比特币（BTC）可能会经历一段校正或侧向运动

比特币可能在来年进行一段时期的矫正或侧向运动。

The crypto market continues to be in flux, and one figure closely watching the on-chain signals is Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

加密货币市场继续处于不断变化的状态，一个人物密切观看链信号的是CryptoQuant的首席执行官Ki Young Ju。

Previously, Young Ju stated that “it’s too early to call it a bear market,” and this perspective was evident in the CryptoQuant chart, which showcases Bitcoin’s price movements over different periods.

以前，Young Ju表示：“现在称其为熊市还为时过早”，在加密图表中，这种观点很明显，该图表显示了比特币在不同时期内的价格变动。

The chart highlights two key color zones representing capital flow trends in the market. When “Apparent Demand” is high, it indicates a strong influx of liquidity and capital, which is usually accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, when “Apparent Demand” decreases, it signifies less liquidity and capital flowing into the market, which tends to put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

该图表突出了两个关键的颜色区域，代表了市场中资本流趋势。当“明显需求”很高时，它表明流动性和资本大量涌入，通常伴随着比特币的价格上涨。相反，当“明显需求”下降时，它表示流动性和资本流入市场的较少，这往往会对比特币的价格下降压力。

Recently, Young Ju announced that the Bitcoin bull cycle had ended, and he predicts that the price will decline or move sideways for the next 6 to 12 months.

最近，Young Ju宣布比特币公牛周期已经结束，他预测价格将在接下来的6到12个月内下降或侧向。

This statement comes after he previously stated that the market had not yet entered a bearish phase. So, what caused him to change his view?

这一说法是在他以前说市场尚未进入看跌阶段之后发表的。那么，是什么原因导致他改变了自己的看法？

On-chain data suggests that the “Apparent Demand” index continues to decrease, reflecting existing market demand. However, institutional and Bitcoin ETF inflows are still present, and BTC’s price is still holding at critical support levels. This indicates that although there is less liquidity, existing liquidity is still supporting Bitcoin’s price to some extent.

链上数据表明，“明显需求”指数继续减少，反映了现有的市场需求。但是，机构和比特币ETF流入仍然存在，BTC的价格仍处于关键支持水平。这表明，尽管流动性较小，但现有的流动性仍在某种程度上支持比特币的价格。

Young Ju cited 4 main reasons for his change in outlook.

Young Ju引用了他改变前景的4个主要原因。

The PnL Index is a technical indicator that measures the profitability or loss of traders who bought Bitcoin at different prices over a specific period. It is often used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends.

PNL指数是一个技术指标，可衡量在特定时期以不同价格购买比特币的交易者的盈利能力或损失。它通常用于评估市场情绪并确定潜在的趋势。

According to the chart, Bitcoin follows a clear cycle of growth and correction, indicated by the following signals:

根据图表，比特币遵循清晰的生长和校正循环，由以下信号表示：

The chart shows that when the PnL Index is above zero, more traders are in profit, which tends to favor a bullish market. As the PnL Index decreases and approaches zero or negative values, it indicates that traders are realizing their gains, selling pressure increases, and the market may be entering a correction phase.

该图表显示，当PNL指数高于零时，更多的交易者正在获利，这倾向于支持看涨的市场。随着PNL指数降低并接近零或负值，这表明交易者正在意识到自己的收益，销售压力增加，市场可能正在进入更正阶段。

After a period of rapid growth, Bitcoin’s price faces selling pressure and stalls, leading to a decrease in the PnL Index and eventually becoming negative. This signals that traders who bought Bitcoin earlier are selling at higher prices, putting pressure on the market to decline.

经过一段时间的快速增长，比特币的价格面对销售压力和摊位，导致PNL指数下降并最终变得负面。这表明较早购买比特币的交易者正在以更高的价格出售，这给市场压力下降。

This analysis aligns with the common understanding of the PnL Index and its implications for market sentiment and potential trends in the cryptocurrency market.

