比特幣 (BTC) 追蹤期貨以美元計價的未平倉合約 (OI) 創下歷史新高

隨著 CME 未平倉合約在過去 24 小時內飆升，美國上市現貨 ETF 流入量繼續打破紀錄。

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) hit a new record high in U.S. dollar terms on Tuesday morning as the asset trades above $71,000 for the first time since June, data shows.

數據顯示，比特幣 (BTC) 期貨未平倉合約 (OI) 週二上午以美元計算創下新高，該資產交易自 6 月以來首次突破 71,000 美元。

BTC futures recorded their biggest one-day jump in OI since June 3. As of Tuesday, OI jumped to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $42.6 billion.

BTC 期貨的 OI 創下了自 6 月 3 日以來的最大單日漲幅。

OI refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not been settled. High open interest indicates that there is significant interest in a particular asset. When open interest increases along with rising prices, it suggests new money is coming into the market, indicating a strengthening trend - such as Tuesday’s.

OI是指尚未結算的未平倉衍生性合約（例如期貨或選擇權）的總數。高未平倉合約表示對特定資產有很大興趣。當未平倉合約隨著價格上漲而增加時，這表明新資金正在進入市場，表明趨勢正在加強——就像週二的情況一樣。

High open interest can lead to increased volatility, especially as contracts near expiration. Traders might rush to close, roll over, or adjust positions, which can lead to significant price movements. Research firm Kaiko said in an X post that while futures showed strong interest from traders, the funding rates for such positions remain well below March highs which indicate tempered demand.

高未平倉合約可能會導致波動性增加，尤其是在合約即將到期時。交易者可能會急於平倉、展期或調整頭寸，這可能導致價格大幅波動。研究公司 Kaiko 在 X 貼文中表示，雖然交易者對期貨表現出濃厚的興趣，但此類部位的融資利率仍遠低於 3 月的高點，這表明需求減弱。

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets are periodic payments made between traders to ensure that the price of the perpetual contract remains close to the spot price of the underlying asset. Traders such as Singapore-based QCP Capital remain bullish on BTC in the near term, expecting price gains to continue in the weeks ahead.

永續期貨市場的資金費率是交易者之間定期支付的費用，以確保永續合約的價格維持接近標的資產的現貨價格。總部位於新加坡的 QCP Capital 等交易商近期仍看好 BTC，預計未來幾週價格將持續上漲。

“With rising expectations around a potential Trump victory boosting both stocks and Bitcoin, we believe BTC is well-positioned for medium-term gains,” the firm wrote in a Tuesday broadcast on Telegram.

該公司在周二的 Telegram 廣播中寫道：“隨著人們對川普可能獲勝的預期不斷上升，提振了股市和比特幣，我們相信 BTC 處於中期上漲的有利位置。”

Here's why BTC OI has zoomed

這就是 BTC OI 規模擴大的原因

Contracts offered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw a 9% surge in 24 hours, taking their open interest to 171,700 BTC, worth over $12.22 billion, which gives CME a 30% dominance in the futures open interest market. They maintain their number one spot in this market.

芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的合約在 24 小時內飆升 9%，未平倉合約達到 171,700 BTC，價值超過 122.2 億美元，這使 CME 在期貨未平倉合約市場中佔據了 30% 的主導地位。他們在這個市場上保持第一的位置。

In mid-October, bitcoin was trading around $67,000 and the OI on CME hit all-time highs in both notional open interest ($12.4 billion) which is the dollar value of the futures contracts and bitcoin denominated futures contracts (179,930 BTC), per Glassnode data.

根據Glassnode 報導，10 月中旬，比特幣交易價格約為67,000 美元，CME 的未平倉合約(OI) 名義未平倉合約(124 億美元)（即期貨合約的美元價值）和比特幣計價期貨合約(179,930 BTC) 皆創下歷史新高。

Second, the funding rate in perpetual markets has also soared in the past 24 hours to 15%, according to Coinglass data, this is one of the highest recorded levels in the past few months, which shows an extreme bias for bullish long trades.

