比特币（BTC）鲸鱼正在美国 - 中国贸易战中积累

随着美国 - 中国贸易战在2025年加剧。然而，比特币（BTC）鲸鱼通过持有和积累更多BTC发出看涨信号，使全球市场感到焦虑。

Global markets are experiencing a wave of anxiety as the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate in 2025. Following his re-election, Trump has intensified his “America First” agenda, announcing a series of tariffs on various countries, mainly focused on China. These policies have sparked widespread concerns over global trade disruptions and experts predict a potential collapse of the global supply chains.

随着美中国贸易战争在2025年继续升级，全球市场正在引起焦虑。在他连任后，特朗普加剧了他的“美国第一”议程，宣布对各个国家的一系列关税，主要集中于中国。这些政策引发了人们对全球贸易中断的广泛关注，专家预测，全球供应链的潜在崩溃。

Earlier this week, reports emerged of Beijing imposing retaliatory tariffs of over 125% on U.S. goods, targeting key sectors like agriculture and fuel in response to Trump's tariffs. These measures escalate the trade dispute, which began with former President Obama but grew more acute during Trump's tenure.

本周早些时候，据报道，北京对美国商品的报复性关税征收超过125％的报复性关税，以农业和燃料等关键部门的目标，以应对特朗普的关税。这些措施升级了贸易争端，贸易争端始于前总统奥巴马，但在特朗普任职期间变得越来越敏锐。

Moreover, China has added 11 American companies to its “unreliable entity list” and imposed export controls on 16 others, affecting companies involved in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and advanced semiconductors.

此外，中国还向其“不可靠的实体清单”中增加了11家美国公司，并对16个其他公司实施了出口控制，影响了参与人工智能（AI），自动驾驶汽车和高级半导体等技术的公司。

The U.S.-China trade war is no longer a skirmish—it's a full-blown economic showdown, with both nations digging in their heels. For the crypto market, which is sensitive to macroeconomic events, this raises the question: how will Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, navigate this turbulent period?

美国 - 中国贸易战不再是一场小规模冲突，这是一次全面的经济摊牌，两个国家都在挖掘他们的脚跟。对于对宏观经济事件敏感的加密市场，这提出了一个问题：领先的加密货币比特币（BTC）将如何浏览这个动荡的时期？

CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, remains low, minimal selling pressure from these large holders.

CryptoQuant的交换鲸比衡量了这些大型持有人的最低销售压力，衡量了十大流入与总交换流入的比例。

Present situation is a significant departure from what we might expect during a crisis.

目前的情况与我们在危机期间可能期望的情况有很大的不同。

CryptoQuant's analysis of BTC exchange whale activity.

加密对BTC交换鲸鱼活动的分析。

Chart: CryptoQuant

图表：加密量

In past crises, experience shows that whales usually exit the market ahead of major downturns. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash, whales were seen to be distributing their holdings before Bitcoin's price plummeted from $10,000 to below $4,000 in March 2020. Their early exit quickly signaled the beginning of a sharp drop.

在过去的危机中，经验表明，鲸鱼通常会在重大衰退之前退出市场。例如，在2020年Covid-19的大流行崩溃期间，鲸鱼被认为正在分配其持股，然后比特币的价格从2020年3月的10,000美元下降到低于4,000美元以下。他们的早期出口迅速表明了急剧下降的开始。

However, in 2025, despite the trade war fears and broader economic uncertainty, these whales are holding firm and even increasing their positions. This is surprising, given that we might expect them to be the first to sell and move to fiat during a crisis.

但是，在2025年，尽管贸易战担心和更广泛的经济不确定性，这些鲸鱼仍保持坚定，甚至提高其立场。鉴于我们可能希望他们成为第一个在危机期间出售和搬到菲亚特的人，这是令人惊讶的。

The Actions of BTC Whales

BTC鲸的动作

CryptoQuant's Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, has remained low, indicating minimal selling pressure from these large holders.

