比特幣校正是一個典型的周期回調，並非與眾不同

比特幣從1月峰起的校正是一個典型的周期回調，並且並非與眾不同

Cryptocurrency analysts and executives are saying that Bitcoin’s correction from its January peak is a typical cycle pullback and is not out of the ordinary, with a price top still on the horizon.

加密貨幣分析師和高管們說，比特幣從1月的峰值起的校正是一個典型的周期回調，並不與眾不同，價格最高仍在上面。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson said that he doesn’t think the bull run is over and that the peak of the cycle has been pushed back due to macro conditions, and global liquidity isn’t pretty, which isn’t helping crypto.

集體輪班首席執行官本·辛普森（Ben Simpson）在對Cointelegraph的講話中說，他認為牛的奔跑還沒有結束，由於宏觀條件，週期的峰值已經倒退了，全球流動性並不漂亮，這並沒有幫助加密貨幣。

“We are only on the third or fourth correction over 25% which we’ve had in Bitcoin this cycle compared to 12 last cycle. So we are getting shallower, lower lows and steeper, higher highs, which to me is charting out a classic bull market cycle, which typically has shallower pullbacks as the bull progresses, ” said Simpson.

“我們在比特幣中的第三或第四個校正僅在比特幣中，而不是最後一個週期，因此我們變得更淺，更低的低點，更陡峭，更高的高點，對我來說，這通常是經典的牛市週期，這通常隨著公牛的進展而具有較淺的回調。”

Bitcoin is down 24% from its all-time high of $109,000 on January 20 amid uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the future of U.S. interest rates, but Simpson called it “a normal correction.”

比特幣在1月20日的歷史最高點上下降了24％，因為美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關稅和美國利率的未來不確定性，但辛普森稱其為“正常更正”。

“Things got overheated, and they needed to cool down, and the market needed to find a new foundation, and now we’re waiting for the next new narrative. I think the next narrative will likely be around U.S. rate cuts, easing QT and increasing global liquidity, ” he added.

他補充說：“事情變得過熱了，他們需要冷靜下來，而市場需要找到一個新的基礎，現在我們正在等待下一個新的敘述。我認為下一個敘述可能會在美國的降低，緩解QT並增加全球流動性。”

Bitcoin price down 13.58% over the past month.Source: CoinMarketCap

過去一個月的比特幣價格下跌13.58％。

Derive founder Nick Forster shared a similar view, saying that Bitcoin is likely in a normal correction phase, with the cycle peak still to come.

DERIVE創始人Nick Forster分享了類似的觀點，稱比特幣可能處於正常校正階段，而周期峰仍在。

“Historically, Bitcoin experiences these types of corrections during long-term rallies, and there’s no reason to believe this time is different. It’s common to see Bitcoin return to key Fib levels during these corrections, which aligns with the technical analysis indicators used by many traders and analysts. In this case, Bitcoin has corrected back to the 38.2% Fib level from the December 2022 lows to the January 2024 highs. At the same time, we’ve also seen a steeper correction in price terms but a shallower correction in terms of Fib levels compared to last cycle, which is interesting to note,” said Foster.

“從歷史上看，比特幣在長期集會期間經歷了這些類型的糾正，沒有理由相信這段時間是不同的。通常，在這些更正期間，比特幣重返關鍵FIB，這與許多交易者和分析師使用的技術分析指標相吻合。在這種情況下，比特幣也校正了38.2％FIB級別，即我們的2％FIB級別，即我們的12月202日。與上一個週期相比，價格方面的校正更為陡峭，但在FIB水平方面進行了較淺的校正，這很有趣，” Foster說。

After Trump’s election in November, Bitcoin surged almost 36% over a month, hitting $100,000 for the first time in December. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $82,824, according to CoinMarketCap.

特朗普在11月的特朗普當選後，比特幣在一個月內飆升了近36％，12月的首次達到了100,000美元。根據CoinMarketCap的數據，在出版時，比特幣的交易價格為82,824美元。

However, Foster added that the six-month fate of Bitcoin seems increasingly tied to traditional markets. Similarly, Independent Reserve CEO Adrian Przelozny said that it isn’t just Bitcoin being impacted by the macroeconomic conditions.

但是，福斯特補充說，比特幣的六個月命運似乎與傳統市場息息相關。同樣，獨立預備役首席執行官阿德里安·普爾澤尼（Adrian Przelozny）表示，它不僅受到宏觀經濟狀況的影響。

“This is pervading all asset classes and may lead to a spike in global inflation and a contraction in international growth. Considering the bleak outlook for the global economy and the potential for a liquidity crisis, it isn’t surprising to see Bitcoin struggle to maintain recent highs. Instead, we’re observing a correction that is incrementally burning through support levels and setting the stage for the next decisive move,” Przelozny explained.

“這正在瀰漫在所有資產類別中，可能導致全球通貨膨脹和國際增長的收縮激增。考慮到全球經濟的黯淡前景以及流動性危機的潛力，看到比特幣難以維持最新的高位。相反，我們正在觀察到通過支持水平和下一個降級的競爭，我們會逐步燃燒，這是一個降級的舞台，並宣傳了下一個迪斯的舞台，” PRZEL，這並不奇怪。

Source: Charles Edwards

資料來源：查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）

According to Bitcoin futures chart by Derive.

根據比特幣期貨圖表的說法。

“The current price trend aligns closely with past behavior before a strong price rally. Despite the apparent "tumultuous" period, this aligns closely with historical patterns. As we move through this period of price correction and lower lows, we’re also observing a shift in futures chart behavior, which is interesting. Typically, during periods of strong momentum and price trending up or down, we observe less activity in the futures market. However, recently, we’ve seen an uptick in futures activity, which is usually a sign of traders attempting to gauge the strength of the current price move and decide whether to join in or prepare for a reversal. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming month or two, ” said Derive’s founder.

“當前的價格趨勢與強勁的價格集會之前的過去行為緊密相吻合。儘管顯然是“動蕩的”時期，但這與歷史模式緊密相符。隨著我們在價格糾正和較低的低點中移動，我們也觀察到期貨圖表行為的轉變，這很有趣，通常在強勁的勢頭和價格上，我們在強勁的趨勢和價格上都在觀察到未來的活動。活動通常是交易者試圖衡量當前價格移動的實力，並決定是否加入還是準備逆轉，這將很有趣。

The next narrative will likely be around U.S. rate cuts, easing quantitative tightening, and increasing global liquidity, Collective Shift’s Simpson concluded.

集體轉移的辛普森總結說，下一個敘述可能是在美國削減稅率，減輕定量收緊並增加全球流動性。

However, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards isn’t so sure if the Bitcoin bull run is over or not.

但是，Capriole Investments創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）不確定比特幣公牛的運行是否結束。

The odds are “50:50, in my opinion.”

我認為的賠率是“ 50:50”。

“Yes, from an onchain perspective at present, but that could change quickly if the Fed starts easing in the second half of the year, stops balance sheet reduction, and dollar liquidity grows as a result, which I think has decent odds of happening,” Edwards explained.

愛德華茲解釋說：“是的，從目前的一個鏈角度來看，如果美聯儲在下半年開始放鬆，停止資產負債表的減少，而美元流動性隨之增長，我認為這可能會發生不錯的情況。”

The comments come a day after CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over.”

評論發表在CryptoQuant創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju宣布“比特幣牛週期結束”之後的第二天。

“Expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action. Bouncing at $78k support. But no demand in lower prices.

“預計有6-12個月的看跌或側向價格，以$ 78K的支持。