比特幣（BTC）鯨魚正在美國 - 中國貿易戰中積累

隨著美國 - 中國貿易戰在2025年加劇。然而，比特幣（BTC）鯨魚通過持有和積累更多BTC發出看漲信號，使全球市場感到焦慮。

Global markets are experiencing a wave of anxiety as the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate in 2025. Following his re-election, Trump has intensified his “America First” agenda, announcing a series of tariffs on various countries, mainly focused on China. These policies have sparked widespread concerns over global trade disruptions and experts predict a potential collapse of the global supply chains.

隨著美中國貿易戰爭在2025年繼續升級，全球市場正在引起焦慮。在他連任後，特朗普加劇了他的“美國第一”議程，宣布對各個國家的一系列關稅，主要集中於中國。這些政策引發了人們對全球貿易中斷的廣泛關注，專家預測，全球供應鏈的潛在崩潰。

Earlier this week, reports emerged of Beijing imposing retaliatory tariffs of over 125% on U.S. goods, targeting key sectors like agriculture and fuel in response to Trump's tariffs. These measures escalate the trade dispute, which began with former President Obama but grew more acute during Trump's tenure.

本週早些時候，據報導，北京對美國商品的報復性關稅徵收超過125％的報復性關稅，以農業和燃料等關鍵部門的目標，以應對特朗普的關稅。這些措施升級了貿易爭端，貿易爭端始於前總統奧巴馬，但在特朗普任職期間變得越來越敏銳。

Moreover, China has added 11 American companies to its “unreliable entity list” and imposed export controls on 16 others, affecting companies involved in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and advanced semiconductors.

此外，中國還向其“不可靠的實體清單”中增加了11家美國公司，並對16個其他公司實施了出口控制，影響了參與人工智能（AI），自動駕駛汽車和高級半導體等技術的公司。

The U.S.-China trade war is no longer a skirmish—it's a full-blown economic showdown, with both nations digging in their heels. For the crypto market, which is sensitive to macroeconomic events, this raises the question: how will Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, navigate this turbulent period?

美國 - 中國貿易戰不再是一場小規模衝突，這是一次全面的經濟攤牌，兩個國家都在挖掘他們的腳跟。對於對宏觀經濟事件敏感的加密市場，這提出了一個問題：領先的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）將如何瀏覽這個動蕩的時期？

CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, remains low, minimal selling pressure from these large holders.

CryptoQuant的交換鯨比衡量了這些大型持有人的最低銷售壓力，衡量了十大流入與總交換流入的比例。

Present situation is a significant departure from what we might expect during a crisis.

目前的情況與我們在危機期間可能期望的情況有很大的不同。

CryptoQuant's analysis of BTC exchange whale activity.

加密對BTC交換鯨魚活動的分析。

Chart: CryptoQuant

圖表：加密量

In past crises, experience shows that whales usually exit the market ahead of major downturns. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash, whales were seen to be distributing their holdings before Bitcoin's price plummeted from $10,000 to below $4,000 in March 2020. Their early exit quickly signaled the beginning of a sharp drop.

在過去的危機中，經驗表明，鯨魚通常會在重大衰退之前退出市場。例如，在2020年Covid-19的大流行崩潰期間，鯨魚被認為正在分配其持股，然後比特幣的價格從2020年3月的10,000美元下降到低於4,000美元以下。他們的早期出口迅速表明了急劇下降的開始。

However, in 2025, despite the trade war fears and broader economic uncertainty, these whales are holding firm and even increasing their positions. This is surprising, given that we might expect them to be the first to sell and move to fiat during a crisis.

但是，在2025年，儘管貿易戰擔心和更廣泛的經濟不確定性，這些鯨魚仍保持堅定，甚至提高其立場。鑑於我們可能希望他們成為第一個在危機期間出售和搬到菲亞特的人，這是令人驚訝的。

The Actions of BTC Whales

BTC鯨的動作

CryptoQuant's Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, has remained low, indicating minimal selling pressure from these large holders.

