比特币 (BTC) 追踪期货以美元计价的未平仓合约 (OI) 创下历史新高

随着 CME 未平仓合约在过去 24 小时内飙升，美国上市现货 ETF 流入量继续打破纪录。

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) hit a new record high in U.S. dollar terms on Tuesday morning as the asset trades above $71,000 for the first time since June, data shows.

数据显示，比特币 (BTC) 期货未平仓合约 (OI) 周二上午以美元计算创下新高，该资产交易自 6 月份以来首次突破 71,000 美元。

BTC futures recorded their biggest one-day jump in OI since June 3. As of Tuesday, OI jumped to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $42.6 billion.

BTC 期货的 OI 创下了自 6 月 3 日以来的最大单日涨幅。截至周二，OI 跃升至超过 20,000 BTC，按当前价格计算价值 25 亿美元，达到近 600,000 BTC，即 426 亿美元。

OI refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not been settled. High open interest indicates that there is significant interest in a particular asset. When open interest increases along with rising prices, it suggests new money is coming into the market, indicating a strengthening trend - such as Tuesday’s.

OI是指尚未结算的未平仓衍生品合约（例如期货或期权）的总数。高未平仓合约表明对特定资产有很大兴趣。当未平仓合约随着价格上涨而增加时，这表明新资金正在进入市场，表明趋势正在加强——就像周二的情况一样。

High open interest can lead to increased volatility, especially as contracts near expiration. Traders might rush to close, roll over, or adjust positions, which can lead to significant price movements. Research firm Kaiko said in an X post that while futures showed strong interest from traders, the funding rates for such positions remain well below March highs which indicate tempered demand.

高未平仓合约可能会导致波动性增加，尤其是在合约即将到期时。交易者可能会急于平仓、展期或调整头寸，这可能导致价格大幅波动。研究公司 Kaiko 在 X 帖子中表示，虽然交易者对期货表现出浓厚的兴趣，但此类头寸的融资利率仍远低于 3 月份的高点，这表明需求减弱。

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets are periodic payments made between traders to ensure that the price of the perpetual contract remains close to the spot price of the underlying asset. Traders such as Singapore-based QCP Capital remain bullish on BTC in the near term, expecting price gains to continue in the weeks ahead.

永续期货市场的资金费率是交易者之间定期支付的费用，以确保永续合约的价格保持接近标的资产的现货价格。总部位于新加坡的 QCP Capital 等交易商近期仍看好 BTC，预计未来几周价格将继续上涨。

“With rising expectations around a potential Trump victory boosting both stocks and Bitcoin, we believe BTC is well-positioned for medium-term gains,” the firm wrote in a Tuesday broadcast on Telegram.

该公司在周二的 Telegram 广播中写道：“随着人们对特朗普可能获胜的预期不断上升，提振了股市和比特币，我们相信 BTC 处于中期上涨的有利位置。”

Here's why BTC OI has zoomed

这就是 BTC OI 规模扩大的原因

Contracts offered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw a 9% surge in 24 hours, taking their open interest to 171,700 BTC, worth over $12.22 billion, which gives CME a 30% dominance in the futures open interest market. They maintain their number one spot in this market.

芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的合约在 24 小时内飙升 9%，持仓量达到 171,700 BTC，价值超过 122.2 亿美元，这使 CME 在期货持仓市场中占据了 30% 的主导地位。他们在这个市场上保持着第一的位置。

In mid-October, bitcoin was trading around $67,000 and the OI on CME hit all-time highs in both notional open interest ($12.4 billion) which is the dollar value of the futures contracts and bitcoin denominated futures contracts (179,930 BTC), per Glassnode data.

据 Glassnode 报道，10 月中旬，比特币交易价格约为 67,000 美元，CME 的未平仓合约 (OI) 名义未平仓合约 (124 亿美元)（即期货合约的美元价值）和比特币计价期货合约 (179,930 BTC) 均创下历史新高。数据。

Second, the funding rate in perpetual markets has also soared in the past 24 hours to 15%, according to Coinglass data, this is one of the highest recorded levels in the past few months, which shows an extreme bias for bullish long trades.

