比特币 (BTC) 交易者在美国大选引发的波动性繁荣中寻求防范价格疲软的保护

比特币（btc）交易者正在寻求保护，以应对美国大选引发的波动性繁荣的预测，以防止价格疲软。

U.S. election odds appear to be impacting bitcoin options traders, with a closer look at the CME market revealing a bias toward puts. This preference is evident in the pricing of options expiring within a week, with puts being pricier relative to calls.

美国大选赔率似乎正在影响比特币期权交易者，仔细观察芝加哥商品交易所市场就会发现，人们对看跌期权有偏见。这种偏好在一周内到期的期权定价中很明显，看跌期权相对看涨期权的价格更高。

The 25-delta risk reversal for contracts expiring Friday (P2XE24) was observed to be -1.3% on Monday, indicating a bias for puts. This measure showcases the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money higher strike calls and lower strike OTM puts, offering an easily readable depiction of the market sentiment.

周五到期合约 (P2XE24) 的 25 Delta 风险逆转周一为 -1.3%，表明看跌期权存在偏差。该指标展示了价外较高行使价看涨期权和较低行使价价外看跌期权之间隐含波动率的差异，提供了对市场情绪的易于阅读的描述。

Call options grant the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a later date at a predetermined price. Put options, on the other hand, provide the right to sell.

看涨期权授予买方在以后以预定价格购买标的资产的权利，但没有义务。另一方面，看跌期权提供出售权。

“It looks like bitcoin options traders are hedging their bets to the downside ahead of the U.S. election this week. Through a .25 delta risk reversal we can see that contracts expiring within a week are slightly negative (puts more expensive than calls) compared to longer-dated maturities (either two weeks or 30 days), where the skew flips to being positive again,” researchers at CF Benchmarks told CoinDesk in an email.

“看起来比特币期权交易员正在对本周美国大选之前的下行赌注进行对冲。通过 0.25 Delta 风险逆转，我们可以看到，与较长期的到期日（两周或 30 天）相比，一周内到期的合约略有负值（看跌期权比看涨期权贵），其中偏差再次变为正值， CF Benchmarks 的研究人员在一封电子邮件中告诉 CoinDesk。

Bitcoin's price has dropped to $68,000 from nearly hitting record highs above $73,500 in one week, amid a decline in the chances of pro-crypto Donald Trump winning the election. The pricing for longer-duration options was positively skewed in favor of calls, indicating a broader constructive outlook, which aligns with analysts’ consensus expectations for a year-end rally to $80,000 and higher.

由于支持加密货币的唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选的可能性下降，比特币的价格已从一周内几乎触及 73,500 美元以上的历史高点跌至 68,000 美元。长期期权的定价正向有利于看涨期权的方向倾斜，表明更广泛的建设性前景，这与分析师对年底反弹至 80,000 美元及更高的共识预期一致。

Recent polls indicate that Democrat Kamala Harris and her rival Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is perceived to be crypto-friendly, are running close in most swing states, including Pennsylvania, and also nationally. Some observers say that the 50-50 odds suggest that the eventual outcome, which is expected to be announced on Friday, could lead to a BTC price swing of $6,000-$8,000.

最近的民意调查显示，民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)和她的对手、被认为对加密货币友好的共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在包括宾夕法尼亚州在内的大多数摇摆州以及全国范围内的支持率很接近。一些观察人士表示，50-50 的赔率表明，预计将于周五公布的最终结果可能会导致 BTC 价格波动 6,000-8,000 美元。

According to data from Amberdata, options trading on the leading exchange Deribit show a broader bullish outlook with a largely neutral bias for this week. The 25-delta risk reversals show barely any difference in the pricing of calls and puts expiring this week. The sentiment turns decisively bullish from the Nov. 15 expiry onward.

根据 Amberdata 的数据，领先交易所 Deribit 的期权交易显示出更广泛的看涨前景，本周基本持中性偏见。 25 Delta 风险逆转显示，本周到期的看涨期权和看跌期权的定价几乎没有任何差异。自 11 月 15 日到期以来，市场情绪明显转为看涨。