比特幣（BTC）Vix Spike達到60，為籃板奠定了基礎？

4月7日，CBOE波動率指數（VIX）發布了一個罕見的尖峰，達到60，這是一個極端市場恐懼和不確定性的晴雨表。

The Chained Consumer Price Index for March came in lower than expected, but Economists warn that the 'sticky' services inflation may still pose a challenge for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target this year.

三月的連鎖消費者價格指數遠低於預期，但經濟學家警告說，“粘性”服務通貨膨脹可能對美聯儲今年達到其2％通貨膨脹目標構成挑戰。

According to Benzinga, Economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise of 2.3% for the CCPI in March. In February, the index experienced a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and a decrease of 0.1% on an annual basis.

據本辛加（Benzinga）稱，道瓊斯（Dow Jones）進行的經濟學家預計，3月份CCPI的CCPI每月增長了0.3％，同比增長了2.3％。在2月，該指數每月經歷的增加0.2％，每年減少0.1％。

The CCPHI is an experimental price index that is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure the changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a typical market basket of consumer goods and services. It is a broad measure of inflation and is often used by economists to track the health of the economy.

CCPHI是一個實驗價格指數，勞工統計局使用，以衡量城市消費者為典型的消費品和服務市場籃子支付的價格變化。這是通貨膨脹的廣泛衡量標準，經濟學家經常使用來追踪經濟健康。

The CCPHI is also used to adjust the value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for changes in the price level. This adjustment is important for ensuring that the CPI accurately reflects the changes in the purchasing power of consumers over time.

CCPHI還用於調整消費價格指數（CPI）的價值以進行價格水平的變化。這種調整對於確保CPI準確反映消費者隨著時間的購買力的變化很重要。

In addition to the CCPHI, the BLS also released several other price indexes today, including the PCE price index, which is the preferred measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve. The BLS will also release the March employment report next Friday, April 7.

除CCPHI外，BLS還發布了當今其他幾個價格指數，包括PCE價格指數，這是美聯儲使用的通貨膨脹的首選量度。 BLS還將在4月7日下週五發布三月的就業報告。

Here is a summary of the latest price indexes from the BLS:

這是BLS最新價格指數的摘要：

* The Chained Consumer Price Index for March came in lower than expected, but Economists warned that the 'sticky' services inflation may still pose a challenge for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target this year.

* 3月份的鍊式消費者價格指數低於預期，但經濟學家警告說，“粘性”服務通貨膨脹可能對美聯儲今年達到其2％的通貨膨脹目標構成挑戰。

According to Dan Tapiero, CEO of 10Tfund, the VIX has hit 60 only five times in the last 35 years, and data suggests a rebound for risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) in 6 to 12 months.

根據10Tfund首席執行官Dan Tapiero的說法，VIX在過去35年中僅五次達到60次，數據表明，在6到12個月內，比特幣（BTC）等風險資產有反彈。

The VIX, which is widely considered a “fear gauge,” reflects investor expectations of market turbulence based on S&P 500 options trading. As illustrated in the chart, extreme spikes were seen in 2008 and 2020, typically coinciding with market bottoms, where panic-driven sellers paved the way for generational market entries.

VIX被廣泛認為是“恐懼計”，它反映了基於標準普爾500期期權交易的投資者對市場動蕩的期望。如圖所示，在2008年和2020年看到了極端的尖峰，通常與市場底部相吻合，在那裡，恐慌驅動的賣家為世代市場鋪平了道路。

In light of that, Tapiero argued that the current spike is no different, with the worst of market fears likely "priced in," setting the stage for a positive future. Tapiero said that “odds favor better future.”

鑑於此，塔皮埃羅（Tapiero）認為，目前的尖峰沒有什麼不同，最糟糕的市場擔憂可能“價格”為“價格”，這為積極的未來奠定了基礎。塔皮埃羅說：“賠率有利於美好的未來。”

Likewise, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), supported Tapiero’s claim and said that tech stocks are at their most oversold since the COVID-19 crash, with over 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks posting a 14-day RSI below 30. Such a market signal has occurred only during major crises like the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Likewise, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), supported Tapiero's claim and said that tech stocks are at their most oversold since the COVID-19 crash, with over 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks posting a 14-day RSI below 30. Such a market signal has occurred only during major crises like the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Bittel explained that after the VIX touched 60 last week, it implied peak uncertainty, which breeds fear in investors’ minds. Briefly touching on the US Investors Intelligence Survey, Bittel compared the current bullish sentiment of 23.6% to the lowest reading since December 2008.

Bittel解釋說，在上週Vix觸及60次之後，這意味著峰值不確定性，這會引起投資者心目中的恐懼。貝特爾（Bittel）簡要涉及美國投資者情報調查，將目前的23.6％看漲情緒與2008年12月以來的最低閱讀相提並論。

Additionally, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey respondents are currently 62% bearish, reflecting the highest bearish reading since March 2009. Bittel said,

此外，美國個人投資者協會（AAII）的調查受訪者目前為62％的看跌，反映了自2009年3月以來最高的看跌。

This widespread fear, alongside a rare VIX spike, sets up for market entries in assets like Bitcoin, as the recovery of market liquidity will inevitably flow back into risk-on assets.

這種廣泛的恐懼以及罕見的VIX Spike與比特幣這樣的資產市場參賽作了準備，因為市場流動性的恢復將不可避免地恢復到風險上的資產中。

Analyst warns Bitcoin VIX trends are bearish

分析師警告比特幣VIX趨勢是看跌

While macroeconomic experts highlighted the possibility of a bullish outcome for risk assets, markets analyst Tony Severino suggested that the Bitcoin/VIX ratio might also lead to a bear market. In a recent X post, Severino predicted that Bitcoin could have already peaked this cycle, but remained open about a possible change in opinion by the end of April.

儘管宏觀經濟專家強調了對風險資產的看漲結果的可能性，但市場分析師Tony Severino建議比特幣/VIX比率也可能導致熊市。在最近的X帖子中，Severino預測比特幣本來可以達到這一周期的頂峰，但是到4月底可能會發生意見變化。

As illustrated in the chart, Severino noted a sell signal at the beginning of January. The analyst used the Elliott Wave theory model to pinpoint the current bearish conditions and said that it is still early to say that Bitcoin will turn bullish based on the VIX correlation.

如圖所示，Severino指出了1月初的賣出信號。分析師使用Elliott Wave理論模型來指出當前的看跌條件，並說還早就說比特幣會根據VIX相關性轉動看漲。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。