比特幣（BTC）可能會經歷一段校正或側向運動

比特幣可能在來年進行一段時期的矯正或側向運動。

The crypto market continues to be in flux, and one figure closely watching the on-chain signals is Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

加密貨幣市場繼續處於不斷變化的狀態，一個人物密切觀看鏈信號的是CryptoQuant的首席執行官Ki Young Ju。

Previously, Young Ju stated that “it’s too early to call it a bear market,” and this perspective was evident in the CryptoQuant chart, which showcases Bitcoin’s price movements over different periods.

以前，Young Ju表示：“現在稱其為熊市還為時過早”，在加密圖表中，這種觀點很明顯，該圖表顯示了比特幣在不同時期內的價格變動。

The chart highlights two key color zones representing capital flow trends in the market. When “Apparent Demand” is high, it indicates a strong influx of liquidity and capital, which is usually accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, when “Apparent Demand” decreases, it signifies less liquidity and capital flowing into the market, which tends to put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

該圖表突出了兩個關鍵的顏色區域，代表了市場中資本流趨勢。當“明顯需求”很高時，它表明流動性和資本大量湧入，通常伴隨著比特幣的價格上漲。相反，當“明顯需求”下降時，它表示流動性和資本流入市場的較少，這往往會對比特幣的價格下降壓力。

Recently, Young Ju announced that the Bitcoin bull cycle had ended, and he predicts that the price will decline or move sideways for the next 6 to 12 months.

最近，Young Ju宣布比特幣公牛週期已經結束，他預測價格將在接下來的6到12個月內下降或側向。

This statement comes after he previously stated that the market had not yet entered a bearish phase. So, what caused him to change his view?

這一說法是在他以前說市場尚未進入看跌階段之後發表的。那麼，是什麼原因導致他改變了自己的看法？

On-chain data suggests that the “Apparent Demand” index continues to decrease, reflecting existing market demand. However, institutional and Bitcoin ETF inflows are still present, and BTC’s price is still holding at critical support levels. This indicates that although there is less liquidity, existing liquidity is still supporting Bitcoin’s price to some extent.

鏈上數據表明，“明顯需求”指數繼續減少，反映了現有的市場需求。但是，機構和比特幣ETF流入仍然存在，BTC的價格仍處於關鍵支持水平。這表明，儘管流動性較小，但現有的流動性仍在某種程度上支持比特幣的價格。

Young Ju cited 4 main reasons for his change in outlook.

Young Ju引用了他改變前景的4個主要原因。

The PnL Index is a technical indicator that measures the profitability or loss of traders who bought Bitcoin at different prices over a specific period. It is often used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends.

PNL指數是一個技術指標，可衡量在特定時期以不同價格購買比特幣的交易者的盈利能力或損失。它通常用於評估市場情緒並確定潛在的趨勢。

According to the chart, Bitcoin follows a clear cycle of growth and correction, indicated by the following signals:

根據圖表，比特幣遵循清晰的生長和校正循環，由以下信號表示：

The chart shows that when the PnL Index is above zero, more traders are in profit, which tends to favor a bullish market. As the PnL Index decreases and approaches zero or negative values, it indicates that traders are realizing their gains, selling pressure increases, and the market may be entering a correction phase.

該圖表顯示，當PNL指數高於零時，更多的交易者正在獲利，這傾向於支持看漲的市場。隨著PNL指數降低並接近零或負值，這表明交易者正在意識到自己的收益，銷售壓力增加，市場可能正在進入更正階段。

After a period of rapid growth, Bitcoin’s price faces selling pressure and stalls, leading to a decrease in the PnL Index and eventually becoming negative. This signals that traders who bought Bitcoin earlier are selling at higher prices, putting pressure on the market to decline.

經過一段時間的快速增長，比特幣的價格面對銷售壓力和攤位，導致PNL指數下降並最終變得負面。這表明較早購買比特幣的交易者正在以更高的價格出售，這給市場壓力下降。

This analysis aligns with the common understanding of the PnL Index and its implications for market sentiment and potential trends in the cryptocurrency market.

