比特幣（BTC）波動率達到歷史性低點，表明市場行為可能發生變化

這可能意味著一個更加成熟和彈性的資產，但有些人想知道這是否也表明對交易者缺乏興奮。

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has fallen to historic lows, indicating a possible shift in the market. This change could signal a more mature and resilient asset. However, some traders may wonder if it also signifies a lack of excitement.

比特幣（BTC）的波動率已經跌至歷史低位，表明市場可能發生變化。這種變化可能表明更成熟和彈性的資產。但是，一些交易者可能會懷疑這是否也表示缺乏興奮。

A recent report from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s three-month realized volatility has dropped below the 50% mark. In previous bull cycles, price swings commonly exceeded 80% or even 100%, making Bitcoin a highly unpredictable investment. But now, the asset appears to be stabilizing, potentially encouraging more institutional investors to enter the space.

GlassNode最近的一份報告表明，比特幣的三個月意識到波動率已降至50％以下。在以前的公牛週期中，價格波動通常超過80％甚至100％，這使得比特幣成為高度不可預測的投資。但是現在，資產似乎正在穩定，有可能鼓勵更多的機構投資者進入該空間。

This shift coincides with a greater market consolidation under the control of large entities. Analysts observe that big investors are absorbing more BTC, reducing the impact of smaller retail traders. As a result, the market no longer experiences extreme price crashes triggered by panic selling.

這種轉變與大型實體控制下的更大市場合併相吻合。分析師觀察到，大投資者正在吸收更多的BTC，從而減少了較小的零售商人的影響。結果，市場不再經歷恐慌銷售引起的極端價格崩潰。

Bitcoin Annualized Realized Volatility |Source: Glassnode

比特幣年度實現的波動率|來源：玻璃節

Bitcoin Climbs Steadily — No More Crashes

比特幣穩步攀登 - 不再崩潰

A notable change is occurring in Bitcoin’s price behavior. Instead of sharp highs followed by deep crashes, the market now follows a “stair-stepping” pattern. Price rallies lead to periods of consolidation rather than sudden collapses, making Bitcoin appear more stable as a store of value.

比特幣的價格行為正在發生一個顯著的變化。現在，市場遵循“樓梯穩步”模式，而不是尖銳的高點，而是深層崩潰。價格集會導致鞏固時期，而不是突然崩潰，使比特幣看起來更穩定，因為它是一種價值存儲。

Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns | Source: Glassnode

比特幣牛市的校正下降|來源：玻璃節

Institutional investors have played a significant role in this transformation. The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has allowed major financial firms to gain exposure in a structured and regulated manner. To date, these ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in net inflows, contributing to Bitcoin’s newfound stability.

機構投資者在這一轉變中發揮了重要作用。美國現貨比特幣ETF的推出使主要金融公司以結構化和受監管的方式獲得曝光率。迄今為止，這些ETF吸引了超過400億美元的淨流入，這導致了比特幣的新發現穩定性。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s role as a macroeconomic asset is expanding. Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have heavily invested in the cryptocurrency, and in the U.S., discussions are underway about its potential as a strategic reserve asset. Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, noted:

此外，比特幣作為宏觀經濟資產的作用正在擴大。薩爾瓦多（El Salvador）和不丹（Bhutan）等國家對加密貨幣進行了大量投資，在美國，正在討論其作為戰略儲備資產的潛力。 Standard Charter的數字資產研究主管Geoff Kendrick指出：

“Trump’s January 23 order that the administration evaluate a potential national digital assets stockpile is also important, as this could encourage other central banks to consider Bitcoin investments.”

“特朗普1月23日下令，政府評估潛在的國家數字資產庫存也很重要，因為這可能鼓勵其他中央銀行考慮比特幣投資。”

If the U.S. government proceeds with a national Bitcoin reserve, volatility could decline even further. This move could attract risk-averse investors who were previously hesitant due to Bitcoin’s unpredictable price movements.

如果美國政府提供國家比特幣儲備，那麼波動性可能會進一步下降。這一舉動可能會吸引規避風險的投資者，因為比特幣的價格變動不可預測，這些投資者以前猶豫不決。

Bitcoin’s Stability Strengthens Bullish Projections

比特幣的穩定性增強了看漲的預測

According to crypto analytics firm Unfolded, Bitcoin’s annual volatility has reached its lowest level on record. However, despite this decline, BTC’s risk-adjusted returns continue to outshine most major asset classes, reinforcing the case for Bitcoin as a strong long-term investment.

根據加密分析公司的報導，比特幣的年度波動率已記錄到其最低水平。然而，儘管有這種下降，但BTC的風險調整後收益繼續超過大多數主要資產類別，這加強了比特幣作為強大的長期投資的案例。

Bitcoin Volatility | Source: unfolded

比特幣波動率|資料來源：展開

Kendrick supports this view, stating, “As volatility falls, Bitcoin’s share of an optimized two-asset portfolio with gold increases. Investor access and lower volatility should lead to price appreciation longer-term as portfolios continue to move towards their optimal/logical state.”

肯德里克（Kendrick）支持這種觀點，並指出：“隨著波動率下降，比特幣在優化的兩級資產組合中的份額隨著黃金的增加而佔有一席之地。隨著投資組合繼續朝著最佳/邏輯狀態邁進，投資者的訪問和較低的波動性應導致價格升值。”

Kendrick has made a bold projection for Bitcoin, anticipating a surge to $500,000 by the end of 2028. He envisions a parabolic growth phase between 2025 and 2028, with Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $300,000 in 2026, and $400,000 by 2027 before hitting the half-million mark. He attributes this aggressive price outlook to enhanced investor access and declining market volatility.

肯德里克（Kendrick）對比特幣進行了大膽的預測，預計到2028年底會增加至500,000美元。他設想了2025年至2028年之間的拋物線增長階段，到2025年末，比特幣達到200,000美元， 2026年$ 300,000，到2027年$ 400,000，然後在2027年達到400,000美元。五十萬。他將這種積極的價格前景歸因於增強的投資者訪問和市場波動的下降。

Bitcoin prediction to reach $500,000 | Source: Standard Chartered

比特幣預測達到$ 500,000 |資料來源：標準包機

That would be good news for the Bitcoin price and for Bitcoin investors. If you’re wondering what crypto to buy right now, perhaps it is not too late to get a position in Bitcoin? If these Bitcoin price predictions are accurate, it is still early and Bitcoin will still deliver profits to investors with a long term time horizon. HODL.

對於比特幣價格和比特幣投資者來說，這將是個好消息。如果您想知道現在要購買什麼加密貨幣，那麼在比特幣中獲得位置也許還為時不晚？如果這些比特幣的價格預測是準確的，它仍然很早，並且比特幣仍將向具有長期視野的投資者提供利潤。霍德。