比特幣（BTC）將繼續走高，至少在貨幣情勢解決下行趨勢之前是這樣 - PropNotes

許多人將其視為對沖全球金融體系的一種手段——考慮到比特幣是在 2008 年金融危機之後誕生的，這種觀點是有道理的。

Top Investor Prophesy: Bitcoin Is Really a Replacement for Gold in the Modern Era

頂級投資者預言：比特幣確實是現代黃金的替代品

Many discussions have taken place throughout Bitcoin's (BTC) relatively short history in an attempt to determine the best way of valuing the cryptocurrency. Some view it as a hedge against the global financial system, a perspective that aligns with Bitcoin's creation following the 2008 financial crisis. With the expanding USD money supply and rising inflation, Bitcoin is often touted as a safe haven asset.

在比特幣（BTC）相對較短的歷史中，已經進行了許多討論，試圖確定加密貨幣估值的最佳方法。有些人將其視為對沖全球金融體系的一種手段，這一觀點與 2008 年金融危機後比特幣的誕生是一致的。隨著美元貨幣供應量的擴大和通貨膨脹的上升，比特幣經常被吹捧為避險資產。

However, in the view of top investor PropNotes, BTC is “really, ultimately, a replacement for Gold in the modern era.”

然而，在頂級投資者 PropNotes 看來，BTC「實際上是現代黃金的最終替代品」。

This narrative has become commonplace, with Bitcoin frequently being dubbed “digital gold.” It's an apt description considering Bitcoin boasts some of gold's key characteristics: its supply is limited, it is not issued by any specific government, and it functions as a store of “excess liquidity created by the mainstream financial system.”

這種說法已經變得司空見慣，比特幣經常被稱為「數位黃金」。考慮到比特幣擁有黃金的一些關鍵特徵，這是一個恰當的描述：它的供應有限，不是由任何特定政府發行的，而且它的功能是「主流金融體系創造的過剩流動性」的儲存。

Unlike gold, however, PropNotes thinks Bitcoin overcomes some significant drawbacks, such as high storage costs, challenges with transportation, and the environmental harm caused by physical mining, although given BTC's notorious energy consumption, the last point might not actually stand up that well under scrutiny.

然而，與黃金不同的是，PropNotes 認為比特幣克服了一些重大缺點，例如高儲存成本、運輸挑戰以及物理採礦造成的環境危害，儘管考慮到BTC 臭名昭著的能源消耗，最後一點實際上可能並不那麼站得住腳。

“As a neutral, public, monetary backbone for the internet age, BTC demand is driven by the inherent value of the network's functionality,” explained the 5-star investor.

「作為網路時代中立的、公共的貨幣支柱，比特幣的需求是由網路功能的內在價值驅動的，」這位五星級投資者解釋道。

Given how Bitcoin's value has increased dramatically throughout its life span, it's clear there has been plenty of demand for it. That said, with 2025 now upon us, there are “monetary headwinds” emerging that could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

鑑於比特幣的價值在其整個生命週期中急劇增加，顯然對它的需求很大。也就是說，隨著 2025 年的到來，「貨幣逆風」的出現可能會影響比特幣的走勢。

First, as it unwinds its balance sheet, the Fed continues its policy of tightening liquidity. Additionally, due to worse-than-expected inflation data combined with stronger-than-anticipated employment figures, the Fed's easing cycle now faces uncertainty. If the Fed ends up cutting interest rates less than Bitcoin investors had anticipated in 2024, this could undermine the “excess liquidity” narrative the bull case has been built on, potentially driving its price lower.

首先，在縮減資產負債表的同時，聯準會繼續實施緊縮流動性的政策。此外，由於通膨數據差於預期，加上就業數據強於預期，聯準會的寬鬆週期目前面臨不確定性。如果聯準會最終在 2024 年的降息幅度低於比特幣投資者的預期，這可能會破壞牛市所依據的「流動性過剩」說法，這可能導致比特幣價格走低。

However, on the plus side, Bitcoin continues to benefit from a gradual, long-term trend of replacing gold as the preferred global store of value. This secular shift provides a consistent underlying demand for BTC.

然而，從好的方面來看，比特幣繼續受益於逐步取代黃金成為全球首選價值儲存手段的長期趨勢。這種長期轉變為比特幣提供了持續的潛在需求。

Moreover, gold still has a significantly bigger market cap than Bitcoin – about 10 times larger – suggesting there's substantial potential upside for BTC as it narrows the gap, even if this transition is unlikely to happen overnight.

此外，黃金的市值仍然比比特幣大得多——大約是比特幣的10 倍——這表明，隨著比特幣與比特幣的差距縮小，它還有巨大的上漲潛力，即使這種轉變不太可能在一夜之間發生。

“Additionally,” says the investor, “BTC has historically been a trendy asset, and we're still clearly in the throes of an uptrend.” On balance, then, the outlook for 2025 is somewhat mixed.

“此外，”該投資者表示，“比特幣歷來都是一種流行資產，而且我們顯然仍處於上升趨勢的陣痛之中。”總的來說，2025 年的前景有些複雜。

But PropNotes has a way to make use of this scenario. “All in all, we think BTC will keep trending higher, at least until the monetary situation potentially resolves to the downside,” the investor explained.

但 PropNotes 有一種方法可以利用這種情況。 「總而言之，我們認為比特幣將繼續走高，至少在貨幣狀況可能轉為下行之前，」該投資者解釋道。

"In the event that does happen, protecting a long position with a trailing stop loss seems like the best way to trade Bitcoin in what otherwise looks to be a tough-to-predict year.”

“如果這種情況確實發生，通過追踪止損來保護多頭頭寸似乎是在這看起來難以預測的一年中交易比特幣的最佳方式。”

Bottom line, PropNotes currently rates Bitcoin a Hold (i.e. Neutral). (To watch PropNotes' track record, click here)

底線是，PropNotes 目前將比特幣評級為持有（即中性）。 （要查看 PropNotes 的記錄，請按一下此處）

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