間的鴻溝，成熟度和實驗之間的鴻溝。

In 2024, the market has chosen: against headwinds, Bitcoin imposes itself as the ultimate bulwark.

在2024年，市場選擇了：面對逆風，比特幣將自己施加在最終的堡壘中。

Ether, for its part, will have to redefine its value to reclaim its place. One certainty? In this game of crypto chess, King Bitcoin firmly retains its crown. As Raoul Pal points out, the wait is almost over for a BTC rally.

以太幣將不得不重新定義其價值以恢復其位置。一個確定性？在這款加密棋國際象棋遊戲中，國王比特幣堅定地保留了其冠冕。正如拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）指出的那樣，等待BTC集會幾乎結束了。

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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

自2017年以來，Evariste著迷於比特幣，不斷研究該主題。儘管他最初的興趣是交易，但他現在積極尋求了解以加密貨幣為中心的所有進步。作為一名編輯，他努力始終如一地提供反映整個行業狀態的高質量工作。