比特币（BTC）现在比历史最高高（ATH）下降了29％以上

现在，比特币在一月份的历史最高水平（ATH）下降了29％以上，并且投资者对即将到来的熊市的猜测正在增长。

Bitcoin (BTC) has now dropped more than 29% from its all-time high (ATH) reached in January, and speculation about a coming bear market is heating up among investors. After weeks of heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, trading in a tight range between $80K and $85K with no clear breakout direction yet.

比特币（BTC）现在已经从1月份达到的历史最高水平（ATH）下降了29％以上，并且对即将到来的熊市市场的猜测正在升温投资者。经过数周的销售压力，比特币进入了一个合并阶段，在$ 8.0万美元至8.5万美元之间的交易范围内，尚无明确的突破方向。

After a period of strong buying activity that propelled Bitcoin to new highs, sellers have gained the upper hand, setting the stage for a potential reversal of the prevailing uptrend. As macroeconomic uncertainty lingers and volatility increases, investors are closely watching for signs of a bottom in the market.

经过一段强劲的购买活动，将比特币推向了新的高点，卖方就占上风，为现行上升趋势的潜在逆转奠定了基础。随着宏观经济的不确定性持续存在和波动性的增加，投资者正在密切关注市场底部的迹象。

In the short term, bulls face a critical test as they must push Bitcoin above key resistance levels to prevent bears from gaining further control and driving prices lower. If BTC fails to break above the $85K-$90K range, it could lead to another round of selling pressure, sending the cryptocurrency toward lower demand zones.

在短期内，公牛将面临重大测试，因为它们必须将比特币提高到关键阻力水平以上，以防止熊获得进一步的控制和推动价格降低。如果BTC未能超过85,000美元的$ 90K范围，则可能导致另一轮销售压力，从而将加密货币带入较低需求区域。

The uncertainty in global markets, combined with macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, and trade war fears, has kept investor sentiment fragile. In such a volatile environment, any unexpected development could have a significant impact on market direction.

全球市场的不确定性，再加上宏观经济的逆风，例如通货膨胀问题，利率上升和贸易战争的恐惧，使投资者的情绪变得脆弱。在如此动荡的环境中，任何意外的发展都可能对市场方向产生重大影响。

However, despite this short-term uncertainty, insights from IntoTheBlock highlight an important historical trend—when analyzing previous Bitcoin halvings, peaks typically occur 12–18 months post-halving, which would point to mid-to-late 2025 as the likely timeframe for this cycle’s top.

然而，尽管这种短期不确定性，intotheblock的见解突出了一个重要的历史趋势 - 当分析先前的比特币过度时，峰值通常发生在稍后的12-18个月后，这将指向2025年中期至上的2025年，这可能是该周期顶部的可能时间。

The big question remains: Is this cycle different? With institutional adoption rising, government policies shifting, and market volatility increasing, analysts are watching closely to determine whether Bitcoin will follow its historical pattern or if external factors will reshape this cycle. The next few months will be crucial in deciding Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

最大的问题仍然存在：这个周期有所不同吗？随着机构采用的增加，政府政策的转移以及市场波动的增加，分析师正在密切关注，以确定比特币是否遵循其历史模式，或者外部因素是否会重塑本周期。接下来的几个月对于决定比特币的长期轨迹至关重要。

Historical Halving Trends Suggest More Growth Ahead

历史减半趋势表明未来的增长

Bitcoin has been heavily pressured by sellers, mirroring the broader struggles faced by both the crypto market and the US stock market. Macroeconomic uncertainty, trade war fears, and tightening financial conditions have all contributed to weakened investor sentiment, leading to widespread volatility across risk assets.

比特币受到卖家的巨大压力，反映了加密货币市场和美国股票市场所面临的更广泛的斗争。宏观经济的不确定性，贸易战争的恐惧和收紧财务状况都导致投资者的情绪减弱，从而导致风险资产的广泛波动。

Since the start of the month, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20%, and the bearish trend appears to be holding. However, despite the short-term weakness, market fundamentals remain strong. Institutional adoption continues to grow, and US President Donald Trump’s plans to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could serve as a major catalyst for future price movements.

自本月初以来，比特币下降了近20％，看跌趋势似乎正在持有。但是，尽管短期弱点，市场基本面仍然很强劲。机构的采用不断增长，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）建立战略比特币储备的计划可以作为未来价格变动的主要催化剂。

Insights from IntoTheBlock on X highlight that when looking at historical Bitcoin halving cycles, peaks tend to occur 12–18 months after a halving event. This pattern suggests that the current cycle’s top could emerge around mid-to-late 2025.

从X上的intotheblock发出的见解突出显示，在查看历史比特币减半周期时，峰值往往发生在减半事件后12-18个月。这种模式表明，当前周期的顶部可能会在2025年中部至较高的2025年左右出现。

While institutional flows and regulatory developments could introduce new variables into this cycle, IntoTheBlock analysts believe there is still time left before Bitcoin reaches its true peak. If historical trends hold, this correction may be a necessary phase before another major rally unfolds.

尽管机构流量和监管发展可能会将新变量引入该周期，但intotheblock分析师认为，比特币达到其真实峰值还有时间。如果历史趋势成立，则此更正可能是另一个主要集会展开之前的必要阶段。

Bitcoin Struggles Below $85K As Bulls Face Critical Resistance

比特币挣扎以下$ 85K，因为公牛面临着关键的抵抗力

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $84,200, struggling to regain momentum after days of selling pressure that have kept the price below the $85K mark. Bulls must reclaim the $90K-$91K level to confirm a potential recovery, as this range coincides with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA)—key technical levels that often signal trend shifts.

比特币（BTC）目前的交易价格为84,200美元，经过几天的销售压力，努力恢复了势头，这使价格保持在8.5万美元以下。公牛必须收回$ 90K- $ 91K的水平才能确认潜在的回收率，因为该范围与4小时的200移动平均线（MA）和指数移动平均线（EMA）（EMA） - 钥匙技术水平相吻合，这通常表示趋势变化。

If BTC can break through this resistance, it could trigger a strong upward move, potentially setting the stage for another push toward all-time highs. However, failure to hold above $85K and reclaim the moving averages could lead to further downside pressure, sending Bitcoin below the $80K mark.

如果BTC可以突破这种阻力，它可能会引发强劲的向上移动，有可能为朝着历史高高推动的舞台奠定基础。但是，如果不持有超过$ 85K并收回移动平均值可能会导致进一步的下行压力，从而使比特币低于$ 80K。

With market sentiment still fragile, bulls face a critical test in the coming days. If BTC remains trapped below resistance, selling pressure could intensify, forcing the market into lower demand zones. On the other hand, a decisive breakout above $90K could restore bullish momentum, signaling a potential end to the recent correction phase. The next trading sessions will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

由于市场情绪仍然脆弱，公牛队在未来几天面临重大考验。如果BTC仍然被困在电阻以下，那么销售压力可能会加剧，迫使市场进入需求较低的区域。另一方面，超过$ 90k的决定性突破可以恢复看涨的动力，这表明了最近的校正阶段的潜在终点。下一次交易课程对于确定比特币的短期轨迹至关重要。