比特币的撞车事故通常会引起190％的篮板，这比以往任何时候都更加看好，因为市场混乱是爆炸性上升空间的主要设置。

Bitwise Cio说，比特币的“浸入式撕裂”模式正在闪烁看涨的190％设置，资产管理公司的首席投资官Matt Hougan Bitwise使用他的3月17日备忘录来解释为什么比特币倾向于在财务压力时会下降，即使它被认为是对冲。

Moments of financial stress often witness bitcoin performing even worse than the S&P 500, especially when the latter experiences a 2% drop in a single day, as noted by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management firm Bitwise, in his March 17 memo.

经济压力的时刻通常证明比特币的表现甚至比标准普尔500指数更糟糕，尤其是当后者在一天中的一天下降2％时，正如Asset Management公司Bitwise的首席投资官Matt Hougan在3月17日的备忘录中所指出的那样。

However, if investors stayed invested or bought more after the pullback, they would have done exceptionally well. On average, in the year following these sharp pullbacks, bitcoin rose a staggering 190%, massively outperforming every other asset.

但是，如果投资者在回调后保持投资或购买更多，那么他们的表现将表现出色。平均而言，在这些急剧下降的一年中，比特币增长了惊人的190％，大大超过了其他所有资产。

“I call this pattern ‘Dip Then Rip,’ and historically it’s one of the most consistent patterns in crypto,” Hougan remarked.

霍根说：“我称这种模式'浸入然后撕裂'，从历史上看，这是加密货币中最一致的模式之一。”

He further explained that this behavior arises from how investors value assets—by discounting future expectations and risk assumptions, principles borrowed from discounted cash flow analysis.

他进一步解释说，这种行为源于投资者如何价值资产（通过折现未来的期望和风险假设），从折现现金流量分析中借用的原则。

While bitcoin lacks cash flows, a similar model can be applied based on a projected value and discount rates. At Bitwise, for instance, they anticipate bitcoin to be valued at $1 million in 2029.

尽管比特币缺乏现金流量，但可以根据预计的价值和折现率应用类似的模型。例如，在Bitwise中，他们预计比特币在2029年的价值为100万美元。

“So, you might ask, what do we think it’s worth today? It depends on the discount factor—that is, the risk you assign it. If you discount back at 50% a year, the net present value is $218,604. If you use a 75% discount rate, the net present value is $122,633,” the executive elaborated.

“因此，您可能会问，我们认为今天的价值是什么？这取决于折现因子 - 即您分配的风险。如果您以每年50％的折扣，净现值为218,604美元。如果您使用75％的折现率，则净现值为$ 122,633，”执行式执行精心摄制。

However, geopolitical disruptions like tariffs can temporarily escalate risk perception, increasing the discount rate and reducing bitcoin’s near-term valuation, even if the long-term forecast improves.

但是，即使长期预测有所改善，诸如关税之类的地缘政治破坏可以暂时升级风险感知，提高折现率并降低比特币的近期估值。

Highlighting the latest drop in prices triggered by tariff fears, Hougan cited a comment from crypto services firm NYDIG.

Hougan强调了关税担忧引起的最新价格下跌，霍根引用了加密服务公司NYDIG的评论。

“What does bitcoin have to do with tariff wars? Nothing, other than it’s a highly liquid, globally available asset that trades 24/7. If anything, bitcoin stands to benefit from the rise in global entropy, the political and economic disorder created by the administration.”

“比特币与关税战争有什么关系？除了它是一个高度流动性的全球可用资产，可以交易24/7。如果有的话，比特币将受益于全球熵的兴起，政府造成的政治和经济障碍。”

From Hougan’s perspective, such market turbulence presents a strategic opportunity.

从霍根（Hougan）的角度来看，这种市场动荡带来了战略机会。

If you’re a long-term investor, these short-term spikes in the discount factor are a chance to get in at a discount. From where I sit, I’ve never been more bullish.

如果您是长期投资者，那么这些短期折扣因素的尖峰就是有机会折扣价。从我坐着的地方，我从来没有看过。