比特幣的撞車事故通常會引起190％的籃板，這比以往任何時候都更加看好，因為市場混亂是爆炸性上升空間的主要設置。

Bitwise Cio說，比特幣的“浸入式撕裂”模式正在閃爍看漲的190％設置，資產管理公司的首席投資官Matt Hougan Bitwise使用他的3月17日備忘錄來解釋為什麼比特幣傾向於在財務壓力時會下降，即使它被認為是對沖。

Moments of financial stress often witness bitcoin performing even worse than the S&P 500, especially when the latter experiences a 2% drop in a single day, as noted by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management firm Bitwise, in his March 17 memo.

經濟壓力的時刻通常證明比特幣的表現甚至比標準普爾500指數更糟糕，尤其是當後者在一天中的一天下降2％時，正如Asset Management公司Bitwise的首席投資官Matt Hougan在3月17日的備忘錄中所指出的那樣。

However, if investors stayed invested or bought more after the pullback, they would have done exceptionally well. On average, in the year following these sharp pullbacks, bitcoin rose a staggering 190%, massively outperforming every other asset.

但是，如果投資者在回調後保持投資或購買更多，那麼他們的表現將表現出色。平均而言，在這些急劇下降的一年中，比特幣增長了驚人的190％，大大超過了其他所有資產。

“I call this pattern ‘Dip Then Rip,’ and historically it’s one of the most consistent patterns in crypto,” Hougan remarked.

霍根說：“我稱這種模式'浸入然後撕裂'，從歷史上看，這是加密貨幣中最一致的模式之一。”

He further explained that this behavior arises from how investors value assets—by discounting future expectations and risk assumptions, principles borrowed from discounted cash flow analysis.

他進一步解釋說，這種行為源於投資者如何價值資產（通過折現未來的預期和風險假設），從折現現金流量分析中藉用的原則。

While bitcoin lacks cash flows, a similar model can be applied based on a projected value and discount rates. At Bitwise, for instance, they anticipate bitcoin to be valued at $1 million in 2029.

儘管比特幣缺乏現金流量，但可以根據預計的價值和折現率應用類似的模型。例如，在Bitwise中，他們預計比特幣在2029年的價值為100萬美元。

“So, you might ask, what do we think it’s worth today? It depends on the discount factor—that is, the risk you assign it. If you discount back at 50% a year, the net present value is $218,604. If you use a 75% discount rate, the net present value is $122,633,” the executive elaborated.

“因此，您可能會問，我們認為今天的價值是什麼？這取決於折現因子 - 即您分配的風險。如果您以每年50％的折扣，淨現值為218,604美元。如果您使用75％的折現率，則淨現值為$ 122,633，”執行式執行精心攝製。

However, geopolitical disruptions like tariffs can temporarily escalate risk perception, increasing the discount rate and reducing bitcoin’s near-term valuation, even if the long-term forecast improves.

但是，即使長期預測有所改善，諸如關稅之類的地緣政治破壞可以暫時升級風險感知，提高折現率並降低比特幣的近期估值。

Highlighting the latest drop in prices triggered by tariff fears, Hougan cited a comment from crypto services firm NYDIG.

Hougan強調了關稅擔憂引起的最新價格下跌，霍根引用了加密服務公司NYDIG的評論。

“What does bitcoin have to do with tariff wars? Nothing, other than it’s a highly liquid, globally available asset that trades 24/7. If anything, bitcoin stands to benefit from the rise in global entropy, the political and economic disorder created by the administration.”

“比特幣與關稅戰爭有什麼關係？除了它是一個高度流動性的全球可用資產，可以交易24/7。如果有的話，比特幣將受益於全球熵的興起，政府造成的政治和經濟障礙。”

From Hougan’s perspective, such market turbulence presents a strategic opportunity.

從霍根（Hougan）的角度來看，這種市場動盪帶來了戰略機會。

If you’re a long-term investor, these short-term spikes in the discount factor are a chance to get in at a discount. From where I sit, I’ve never been more bullish.

如果您是長期投資者，那麼這些短期折扣因素的尖峰就是有機會折扣價。從我坐著的地方，我從來沒有看過。