比特币校正是一个典型的周期回调，并非与众不同

比特币从1月峰起的校正是一个典型的周期回调，并且并非与众不同

Cryptocurrency analysts and executives are saying that Bitcoin’s correction from its January peak is a typical cycle pullback and is not out of the ordinary, with a price top still on the horizon.

加密货币分析师和高管们说，比特币从1月的峰值起的校正是一个典型的周期回调，并不与众不同，价格最高仍在上面。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson said that he doesn’t think the bull run is over and that the peak of the cycle has been pushed back due to macro conditions, and global liquidity isn’t pretty, which isn’t helping crypto.

集体轮班首席执行官本·辛普森（Ben Simpson）在对Cointelegraph的讲话中说，他认为牛的奔跑还没有结束，由于宏观条件，周期的峰值已经倒退了，全球流动性并不漂亮，这并没有帮助加密货币。

“We are only on the third or fourth correction over 25% which we’ve had in Bitcoin this cycle compared to 12 last cycle. So we are getting shallower, lower lows and steeper, higher highs, which to me is charting out a classic bull market cycle, which typically has shallower pullbacks as the bull progresses, ” said Simpson.

“我们仅在本周期中的比特币中进行的第三或第四个校正，而与最后一个周期相比，比特币在比特币中获得的校正。因此，我们变得越来越浅，较低，更陡峭，更高的高点，对我来说，这通常是在绘制经典的牛市市场周期，这通常随着公牛的进步而浅薄，”辛普森说。

Bitcoin is down 24% from its all-time high of $109,000 on January 20 amid uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the future of U.S. interest rates, but Simpson called it “a normal correction.”

比特币在1月20日的历史最高点上下降了24％，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税和美国利率的未来不确定性，但辛普森称其为“正常更正”。

“Things got overheated, and they needed to cool down, and the market needed to find a new foundation, and now we’re waiting for the next new narrative. I think the next narrative will likely be around U.S. rate cuts, easing QT and increasing global liquidity, ” he added.

他补充说：“事情变得过热了，他们需要冷静下来，而市场需要找到一个新的基础，现在我们正在等待下一个新的叙述。我认为下一个叙述可能会在美国的降低，缓解QT并增加全球流动性。”

Bitcoin price down 13.58% over the past month.Source: CoinMarketCap

过去一个月的比特币价格下跌13.58％。

Derive founder Nick Forster shared a similar view, saying that Bitcoin is likely in a normal correction phase, with the cycle peak still to come.

DERIVE创始人Nick Forster分享了类似的观点，称比特币可能处于正常校正阶段，而周期峰仍在。

“Historically, Bitcoin experiences these types of corrections during long-term rallies, and there’s no reason to believe this time is different. It’s common to see Bitcoin return to key Fib levels during these corrections, which aligns with the technical analysis indicators used by many traders and analysts. In this case, Bitcoin has corrected back to the 38.2% Fib level from the December 2022 lows to the January 2024 highs. At the same time, we’ve also seen a steeper correction in price terms but a shallower correction in terms of Fib levels compared to last cycle, which is interesting to note,” said Foster.

“从历史上看，比特币在长期集会期间经历了这些类型的纠正，没有理由相信这段时间是不同的。通常，在这些更正期间，比特币重返关键FIB，这与许多交易者和分析师使用的技术分析指标相吻合。在这种情况下，比特币也校正了38.2％FIB级别，即我们的2％FIB级别，即我们的12月202日。与上一个周期相比，价格方面的校正更为陡峭，但在FIB水平方面进行了较浅的校正，这很有趣，” Foster说。

After Trump’s election in November, Bitcoin surged almost 36% over a month, hitting $100,000 for the first time in December. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $82,824, according to CoinMarketCap.

特朗普在11月的特朗普当选后，比特币在一个月内飙升了近36％，12月的首次达到了100,000美元。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在出版时，比特币的交易价格为82,824美元。

However, Foster added that the six-month fate of Bitcoin seems increasingly tied to traditional markets. Similarly, Independent Reserve CEO Adrian Przelozny said that it isn’t just Bitcoin being impacted by the macroeconomic conditions.

但是，福斯特补充说，比特币的六个月命运似乎与传统市场息息相关。同样，独立预备役首席执行官阿德里安·普尔泽尼（Adrian Przelozny）表示，它不仅受到宏观经济状况的影响。

“This is pervading all asset classes and may lead to a spike in global inflation and a contraction in international growth. Considering the bleak outlook for the global economy and the potential for a liquidity crisis, it isn’t surprising to see Bitcoin struggle to maintain recent highs. Instead, we’re observing a correction that is incrementally burning through support levels and setting the stage for the next decisive move,” Przelozny explained.

“这遍及所有资产类别，可能会导致全球通货膨胀和国际增长的收缩。

Source: Charles Edwards

资料来源：查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）

According to Bitcoin futures chart by Derive.

根据比特币期货图表的说法。

“The current price trend aligns closely with past behavior before a strong price rally. Despite the apparent "tumultuous" period, this aligns closely with historical patterns. As we move through this period of price correction and lower lows, we’re also observing a shift in futures chart behavior, which is interesting. Typically, during periods of strong momentum and price trending up or down, we observe less activity in the futures market. However, recently, we’ve seen an uptick in futures activity, which is usually a sign of traders attempting to gauge the strength of the current price move and decide whether to join in or prepare for a reversal. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming month or two, ” said Derive’s founder.

“当前的价格趋势与强劲的价格集会之前的过去行为紧密相吻合。尽管显然是“动荡的”时期，但这与历史模式紧密相符。随着我们在价格纠正和较低的低点中移动，我们也观察到期货图表行为的转变，这很有趣，通常在强劲的势头和价格上，我们在强劲的趋势和价格上都在观察到未来的活动。活动通常是交易者试图衡量当前价格移动的实力，并决定是否加入还是准备逆转，这将很有趣。

The next narrative will likely be around U.S. rate cuts, easing quantitative tightening, and increasing global liquidity, Collective Shift’s Simpson concluded.

集体转移的辛普森总结说，下一个叙述可能是在美国削减税率，减轻定量收紧并增加全球流动性。

However, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards isn’t so sure if the Bitcoin bull run is over or not.

但是，Capriole Investments创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）不确定比特币公牛的运行是否结束。

The odds are “50:50, in my opinion.”

我认为的赔率是“ 50:50”。

“Yes, from an onchain perspective at present, but that could change quickly if the Fed starts easing in the second half of the year, stops balance sheet reduction, and dollar liquidity grows as a result, which I think has decent odds of happening,” Edwards explained.

爱德华兹解释说：“是的，从目前的一个链角度来看，如果美联储在下半年开始放松，停止资产负债表的减少，而美元流动性随之增长，我认为这可能会发生不错的情况。”

The comments come a day after CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over.”

评论发表在CryptoQuant创始人兼首席执行官Ki Young Ju宣布“比特币牛周期结束”之后的第二天。

“Expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Bouncing at $78k support. But no demand in lower prices.

“预计会有6-12个月的看跌或侧向价格行动。以7.8万美元的支持弹跳。但价格较低。