比特币（BTC）和其他与加密货币相关的东西都已经火了

投机狂潮似乎席卷了市场，这可能导致情绪突然转变和双向价格动荡。

Bitcoin (BTC) and everything else tied to cryptocurrency have been on fire since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. Those looking to board the crypto freight train now should be ready for potential twists and turns in the wild rise as data tracked by JPMorgan and other analysts shows things are getting frenzied out there.

自唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 于 11 月 5 日赢得美国总统大选以来，比特币 (BTC) 和其他与加密货币相关的东西一直在火热进行中。随着数据的疯狂上涨，那些现在想要登上加密货币货运列车的人应该做好准备，应对可能出现的曲折。摩根大通和其他分析师的追踪显示，事情正在变得疯狂。

As BTC rose past the $93,000 mark last week and inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ETFs and crypto stocks surged, JPMorgan's retail sentiment score rose to a record high of 4. The measure is designed to gauge the sentiment of retail investors toward cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, based on the activity in the family of BTC products, including spot ETFs.

随着比特币上周突破 93,000 美元大关，以及流入美国上市现货 ETF 和加密货币股票的资金激增，摩根大通的散户情绪评分升至历史新高 4。该指标旨在衡量散户投资者对加密货币的情绪，尤其是比特币，基于 BTC 产品系列的活动，包括现货 ETF。

"Within ETF space, demand for Bitcoin ETFs was particularly strong (IBIT +3.4z) following the election results. The demand for Bitcoin was also reflected in COIN (+6z). In fact, their sentiment score for the Bitcoin family (for both physical ETFs and others) soared to a multi-sigma high," JPMorgan's equity research team said in a note to clients last week, discussing the retail order imbalance.

“在 ETF 领域，选举结果后对比特币 ETF 的需求特别强劲 (IBIT +3.4z)。对比特币的需求也反映在 COIN (+6z) 中。事实上，他们对比特币家族的情绪评分（对于摩根大通的股票研究团队在上周给客户的一份报告中讨论了零售订单失衡问题时表示，实物 ETF 等）飙升至多个西格玛高点。

The z score of 3.4 and higher indicates a substantial and positive deviation from the average, showing strong demand.

z 得分为 3.4 及更高表明与平均值存在显着的正偏差，表明需求强劲。

Meanwhile, the options market tied to shares in bitcoin-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) exhibited a record bullish sentiment, also pointing to frenzied trading often observed at market peaks.

与此同时，与比特币持有者 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 股票相关的期权市场表现出创纪录的看涨情绪，也表明市场高峰时经常出现的疯狂交易。

The one-year 25-delta put-call skew nosedived to -26.7% on Wednesday. It meant that call options used to hedge against or profit from price rallies traded at a significantly higher premium to puts offering downside, according to a chart from Market Chameleon shared by pseudonymous analyst Markets&Mayhem on X.

周三，一年期 25 Delta 看跌期权偏度急剧下降至 -26.7%。根据匿名分析师 Markets&Mayhem 在 X 上分享的 Market Chameleon 图表，这意味着用于对冲价格上涨或从价格上涨中获利的看涨期权的交易价格明显高于看跌期权的溢价。

The skew recovered somewhat to -11.8% on Friday, still exhibiting a solid bias for upside bets. BTC calls have been consistently pricier than puts, but the differential has been notably narrower than MSTR.

周五，偏度有所恢复至-11.8%，仍然表现出对上行押注的坚定偏好。比特币看涨期权的价格一直高于看跌期权，但差价明显小于 MSTR。

"Call skew in MSTR is so wildly euphoric that it is hard to imagine we don't see a more meaningful drawdown unless bitcoin continues to move in a parabolic fashion higher. For now, it appears to be cooling off just a little bit from its highs," Markets&Mayhem said.

“MSTR 的看涨倾向如此强烈，以至于很难想象我们不会看到更有意义的下跌，除非比特币继续以抛物线方式走高。目前，它似乎正在从其Markets&Mayhem 表示。

Authors of TheMarketEar analytics service referred to the skew as something "beyond extreme upside fear."

TheMarketEar 分析服务的作者将这种偏差称为“超出了极端的上行恐惧”。

So, while BTC and other crypto-linked assets may be solid long-term investments, the surging retail investor sentiment can be unpredictable, potentially leading to a sharp and painful market reversal.

因此，虽然比特币和其他与加密货币相关的资产可能是可靠的长期投资，但散户投资者情绪的高涨可能是不可预测的，可能会导致急剧而痛苦的市场逆转。