比特幣 (BTC) 交易者在美國大選引發的波動性繁榮中尋求防範價格疲軟的保護

比特幣（btc）交易者正在尋求保護，以應對美國大選引發的波動性繁榮的預測，以防止價格疲軟。

U.S. election odds appear to be impacting bitcoin options traders, with a closer look at the CME market revealing a bias toward puts. This preference is evident in the pricing of options expiring within a week, with puts being pricier relative to calls.

美國大選賠率似乎正在影響比特幣選擇權交易者，仔細觀察芝加哥商品交易所市場就會發現，人們對看跌期權有偏見。這種偏好在一周內到期的選擇權定價中很明顯，看跌期權相對看漲期權的價格更高。

The 25-delta risk reversal for contracts expiring Friday (P2XE24) was observed to be -1.3% on Monday, indicating a bias for puts. This measure showcases the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money higher strike calls and lower strike OTM puts, offering an easily readable depiction of the market sentiment.

週五到期合約 (P2XE24) 的 25 Delta 風險逆轉週一為 -1.3%，顯示看跌期權有偏差。此指標顯示了價外較高行使價看漲選擇權和較低行使價外看跌選擇權之間隱含波動率的差異，提供了對市場情緒的易於閱讀的描述。

Call options grant the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a later date at a predetermined price. Put options, on the other hand, provide the right to sell.

買權授予買方在以後以預定價格購買標的資產的權利，但沒有義務。另一方面，看跌期權提供出售權。

“It looks like bitcoin options traders are hedging their bets to the downside ahead of the U.S. election this week. Through a .25 delta risk reversal we can see that contracts expiring within a week are slightly negative (puts more expensive than calls) compared to longer-dated maturities (either two weeks or 30 days), where the skew flips to being positive again,” researchers at CF Benchmarks told CoinDesk in an email.

「看起來比特幣選擇權交易員正在對本周美國大選之前的下行賭注進行對沖。透過0.25 Delta 風險逆轉，我們可以看到，與較長期的到期日（兩週或30 天）相比，一周內到期的合約略有負值（看跌期權比看漲期權貴），其中偏差再次變成正值， CF Benchmarks 的研究人員在一封電子郵件中告訴 CoinDesk。

Bitcoin's price has dropped to $68,000 from nearly hitting record highs above $73,500 in one week, amid a decline in the chances of pro-crypto Donald Trump winning the election. The pricing for longer-duration options was positively skewed in favor of calls, indicating a broader constructive outlook, which aligns with analysts’ consensus expectations for a year-end rally to $80,000 and higher.

由於支持加密貨幣的唐納德·川普贏得大選的可能性下降，比特幣的價格已從一周內幾乎觸及 73,500 美元以上的歷史高點跌至 68,000 美元。長期期權的定價正向有利於看漲期權的方向傾斜，表明更廣泛的建設性前景，這與分析師對年底反彈至 80,000 美元及更高的共識預期一致。

Recent polls indicate that Democrat Kamala Harris and her rival Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is perceived to be crypto-friendly, are running close in most swing states, including Pennsylvania, and also nationally. Some observers say that the 50-50 odds suggest that the eventual outcome, which is expected to be announced on Friday, could lead to a BTC price swing of $6,000-$8,000.

最近的民調顯示，民主黨人卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)和她的對手、被認為對加密貨幣友好的共和黨候選人唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在包括賓夕法尼亞州在內的大多數搖擺州以及全國的支持率很接近。一些觀察人士表示，50-50 的賠率表明，預計將於週五公佈的最終結果可能會導致 BTC 價格波動 6,000-8,000 美元。

According to data from Amberdata, options trading on the leading exchange Deribit show a broader bullish outlook with a largely neutral bias for this week. The 25-delta risk reversals show barely any difference in the pricing of calls and puts expiring this week. The sentiment turns decisively bullish from the Nov. 15 expiry onward.

根據 Amberdata 的數據，領先交易所 Deribit 的選擇權交易顯示出更廣泛的看漲前景，本週基本上持中性偏見。 25 Delta 風險逆轉顯示，本周到期的看漲期權和看跌期權的定價幾乎沒有任何差異。自 11 月 15 日到期以來，市場情緒明顯轉為看漲。