比特币（BTC）波动率达到历史性低点，表明市场行为可能发生变化

这可能意味着一个更加成熟和弹性的资产，但有些人想知道这是否也表明对交易者缺乏兴奋。

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has fallen to historic lows, indicating a possible shift in the market. This change could signal a more mature and resilient asset. However, some traders may wonder if it also signifies a lack of excitement.

比特币（BTC）的波动率已经跌至历史低位，表明市场可能发生变化。这种变化可能表明更成熟和弹性的资产。但是，一些交易者可能会怀疑这是否也表示缺乏兴奋。

A recent report from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s three-month realized volatility has dropped below the 50% mark. In previous bull cycles, price swings commonly exceeded 80% or even 100%, making Bitcoin a highly unpredictable investment. But now, the asset appears to be stabilizing, potentially encouraging more institutional investors to enter the space.

GlassNode最近的一份报告表明，比特币的三个月意识到波动率已降至50％以下。在以前的公牛周期中，价格波动通常超过80％甚至100％，这使得比特币成为高度不可预测的投资。但是现在，资产似乎正在稳定，有可能鼓励更多的机构投资者进入该空间。

This shift coincides with a greater market consolidation under the control of large entities. Analysts observe that big investors are absorbing more BTC, reducing the impact of smaller retail traders. As a result, the market no longer experiences extreme price crashes triggered by panic selling.

这种转变与大型实体控制下的更大市场合并相吻合。分析师观察到，大投资者正在吸收更多的BTC，从而减少了较小的零售商人的影响。结果，市场不再经历恐慌销售引起的极端价格崩溃。

Bitcoin Annualized Realized Volatility |Source: Glassnode

比特币年度实现的波动率|来源：玻璃节

Bitcoin Climbs Steadily — No More Crashes

比特币稳步攀登 - 不再崩溃

A notable change is occurring in Bitcoin’s price behavior. Instead of sharp highs followed by deep crashes, the market now follows a “stair-stepping” pattern. Price rallies lead to periods of consolidation rather than sudden collapses, making Bitcoin appear more stable as a store of value.

比特币的价格行为正在发生一个显着的变化。现在，市场遵循“楼梯稳步”模式，而不是尖锐的高点，而是深层崩溃。价格集会导致巩固时期，而不是突然崩溃，使比特币看起来更稳定，因为它是一种价值存储。

Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns | Source: Glassnode

比特币牛市的校正下降|来源：玻璃节

Institutional investors have played a significant role in this transformation. The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has allowed major financial firms to gain exposure in a structured and regulated manner. To date, these ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in net inflows, contributing to Bitcoin’s newfound stability.

机构投资者在这一转变中发挥了重要作用。美国现货比特币ETF的推出使主要金融公司以结构化和受监管的方式获得曝光率。迄今为止，这些ETF吸引了超过400亿美元的净流入，这导致了比特币的新发现稳定性。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s role as a macroeconomic asset is expanding. Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have heavily invested in the cryptocurrency, and in the U.S., discussions are underway about its potential as a strategic reserve asset. Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, noted:

此外，比特币作为宏观经济资产的作用正在扩大。萨尔瓦多（El Salvador）和不丹（Bhutan）等国家对加密货币进行了大量投资，在美国，正在讨论其作为战略储备资产的潜力。 Standard Charter的数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick指出：

“Trump’s January 23 order that the administration evaluate a potential national digital assets stockpile is also important, as this could encourage other central banks to consider Bitcoin investments.”

“特朗普1月23日下令，政府评估潜在的国家数字资产库存也很重要，因为这可能鼓励其他中央银行考虑比特币投资。”

If the U.S. government proceeds with a national Bitcoin reserve, volatility could decline even further. This move could attract risk-averse investors who were previously hesitant due to Bitcoin’s unpredictable price movements.

如果美国政府提供国家比特币储备，那么波动性可能会进一步下降。这一举动可能会吸引规避风险的投资者，因为比特币的价格变动不可预测，这些投资者以前犹豫不决。

Bitcoin’s Stability Strengthens Bullish Projections

比特币的稳定性增强了看涨的预测

According to crypto analytics firm Unfolded, Bitcoin’s annual volatility has reached its lowest level on record. However, despite this decline, BTC’s risk-adjusted returns continue to outshine most major asset classes, reinforcing the case for Bitcoin as a strong long-term investment.

根据加密分析公司的报道，比特币的年度波动率已记录到其最低水平。然而，尽管有这种下降，但BTC的风险调整后收益继续超过大多数主要资产类别，这加强了比特币作为强大的长期投资的案例。

Bitcoin Volatility | Source: unfolded

比特币波动率|资料来源：展开

Kendrick supports this view, stating, “As volatility falls, Bitcoin’s share of an optimized two-asset portfolio with gold increases. Investor access and lower volatility should lead to price appreciation longer-term as portfolios continue to move towards their optimal/logical state.”

肯德里克（Kendrick）支持这种观点，并指出：“随着波动率下降，比特币在优化的两级资产组合中的份额随着黄金的增加而占有一席之地。随着投资组合继续朝着最佳/逻辑状态迈进，投资者的访问和较低的波动性应导致价格升值。”

Kendrick has made a bold projection for Bitcoin, anticipating a surge to $500,000 by the end of 2028. He envisions a parabolic growth phase between 2025 and 2028, with Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $300,000 in 2026, and $400,000 by 2027 before hitting the half-million mark. He attributes this aggressive price outlook to enhanced investor access and declining market volatility.

肯德里克（Kendrick）对比特币进行了大胆的预测，预计到2028年底会增加至500,000美元。他设想了2025年至2028年之间的抛物线增长阶段，到2025年末，比特币达到200,000美元，2026年$ 300,000，到2027年$ 400,000，然后在2027年达到400,000美元。五十万。他将这种积极的价格前景归因于增强的投资者访问和市场波动的下降。

Bitcoin prediction to reach $500,000 | Source: Standard Chartered

比特币预测达到$ 500,000 |资料来源：标准包机

That would be good news for the Bitcoin price and for Bitcoin investors. If you’re wondering what crypto to buy right now, perhaps it is not too late to get a position in Bitcoin? If these Bitcoin price predictions are accurate, it is still early and Bitcoin will still deliver profits to investors with a long term time horizon. HODL.

对于比特币价格和比特币投资者来说，这将是个好消息。如果您想知道现在要购买什么加密货币，那么在比特币中获得位置也许还为时不晚？如果这些比特币的价格预测是准确的，它仍然很早，并且比特币仍将向具有长期视野的投资者提供利润。霍德。