该分析与对PNL指数的共同理解及其对市场情绪和加密货币市场潜在趋势的影响一致。

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely watched by traders and analysts, who use various technical indicators and on-chain data to anticipate future price action.

交易员和分析师密切关注比特币的价格变动，他们使用各种技术指标和链上数据来预测未来的价格行动。

According to Young Ju’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price chart shows that it has dropped below several key technical support levels, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.

根据Young Ju的分析，比特币的价格表显示，它已降至几个关键的技术支持水平以下，这表明延续了下降趋势。

The chart highlights several crucial price points that traders typically pay attention to. As Bitcoin’s price falls below these levels, it could be encountering selling pressure from traders who entered at higher price ranges.

该图表突出了交易者通常关注的几个关键价格点。随着比特币的价格低于这些水平，可能会遇到以较高价格范围进入的交易者的销售压力。

The technical support levels provide insights into the psychological and technical factors influencing Bitcoin’s price movements. As it drops below these levels, it could be encountering stronger selling pressure, leading to a continuation of the downward trend.

技术支持水平为影响比特币价格变动的心理和技术因素提供了见解。随着它降至这些水平以下，它可能会遇到更大的销售压力，从而导致下降趋势的延续。

suggesting that traders are cutting losses and selling at lower prices.

表明交易者正在减少亏损并以较低的价格出售。

On-chain metrics are closely watched by traders and analysts to gain insights into the behavior of market participants and anticipate potential trends in the cryptocurrency market.

交易者和分析师密切关注链界指标，以了解市场参与者的行为，并预测加密货币市场的潜在趋势。

suggesting that traders are cutting losses and selling at lower prices. This analysis aligns with the common understanding of MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL as indicators of market sentiment and potential market cycles.

表明交易者正在减少亏损并以较低的价格出售。该分析与对MVRV，SOPR和NUPL的共同理解是市场情绪和潜在市场周期的指标。

These indicators have appeared in past bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of increased risk or potential market adjustment.

这些指标已经出现在过去的熊市中，这表明比特币可能正在进入风险增加或潜在市场调整的阶段。

suggesting that institutional capital is pulling out of the market. This analysis aligns with the common understanding of liquidity as a crucial factor in supporting or pressuring asset prices.

表明机构资本正在退出市场。该分析与对流动性的共同理解是支持或压力资产价格的关键因素。

suggesting that Whales are selling BTC at lower prices and exiting their positions gradually. This analysis aligns with the common knowledge that large traders, also known as Whales, can have a significant impact on market trends due to their large capital and trading activity.

表明鲸鱼以较低的价格出售BTC并逐渐退出其头寸。该分析与以下常识相吻合，即大型交易者（也称为鲸鱼）可能会因其大型资本和交易活动而对市场趋势产生重大影响。

Overall, these on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin is facing strong downward pressure and could be entering a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and difficult to predict.

总体而言，这些链度指标表明比特币面临着强大的向下压力，可能正在进入熊市。但是，加密货币市场本质上是波动的，难以预测。

Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key market indicators, and stay informed to make sound investment decisions.

投资者应保持谨慎，密切监控关键市场指标，并随时了解明智的投资决策。

DeFi was expected to be a key driver of the crypto bull cycle, providing decentralized financial services such as lending, borrowing, staking, and yield farming. However, as of early 2025, DeFi has been underwhelming and did not meet initial expectations. Here’s a detailed analysis based on recent data and research, as of March 19, 2025.

预计Defi将成为加密牛周期的主要驱动力，并提供分散的金融服务，例如贷款，借贷，积累和产量耕作。但是，截至2025年初，Defi一直不足以满足最初的期望。截至2025年3月19日，这是基于最新数据和研究的详细分析。

DeFi is a decentralized financial ecosystem built on blockchain technology, enabling users to perform financial transactions without intermediaries like banks or traditional financial institutions. During

DEFI是一个基于区块链技术的分散金融生态系统，使用户能够在没有银行或传统金融机构（例如银行或传统金融机构）的情况下进行金融交易。期间