CryptoQuant的交換鯨比衡量了前10個流入與總交換流入的比例，但仍保持較低，表明這些大型持有人的銷售壓力最小。

Data of Bitcoin Exchange Ratio – Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣交換比率的數據 - 來源：加密

The present situation is a significant departure from what we might expect during a crisis.

目前的情況與我們在危機期間可能期望的顯著不同。

CryptoQuant’s analysis of BTC exchange whale activity.

加密對BTC交換鯨魚活動的分析。

Chart: CryptoQuant

圖表：加密量

In past crises, experience shows that whales usually exit the market ahead of major downturns. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash, whales were seen to be distributing their holdings before Bitcoin's price plummeted from $10,000 to below $4,000 in March 2020. Their early exit quickly signaled the beginning of a sharp drop.

在過去的危機中，經驗表明，鯨魚通常會在重大衰退之前退出市場。例如，在2020年Covid-19的大流行崩潰期間，鯨魚被認為正在分配其持股，然後比特幣的價格從2020年3月的10,000美元下降到低於4,000美元以下。他們的早期出口迅速表明了急劇下降的開始。

However, in 2025, despite the trade war fears and broader economic uncertainty, these whales are holding firm and even increasing their positions. This is surprising, given that we might expect them to be the first to sell and move to fiat during a crisis.

但是，在2025年，儘管貿易戰擔心和更廣泛的經濟不確定性，這些鯨魚仍保持堅定，甚至提高其立場。鑑於我們可能希望他們成為第一個在危機期間出售和搬到菲亞特的人，這是令人驚訝的。

What This Means for the Market

這對市場意味著什麼

The accumulation by BTC whales is a powerful signal for the crypto market, particularly for retail investors who often look to these large players for cues.

BTC鯨魚的積累是加密市場的強大信號，特別是對於經常向這些大型參與者尋求提示的散戶投資者而言。

When whales hold or buy more Bitcoin, it suggests they believe in the asset’s long-term value and expect prices to rise. This behavior can have a calming effect on the market, reassuring smaller investors who might otherwise panic-sell during periods of uncertainty.

當鯨魚持有或購買更多比特幣時，這表明他們相信資產的長期價值並預計價格會上漲。這種行為可能會對市場產生平靜的影響，使較小的投資者放心，這些投資者可能在不確定性時期可能會恐慌。

Moreover, many experts suggest that the trade war fears are a “manufactured crisis” rather than a genuine economic collapse —similar to the narrative around COVID-19. The fact that whales are not exiting, unlike in 2020, indicates that they see this as an opportunity to buy the dip, expecting a recovery once the trade tensions subside.

此外，許多專家認為，貿易戰的恐懼是一種“製造危機”，而不是真正的經濟崩潰 - 類似於Covid-19的敘述。與2020年不同的鯨魚沒有退出的事實表明，他們認為這是購買蘸醬的機會，一旦貿易緊張局勢消退，這一事實預計會恢復。

This analysis aligns with predictions that after the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) and China rapidly raised interest rates and pulled back liquidity to combat inflation, both institutions will likely begin cutting rates again to stimulate their respective economies.

該分析與預測，在美國美聯儲（美聯儲）和中國迅速提高了利率並將流動性撤回以對抗通貨膨脹之後，這兩個機構可能會再次開始降低利率以刺激各自經濟體。

This influx of liquidity is expected to benefit assets like gold first, followed by Bitcoin, which is increasingly considered “digital gold.” Several researchers support this view, adding that while Bitcoin may not be a safe haven during crises, it can act as a diversifier in certain circumstances, particularly as a hedge against inflation.

預計這種流動性的湧入將受益於黃金等資產，其次是比特幣，越來越被認為是“數字黃金”。一些研究人員支持這種觀點，並補充說，儘管比特幣在危機期間可能不是避風港，但它可以在某些情況下充當多元化，尤其是作為抵制通貨膨脹的對沖。

The fact that whales are accumulating rather than selling aligns with this bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could see significant gains as global economic conditions stabilize.

鯨魚正在積累而不是出售與這種看漲前景的一致性，這一事實表明，隨著全球經濟狀況的穩定，比特幣可以將巨大的收益視為增長。