其次，永续市场的资金费率在过去24小时内也飙升至15%，根据Coinglass的数据，这是过去几个月的最高记录水平之一，这表明看涨多头交易的极端偏向。

Finally, the third reason can be attributed to the strong inflows from the U.S. listed spot ETFs, which in recent weeks has seen a slight evolution from the institutional basis trade at the start of the year to now more bullish long directional plays.

最后，第三个原因可归因于美国上市现货ETF的强劲资金流入，近几周来，该ETF从年初的机构基差交易略微演变为现在更加看涨的多头方向性交易。

Since Oct. 16 bitcoin denominated futures contracts peaked on the CME exchange, it has since dropped by over 6%, which has been the opposite for the ETF inflows which have seen a cumulative net inflow of $2.7 billion. The charge has been led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has seen $2.2 billion of net inflows in the same time period while achieving a new record of holding over 400,000 bitcoin in the ETF.

自 10 月 16 日以比特币计价的期货合约在 CME 交易所达到峰值以来，已下跌超过 6%，这与 ETF 流入相反，ETF 累计净流入达 27 亿美元。这一举措由贝莱德旗下的 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 领衔，该信托基金同期净流入达 22 亿美元，同时创下了在 ETF 中持有超过 40 万枚比特币的新纪录。

Earlier in the year it was apparent that the basis trade or the cash and carry arbitrage was taking place which involves taking advantage of the price difference between the bitcoin spot and futures price. The basis trade involves taking a long position on the ETF and then taking a short position on the CME futures bitcoin price. This was one of the reasons bitcoin has been trading in a long sideways range since March, as not all the inflows from the ETFs were directionally long but overall a net neutral strategy.

今年早些时候，很明显存在基差交易或现金套利套利，其中涉及利用比特币现货和期货价格之间的价差。基差交易包括持有 ETF 多头头寸，然后持有 CME 期货比特币价格空头头寸。这是比特币自 3 月份以来一直在长期横盘区间交易的原因之一，因为并非所有 ETF 的流入都是定向做多，但总体而言是净中性策略。

Checkmate, an analyst, also noted the recent divergence between the CME OI and the ETF inflows.

分析师 Checkmate 还指出了最近 CME OI 和 ETF 流入之间的分歧。

“We have a divergence between Bitcoin ETF Inflows and CME Open Interest. ETF Inflows are ticking meaningfully higher. CME Open Interest is up, but not as much. GBTC outflows are also minimal. We're seeing true directional ETF inflows, and less so cash and carry trades,” Checkmate wrote.

“比特币 ETF 流入量与 CME 持仓量之间存在差异。 ETF 流入量显着增加。芝商所未平仓合约有所增加，但增幅不大。 GBTC 的流出也很少。我们看到真正的定向 ETF 流入，而现金和套利交易则较少，”Checkmate 写道。

The recent purchase of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) by the Emory University endowment could support Checkmate's point of view to be a directional long purchase, as one would not expect a University to start executing the basis trade. Emory University would be the first endowment to purchase a bitcoin ETF and while $15 million isn’t a large sum for an institutional investor the narrative and the directional play stand out in a similar fashion to the Wisconsin Pension Fund.

埃默里大学捐赠基金最近购买了灰度比特币迷你信托（BTC），这可能支持 Checkmate 的观点，即定向多头购买，因为人们不会期望大学开始执行基差交易。埃默里大学将是第一家购买比特币 ETF 的捐赠基金，虽然 1500 万美元对于机构投资者来说并不是一个大数目，但其叙事和方向性的表现与威斯康星州养老基金类似。

However, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, takes the other side of this view: he believes due to the increase

然而，Bitwise 研究主管 Andre Dragosch 持相反观点：他认为，由于