該分析與對PNL指數的共同理解及其對市場情緒和加密貨幣市場潛在趨勢的影響一致。

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely watched by traders and analysts, who use various technical indicators and on-chain data to anticipate future price action.

交易員和分析師密切關注比特幣的價格變動，他們使用各種技術指標和鏈上數據來預測未來的價格行動。

According to Young Ju’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price chart shows that it has dropped below several key technical support levels, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.

根據Young Ju的分析，比特幣的價格表顯示，它已降至幾個關鍵的技術支持水平以下，這表明延續了下降趨勢。

The chart highlights several crucial price points that traders typically pay attention to. As Bitcoin’s price falls below these levels, it could be encountering selling pressure from traders who entered at higher price ranges.

該圖表突出了交易者通常關注的幾個關鍵價格點。隨著比特幣的價格低於這些水平，可能會遇到以較高價格範圍進入的交易者的銷售壓力。

The technical support levels provide insights into the psychological and technical factors influencing Bitcoin’s price movements. As it drops below these levels, it could be encountering stronger selling pressure, leading to a continuation of the downward trend.

技術支持水平為影響比特幣價格變動的心理和技術因素提供了見解。隨著它降至這些水平以下，它可能會遇到更大的銷售壓力，從而導致下降趨勢的延續。

suggesting that traders are cutting losses and selling at lower prices.

表明交易者正在減少虧損並以較低的價格出售。

On-chain metrics are closely watched by traders and analysts to gain insights into the behavior of market participants and anticipate potential trends in the cryptocurrency market.

交易者和分析師密切關注鏈界指標，以了解市場參與者的行為，並預測加密貨幣市場的潛在趨勢。

suggesting that traders are cutting losses and selling at lower prices. This analysis aligns with the common understanding of MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL as indicators of market sentiment and potential market cycles.

表明交易者正在減少虧損並以較低的價格出售。該分析與對MVRV，SOPR和NUPL的共同理解是市場情緒和潛在市場週期的指標。

These indicators have appeared in past bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of increased risk or potential market adjustment.

這些指標已經出現在過去的熊市中，這表明比特幣可能正在進入風險增加或潛在市場調整的階段。

suggesting that institutional capital is pulling out of the market. This analysis aligns with the common understanding of liquidity as a crucial factor in supporting or pressuring asset prices.

表明機構資本正在退出市場。該分析與對流動性的共同理解是支持或壓力資產價格的關鍵因素。

suggesting that Whales are selling BTC at lower prices and exiting their positions gradually. This analysis aligns with the common knowledge that large traders, also known as Whales, can have a significant impact on market trends due to their large capital and trading activity.

表明鯨魚以較低的價格出售BTC並逐漸退出其頭寸。該分析與以下常識相吻合，即大型交易者（也稱為鯨魚）可能會因其大型資本和交易活動而對市場趨勢產生重大影響。

Overall, these on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin is facing strong downward pressure and could be entering a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and difficult to predict.

總體而言，這些鏈度指標表明比特幣面臨著強大的向下壓力，可能正在進入熊市。但是，加密貨幣市場本質上是波動的，難以預測。

Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key market indicators, and stay informed to make sound investment decisions.

投資者應保持謹慎，密切監控關鍵市場指標，並隨時了解明智的投資決策。

DeFi was expected to be a key driver of the crypto bull cycle, providing decentralized financial services such as lending, borrowing, staking, and yield farming. However, as of early 2025, DeFi has been underwhelming and did not meet initial expectations. Here’s a detailed analysis based on recent data and research, as of March 19, 2025.

預計Defi將成為加密牛週期的主要驅動力，並提供分散的金融服務，例如貸款，借貸，積累和產量耕作。但是，截至2025年初，Defi一直不足以滿足最初的期望。截至2025年3月19日，這是基於最新數據和研究的詳細分析。

DeFi is a decentralized financial ecosystem built on blockchain technology, enabling users to perform financial transactions without intermediaries like banks or traditional financial institutions. During

DEFI是一個基於區塊鏈技術的分散金融生態系統，使用戶能夠在沒有銀行或傳統金融機構（例如銀行或傳統金融機構）的情況下進行金融交易。期間