CryptoQuant的交换鲸比衡量了前10个流入与总交换流入的比例，但仍保持较低，表明这些大型持有人的销售压力最小。

Data of Bitcoin Exchange Ratio – Source: CryptoQuant

比特币交换比率的数据 - 来源：加密

The present situation is a significant departure from what we might expect during a crisis.

目前的情况与我们在危机期间可能期望的显着不同。

CryptoQuant’s analysis of BTC exchange whale activity.

加密对BTC交换鲸鱼活动的分析。

Chart: CryptoQuant

图表：加密量

In past crises, experience shows that whales usually exit the market ahead of major downturns. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash, whales were seen to be distributing their holdings before Bitcoin's price plummeted from $10,000 to below $4,000 in March 2020. Their early exit quickly signaled the beginning of a sharp drop.

在过去的危机中，经验表明，鲸鱼通常会在重大衰退之前退出市场。例如，在2020年Covid-19的大流行崩溃期间，鲸鱼被认为正在分配其持股，然后比特币的价格从2020年3月的10,000美元下降到低于4,000美元以下。他们的早期出口迅速表明了急剧下降的开始。

However, in 2025, despite the trade war fears and broader economic uncertainty, these whales are holding firm and even increasing their positions. This is surprising, given that we might expect them to be the first to sell and move to fiat during a crisis.

但是，在2025年，尽管贸易战担心和更广泛的经济不确定性，这些鲸鱼仍保持坚定，甚至提高其立场。鉴于我们可能希望他们成为第一个在危机期间出售和搬到菲亚特的人，这是令人惊讶的。

What This Means for the Market

这对市场意味着什么

The accumulation by BTC whales is a powerful signal for the crypto market, particularly for retail investors who often look to these large players for cues.

BTC鲸鱼的积累是加密市场的强大信号，特别是对于经常向这些大型参与者寻求提示的散户投资者而言。

When whales hold or buy more Bitcoin, it suggests they believe in the asset’s long-term value and expect prices to rise. This behavior can have a calming effect on the market, reassuring smaller investors who might otherwise panic-sell during periods of uncertainty.

当鲸鱼持有或购买更多比特币时，这表明他们相信资产的长期价值并预计价格会上涨。这种行为可能会对市场产生平静的影响，使较小的投资者放心，这些投资者可能在不确定性时期可能会恐慌。

Moreover, many experts suggest that the trade war fears are a “manufactured crisis” rather than a genuine economic collapse —similar to the narrative around COVID-19. The fact that whales are not exiting, unlike in 2020, indicates that they see this as an opportunity to buy the dip, expecting a recovery once the trade tensions subside.

此外，许多专家认为，贸易战的恐惧是一种“制造危机”，而不是真正的经济崩溃 - 类似于Covid-19的叙述。与2020年不同的鲸鱼没有退出的事实表明，他们认为这是购买蘸酱的机会，一旦贸易紧张局势消退，这一事实预计会恢复。

This analysis aligns with predictions that after the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) and China rapidly raised interest rates and pulled back liquidity to combat inflation, both institutions will likely begin cutting rates again to stimulate their respective economies.

该分析与预测，在美国美联储（美联储）和中国迅速提高了利率并将流动性撤回以对抗通货膨胀之后，这两个机构可能会再次开始降低利率以刺激各自经济体。

This influx of liquidity is expected to benefit assets like gold first, followed by Bitcoin, which is increasingly considered “digital gold.” Several researchers support this view, adding that while Bitcoin may not be a safe haven during crises, it can act as a diversifier in certain circumstances, particularly as a hedge against inflation.

预计这种流动性的涌入将受益于黄金等资产，其次是比特币，越来越被认为是“数字黄金”。一些研究人员支持这种观点，并补充说，尽管比特币在危机期间可能不是避风港，但它可以在某些情况下充当多元化，尤其是作为抵制通货膨胀的对冲。

The fact that whales are accumulating rather than selling aligns with this bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could see significant gains as global economic conditions stabilize.

鲸鱼正在积累而不是出售与这种看涨前景的一致性，这一事实表明，随着全球经济状况的稳定，比特币可以将巨大的收益视为增长。