比特币（BTC）Vix Spike达到60，为篮板奠定了基础？

4月7日，CBOE波动率指数（VIX）发布了一个罕见的尖峰，达到60，这是一个极端市场恐惧和不确定性的晴雨表。

The Chained Consumer Price Index for March came in lower than expected, but Economists warn that the 'sticky' services inflation may still pose a challenge for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target this year.

三月的连锁消费者价格指数远低于预期，但经济学家警告说，“粘性”服务通货膨胀可能对美联储今年达到其2％通货膨胀目标构成挑战。

According to Benzinga, Economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise of 2.3% for the CCPI in March. In February, the index experienced a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and a decrease of 0.1% on an annual basis.

据本辛加（Benzinga）称，道琼斯（Dow Jones）进行的经济学家预计，3月份CCPI的CCPI每月增长了0.3％，同比增长了2.3％。在2月，该指数每月经历的增加0.2％，每年减少0.1％。

The CCPHI is an experimental price index that is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure the changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a typical market basket of consumer goods and services. It is a broad measure of inflation and is often used by economists to track the health of the economy.

CCPHI是一个实验价格指数，劳工统计局使用，以衡量城市消费者为典型的消费品和服务市场篮子支付的价格变化。这是通货膨胀的广泛衡量标准，经济学家经常使用来追踪经济健康。

The CCPHI is also used to adjust the value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for changes in the price level. This adjustment is important for ensuring that the CPI accurately reflects the changes in the purchasing power of consumers over time.

CCPHI还用于调整消费价格指数（CPI）的价值以进行价格水平的变化。这种调整对于确保CPI准确反映消费者随着时间的购买力的变化很重要。

In addition to the CCPHI, the BLS also released several other price indexes today, including the PCE price index, which is the preferred measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve. The BLS will also release the March employment report next Friday, April 7.

除CCPHI外，BLS还发布了当今其他几个价格指数，包括PCE价格指数，这是美联储使用的通货膨胀的首选量度。 BLS还将在4月7日下周五发布三月的就业报告。

Here is a summary of the latest price indexes from the BLS:

这是BLS最新价格指数的摘要：

* The Chained Consumer Price Index for March came in lower than expected, but Economists warned that the 'sticky' services inflation may still pose a challenge for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target this year.

* 3月份的链式消费者价格指数低于预期，但经济学家警告说，“粘性”服务通货膨胀可能对美联储今年达到其2％的通货膨胀目标构成挑战。

According to Dan Tapiero, CEO of 10Tfund, the VIX has hit 60 only five times in the last 35 years, and data suggests a rebound for risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) in 6 to 12 months.

根据10Tfund首席执行官Dan Tapiero的说法，VIX在过去35年中仅五次达到60次，数据表明，在6到12个月内，比特币（BTC）等风险资产有反弹。

The VIX, which is widely considered a “fear gauge,” reflects investor expectations of market turbulence based on S&P 500 options trading. As illustrated in the chart, extreme spikes were seen in 2008 and 2020, typically coinciding with market bottoms, where panic-driven sellers paved the way for generational market entries.

VIX被广泛认为是“恐惧计”，它反映了基于标准普尔500期期权交易的投资者对市场动荡的期望。如图所示，在2008年和2020年看到了极端的尖峰，通常与市场底部相吻合，在那里，恐慌驱动的卖家为世代市场铺平了道路。

In light of that, Tapiero argued that the current spike is no different, with the worst of market fears likely "priced in," setting the stage for a positive future. Tapiero said that “odds favor better future.”

鉴于此，塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）认为，目前的尖峰没有什么不同，最糟糕的市场担忧可能“价格”为“价格”，这为积极的未来奠定了基础。塔皮埃罗说：“赔率有利于美好的未来。”

Likewise, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), supported Tapiero’s claim and said that tech stocks are at their most oversold since the COVID-19 crash, with over 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks posting a 14-day RSI below 30. Such a market signal has occurred only during major crises like the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Likewise, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), supported Tapiero's claim and said that tech stocks are at their most oversold since the COVID-19 crash, with over 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks posting a 14-day RSI below 30. Such a market signal has occurred only during major crises like the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Bittel explained that after the VIX touched 60 last week, it implied peak uncertainty, which breeds fear in investors’ minds. Briefly touching on the US Investors Intelligence Survey, Bittel compared the current bullish sentiment of 23.6% to the lowest reading since December 2008.

Bittel解释说，在上周Vix触及60次之后，这意味着峰值不确定性，这会引起投资者心目中的恐惧。贝特尔（Bittel）简要涉及美国投资者情报调查，将目前的23.6％看涨情绪与2008年12月以来的最低阅读相提并论。

Additionally, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey respondents are currently 62% bearish, reflecting the highest bearish reading since March 2009. Bittel said,

此外，美国个人投资者协会（AAII）的调查受访者目前为62％的看跌，反映了自2009年3月以来最高的看跌。

This widespread fear, alongside a rare VIX spike, sets up for market entries in assets like Bitcoin, as the recovery of market liquidity will inevitably flow back into risk-on assets.

这种广泛的恐惧以及罕见的VIX Spike与比特币这样的资产市场参赛作了准备，因为市场流动性的恢复将不可避免地恢复到风险上的资产中。

Analyst warns Bitcoin VIX trends are bearish

分析师警告比特币VIX趋势是看跌

While macroeconomic experts highlighted the possibility of a bullish outcome for risk assets, markets analyst Tony Severino suggested that the Bitcoin/VIX ratio might also lead to a bear market. In a recent X post, Severino predicted that Bitcoin could have already peaked this cycle, but remained open about a possible change in opinion by the end of April.

尽管宏观经济专家强调了对风险资产的看涨结果的可能性，但市场分析师Tony Severino建议比特币/VIX比率也可能导致熊市。在最近的X帖子中，Severino预测比特币本来可以达到这一周期的顶峰，但是到4月底可能会发生意见变化。

As illustrated in the chart, Severino noted a sell signal at the beginning of January. The analyst used the Elliott Wave theory model to pinpoint the current bearish conditions and said that it is still early to say that Bitcoin will turn bullish based on the VIX correlation.

如图所示，Severino指出了1月初的卖出信号。分析师使用Elliott Wave理论模型来指出当前的看跌条件，并说还早就说比特币会根据VIX相关性转动看涨。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。