其次，永續市場的資金費率在過去24小時內也飆升至15%，根據Coinglass的數據，這是過去幾個月的最高記錄水準之一，顯示看漲多頭交易的極端偏向。

Finally, the third reason can be attributed to the strong inflows from the U.S. listed spot ETFs, which in recent weeks has seen a slight evolution from the institutional basis trade at the start of the year to now more bullish long directional plays.

最後，第三個原因可歸因於美國上市現貨ETF的強勁資金流入，近幾週來，該ETF從年初的機構基差交易略微演變為現在更加看漲的多頭方向性交易。

Since Oct. 16 bitcoin denominated futures contracts peaked on the CME exchange, it has since dropped by over 6%, which has been the opposite for the ETF inflows which have seen a cumulative net inflow of $2.7 billion. The charge has been led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has seen $2.2 billion of net inflows in the same time period while achieving a new record of holding over 400,000 bitcoin in the ETF.

自 10 月 16 日以比特幣計價的期貨合約在 CME 交易所達到高峰以來，已下跌超過 6%，這與 ETF 流入相反，ETF 累計淨流入達 27 億美元。這項舉措由貝萊德旗下的 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 領銜，該信託基金同期淨流入達 22 億美元，同時創下了在 ETF 中持有超過 40 萬枚比特幣的新紀錄。

Earlier in the year it was apparent that the basis trade or the cash and carry arbitrage was taking place which involves taking advantage of the price difference between the bitcoin spot and futures price. The basis trade involves taking a long position on the ETF and then taking a short position on the CME futures bitcoin price. This was one of the reasons bitcoin has been trading in a long sideways range since March, as not all the inflows from the ETFs were directionally long but overall a net neutral strategy.

今年早些時候，很明顯存在基差交易或現金套利套利，其中涉及利用比特幣現貨和期貨價格之間的價差。基差交易包括持有 ETF 多頭頭寸，然後持有 CME 期貨比特幣價格空頭部位。這就是為什麼比特幣自 3 月以來一直在長期橫盤區間交易的原因之一，因為並非所有 ETF 的流入都是定向做多，但總體而言是淨中性策略。

Checkmate, an analyst, also noted the recent divergence between the CME OI and the ETF inflows.

分析師 Checkmate 也指出了最近 CME OI 和 ETF 流入之間的分歧。

“We have a divergence between Bitcoin ETF Inflows and CME Open Interest. ETF Inflows are ticking meaningfully higher. CME Open Interest is up, but not as much. GBTC outflows are also minimal. We're seeing true directional ETF inflows, and less so cash and carry trades,” Checkmate wrote.

「比特幣 ETF 流入量與 CME 持倉量之間存在差異。 ETF 流入量顯著增加。芝商所未平倉合約增加，但增幅不大。 GBTC 的流出也很少。我們看到真正的定向 ETF 流入，而現金和套利交易則較少，」Checkmate 寫道。

The recent purchase of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) by the Emory University endowment could support Checkmate's point of view to be a directional long purchase, as one would not expect a University to start executing the basis trade. Emory University would be the first endowment to purchase a bitcoin ETF and while $15 million isn’t a large sum for an institutional investor the narrative and the directional play stand out in a similar fashion to the Wisconsin Pension Fund.

埃默里大學捐贈基金最近購買了灰階比特幣迷你信託（BTC），這可能支持 Checkmate 的觀點，即定向多頭購買，因為人們不會期望大學開始執行基差交易。埃默里大學將是第一個購買比特幣 ETF 的捐贈基金，雖然 1500 萬美元對機構投資者來說並不是一個大數目，但其敘事和方向性的表現與威斯康辛州退休基金類似。

However, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, takes the other side of this view: he believes due to the increase

然而，Bitwise 研究主管 Andre Dragosch 持相反觀點：他認為，由於