比特幣（BTC）現在比歷史最高高（ATH）下降了29％以上

現在，比特幣在一月份的歷史最高水平（ATH）下降了29％以上，並且投資者對即將到來的熊市的猜測正在增長。

Bitcoin (BTC) has now dropped more than 29% from its all-time high (ATH) reached in January, and speculation about a coming bear market is heating up among investors. After weeks of heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, trading in a tight range between $80K and $85K with no clear breakout direction yet.

比特幣（BTC）現在已經從1月份達到的歷史最高水平（ATH）下降了29％以上，並且對即將到來的熊市市場的猜測正在升溫投資者。經過數週的銷售壓力，比特幣進入了一個合併階段，在$ 8.0萬美元至8.5萬美元之間的交易範圍內，尚無明確的突破方向。

After a period of strong buying activity that propelled Bitcoin to new highs, sellers have gained the upper hand, setting the stage for a potential reversal of the prevailing uptrend. As macroeconomic uncertainty lingers and volatility increases, investors are closely watching for signs of a bottom in the market.

經過一段強勁的購買活動，將比特幣推向了新的高點，賣方就佔上風，為現行上升趨勢的潛在逆轉奠定了基礎。隨著宏觀經濟的不確定性持續存在和波動性的增加，投資者正在密切關注市場底部的跡象。

In the short term, bulls face a critical test as they must push Bitcoin above key resistance levels to prevent bears from gaining further control and driving prices lower. If BTC fails to break above the $85K-$90K range, it could lead to another round of selling pressure, sending the cryptocurrency toward lower demand zones.

在短期內，公牛將面臨重大測試，因為它們必須將比特幣提高到關鍵阻力水平以上，以防止熊獲得進一步的控制和推動價格降低。如果BTC未能超過85,000美元的$ 90K範圍，則可能導致另一輪銷售壓力，從而將加密貨幣帶入較低需求區域。

The uncertainty in global markets, combined with macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, and trade war fears, has kept investor sentiment fragile. In such a volatile environment, any unexpected development could have a significant impact on market direction.

全球市場的不確定性，再加上宏觀經濟的逆風，例如通貨膨脹問題，利率上升和貿易戰爭的恐懼，使投資者的情緒變得脆弱。在如此動蕩的環境中，任何意外的發展都可能對市場方向產生重大影響。

However, despite this short-term uncertainty, insights from IntoTheBlock highlight an important historical trend—when analyzing previous Bitcoin halvings, peaks typically occur 12–18 months post-halving, which would point to mid-to-late 2025 as the likely timeframe for this cycle’s top.

然而，儘管這種短期不確定性，intotheblock的見解突出了一個重要的歷史趨勢 - 當分析先前的比特幣過度時，峰值通常發生在稍後的12-18個月後，這將指向2025年中期至上的2025年，這可能是該週期頂部的可能時間。

The big question remains: Is this cycle different? With institutional adoption rising, government policies shifting, and market volatility increasing, analysts are watching closely to determine whether Bitcoin will follow its historical pattern or if external factors will reshape this cycle. The next few months will be crucial in deciding Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

最大的問題仍然存在：這個週期有所不同嗎？隨著機構採用的增加，政府政策的轉移以及市場波動的增加，分析師正在密切關注，以確定比特幣是否遵循其歷史模式，或者外部因素是否會重塑本週期。接下來的幾個月對於決定比特幣的長期軌跡至關重要。

Historical Halving Trends Suggest More Growth Ahead

歷史減半趨勢表明未來的增長

Bitcoin has been heavily pressured by sellers, mirroring the broader struggles faced by both the crypto market and the US stock market. Macroeconomic uncertainty, trade war fears, and tightening financial conditions have all contributed to weakened investor sentiment, leading to widespread volatility across risk assets.

比特幣受到賣家的巨大壓力，反映了加密貨幣市場和美國股票市場所面臨的更廣泛的鬥爭。宏觀經濟的不確定性，貿易戰爭的恐懼和收緊財務狀況都導致投資者的情緒減弱，從而導致風險資產的廣泛波動。

Since the start of the month, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20%, and the bearish trend appears to be holding. However, despite the short-term weakness, market fundamentals remain strong. Institutional adoption continues to grow, and US President Donald Trump’s plans to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could serve as a major catalyst for future price movements.

自本月初以來，比特幣下降了近20％，看跌趨勢似乎正在持有。但是，儘管短期弱點，市場基本面仍然很強勁。機構的採用不斷增長，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）建立戰略比特幣儲備的計劃可以作為未來價格變動的主要催化劑。

Insights from IntoTheBlock on X highlight that when looking at historical Bitcoin halving cycles, peaks tend to occur 12–18 months after a halving event. This pattern suggests that the current cycle’s top could emerge around mid-to-late 2025.

從X上的intotheblock發出的見解突出顯示，在查看歷史比特幣減半週期時，峰值往往發生在減半事件後12-18個月。這種模式表明，當前週期的頂部可能會在2025年中部至較高的2025年左右出現。

While institutional flows and regulatory developments could introduce new variables into this cycle, IntoTheBlock analysts believe there is still time left before Bitcoin reaches its true peak. If historical trends hold, this correction may be a necessary phase before another major rally unfolds.

儘管機構流量和監管發展可能會將新變量引入該週期，但intotheblock分析師認為，比特幣達到其真實峰值還有時間。如果歷史趨勢成立，則此更正可能是另一個主要集會展開之前的必要階段。

Bitcoin Struggles Below $85K As Bulls Face Critical Resistance

比特幣掙扎以下$ 85K，因為公牛面臨著關鍵的抵抗力

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $84,200, struggling to regain momentum after days of selling pressure that have kept the price below the $85K mark. Bulls must reclaim the $90K-$91K level to confirm a potential recovery, as this range coincides with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA)—key technical levels that often signal trend shifts.

比特幣（BTC）目前的交易價格為84,200美元，經過幾天的銷售壓力，努力恢復了勢頭，這使價格保持在8.5萬美元以下。公牛必須收回$ 90K- $ 91K的水平才能確認潛在的回收率，因為該範圍與4小時的200移動平均線（MA）和指數移動平均線（EMA）（EMA） - 鑰匙技術水平相吻合，這通常表示趨勢變化。

If BTC can break through this resistance, it could trigger a strong upward move, potentially setting the stage for another push toward all-time highs. However, failure to hold above $85K and reclaim the moving averages could lead to further downside pressure, sending Bitcoin below the $80K mark.

如果BTC可以突破這種阻力，它可能會引發強勁的向上移動，有可能為朝著歷史高高推動的舞台奠定基礎。但是，如果不持有超過$ 85K並收回移動平均值可能會導致進一步的下行壓力，從而使比特幣低於$ 80K。

With market sentiment still fragile, bulls face a critical test in the coming days. If BTC remains trapped below resistance, selling pressure could intensify, forcing the market into lower demand zones. On the other hand, a decisive breakout above $90K could restore bullish momentum, signaling a potential end to the recent correction phase. The next trading sessions will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

由於市場情緒仍然脆弱，公牛隊在未來幾天面臨重大考驗。如果BTC仍然被困在電阻以下，那麼銷售壓力可能會加劇，迫使市場進入需求較低的區域。另一方面，超過$ 90k的決定性突破可以恢復看漲的動力，這表明了最近的校正階段的潛在終點。下一次交易課程對於確定比特幣的短期軌跡至關重要。