比特币（BTC）将继续走高，至少在货币状况解决下行趋势之前是这样 - PropNotes

许多人将其视为对冲全球金融体系的一种手段——考虑到比特币是在 2008 年金融危机之后诞生的，这种观点是有道理的。

Top Investor Prophesy: Bitcoin Is Really a Replacement for Gold in the Modern Era

顶级投资者预言：比特币确实是现代黄金的替代品

Many discussions have taken place throughout Bitcoin's (BTC) relatively short history in an attempt to determine the best way of valuing the cryptocurrency. Some view it as a hedge against the global financial system, a perspective that aligns with Bitcoin's creation following the 2008 financial crisis. With the expanding USD money supply and rising inflation, Bitcoin is often touted as a safe haven asset.

在比特币（BTC）相对较短的历史中，已经进行了许多讨论，试图确定加密货币估值的最佳方式。一些人将其视为对冲全球金融体系的一种手段，这一观点与 2008 年金融危机后比特币的诞生是一致的。随着美元货币供应量的扩大和通货膨胀的上升，比特币经常被吹捧为避险资产。

However, in the view of top investor PropNotes, BTC is “really, ultimately, a replacement for Gold in the modern era.”

然而，在顶级投资者 PropNotes 看来，BTC“实际上是现代黄金的最终替代品”。

This narrative has become commonplace, with Bitcoin frequently being dubbed “digital gold.” It's an apt description considering Bitcoin boasts some of gold's key characteristics: its supply is limited, it is not issued by any specific government, and it functions as a store of “excess liquidity created by the mainstream financial system.”

这种说法已经变得司空见惯，比特币经常被称为“数字黄金”。考虑到比特币拥有黄金的一些关键特征，这是一个恰当的描述：它的供应有限，不是由任何特定政府发行的，而且它的功能是“主流金融体系创造的过剩流动性”的储存。

Unlike gold, however, PropNotes thinks Bitcoin overcomes some significant drawbacks, such as high storage costs, challenges with transportation, and the environmental harm caused by physical mining, although given BTC's notorious energy consumption, the last point might not actually stand up that well under scrutiny.

然而，与黄金不同的是，PropNotes 认为比特币克服了一些重大缺点，例如高存储成本、运输挑战以及物理采矿造成的环境危害，尽管考虑到 BTC 臭名昭著的能源消耗，最后一点实际上可能并不那么站得住脚。审查。

“As a neutral, public, monetary backbone for the internet age, BTC demand is driven by the inherent value of the network's functionality,” explained the 5-star investor.

“作为互联网时代中立的、公共的货币支柱，比特币的需求是由网络功能的内在价值驱动的，”这位五星级投资者解释道。

Given how Bitcoin's value has increased dramatically throughout its life span, it's clear there has been plenty of demand for it. That said, with 2025 now upon us, there are “monetary headwinds” emerging that could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

鉴于比特币的价值在其整个生命周期中急剧增加，显然对它的需求很大。也就是说，随着 2025 年的到来，“货币逆风”的出现可能会影响比特币的走势。

First, as it unwinds its balance sheet, the Fed continues its policy of tightening liquidity. Additionally, due to worse-than-expected inflation data combined with stronger-than-anticipated employment figures, the Fed's easing cycle now faces uncertainty. If the Fed ends up cutting interest rates less than Bitcoin investors had anticipated in 2024, this could undermine the “excess liquidity” narrative the bull case has been built on, potentially driving its price lower.

首先，在缩减资产负债表的同时，美联储继续实施紧缩流动性的政策。此外，由于通胀数据差于预期，加上就业数据强于预期，美联储的宽松周期目前面临不确定性。如果美联储最终在 2024 年的降息幅度低于比特币投资者的预期，这可能会破坏牛市所依据的“流动性过剩”说法，从而可能导致其价格走低。

However, on the plus side, Bitcoin continues to benefit from a gradual, long-term trend of replacing gold as the preferred global store of value. This secular shift provides a consistent underlying demand for BTC.

然而，从好的方面来看，比特币继续受益于逐步取代黄金成为全球首选价值储存手段的长期趋势。这种长期转变为比特币提供了持续的潜在需求。

Moreover, gold still has a significantly bigger market cap than Bitcoin – about 10 times larger – suggesting there's substantial potential upside for BTC as it narrows the gap, even if this transition is unlikely to happen overnight.

此外，黄金的市值仍然比比特币大得多——大约是比特币的 10 倍——这表明，随着比特币与比特币的差距缩小，它还有巨大的上涨潜力，即使这种转变不太可能在一夜之间发生。

“Additionally,” says the investor, “BTC has historically been a trendy asset, and we're still clearly in the throes of an uptrend.” On balance, then, the outlook for 2025 is somewhat mixed.

“此外，”该投资者表示，“比特币历来都是一种流行资产，而且我们显然仍处于上升趋势的阵痛之中。”总的来说，2025 年的前景有些复杂。

But PropNotes has a way to make use of this scenario. “All in all, we think BTC will keep trending higher, at least until the monetary situation potentially resolves to the downside,” the investor explained.

但 PropNotes 有一种方法可以利用这种情况。 “总而言之，我们认为比特币将继续走高，至少在货币状况可能转为下行之前，”该投资者解释道。

"In the event that does happen, protecting a long position with a trailing stop loss seems like the best way to trade Bitcoin in what otherwise looks to be a tough-to-predict year.”

“如果这种情况确实发生，通过追踪止损来保护多头头寸似乎是在这看起来难以预测的一年中交易比特币的最佳方式。”

Bottom line, PropNotes currently rates Bitcoin a Hold (i.e. Neutral). (To watch PropNotes' track record, click here)

底线是，PropNotes 目前将比特币评级为持有（即中性）。 （要查看 PropNotes 的记录，请单击此处）

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