比特幣（BTC）和其他與加密貨幣相關的東西都已經火了

投機狂潮似乎席捲了市場，這可能導致情緒突然轉變和雙向價格動盪。

Bitcoin (BTC) and everything else tied to cryptocurrency have been on fire since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. Those looking to board the crypto freight train now should be ready for potential twists and turns in the wild rise as data tracked by JPMorgan and other analysts shows things are getting frenzied out there.

自從唐納德·川普(Donald Trump) 於11 月5 日贏得美國總統大選以來，比特幣(BTC) 和其他與加密貨幣相關的東西一直在火熱進行中。要登上加密貨幣貨運列車的人應該做好準備，以應對可能出現的曲折。

As BTC rose past the $93,000 mark last week and inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ETFs and crypto stocks surged, JPMorgan's retail sentiment score rose to a record high of 4. The measure is designed to gauge the sentiment of retail investors toward cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, based on the activity in the family of BTC products, including spot ETFs.

隨著比特幣上週突破93,000 美元大關，以及流入美國上市現貨ETF 和加密貨幣股票的資金激增，摩根大通的散戶情緒評分升至歷史新高4。情緒，尤其是比特幣，基於 BTC 產品系列的活動，包括現貨 ETF。

"Within ETF space, demand for Bitcoin ETFs was particularly strong (IBIT +3.4z) following the election results. The demand for Bitcoin was also reflected in COIN (+6z). In fact, their sentiment score for the Bitcoin family (for both physical ETFs and others) soared to a multi-sigma high," JPMorgan's equity research team said in a note to clients last week, discussing the retail order imbalance.

「在ETF 領域，選舉結果後對比特幣ETF 的需求特別強勁(IBIT +3.4z)。對比特幣的需求也反映在COIN (+6z) 中。事實上，他們對比特幣家族的情緒評分（對於摩根大通的股票研究團隊在上週給客戶的報告中討論了零售訂單失衡問題時表示，實體 ETF 等）飆升至多個西格瑪高點。

The z score of 3.4 and higher indicates a substantial and positive deviation from the average, showing strong demand.

z 分數為 3.4 及更高表示與平均值有顯著的正偏差，表示需求強勁。

Meanwhile, the options market tied to shares in bitcoin-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) exhibited a record bullish sentiment, also pointing to frenzied trading often observed at market peaks.

同時，與比特幣持有者 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 股票相關的選擇權市場表現出創紀錄的看漲情緒，也顯示市場高峰時經常出現的瘋狂交易。

The one-year 25-delta put-call skew nosedived to -26.7% on Wednesday. It meant that call options used to hedge against or profit from price rallies traded at a significantly higher premium to puts offering downside, according to a chart from Market Chameleon shared by pseudonymous analyst Markets&Mayhem on X.

週三，一年期 25 Delta 看跌期權偏度急劇下降至 -26.7%。根據匿名分析師 Markets&Mayhem 在 X 上分享的 Market Chameleon 圖表，這意味著用於對沖價格上漲或從價格上漲中獲利的看漲期權的交易價格明顯高於看跌期權的溢價。

The skew recovered somewhat to -11.8% on Friday, still exhibiting a solid bias for upside bets. BTC calls have been consistently pricier than puts, but the differential has been notably narrower than MSTR.

週五，偏度有所恢復至-11.8%，仍表現出對上行押注的堅定偏好。比特幣看漲期權的價格一直高於看跌期權，但差價明顯小於 MSTR。

"Call skew in MSTR is so wildly euphoric that it is hard to imagine we don't see a more meaningful drawdown unless bitcoin continues to move in a parabolic fashion higher. For now, it appears to be cooling off just a little bit from its highs," Markets&Mayhem said.

「MSTR 的看漲傾向如此強烈，以至於很難想像我們不會看到更有意義的下跌，除非比特幣繼續以拋物線方式走高。目前，它似乎正在從其Markets&Mayhem 表示。

Authors of TheMarketEar analytics service referred to the skew as something "beyond extreme upside fear."

TheMarketEar 分析服務的作者將這種偏差稱為「超越了極端的上行恐懼」。

So, while BTC and other crypto-linked assets may be solid long-term investments, the surging retail investor sentiment can be unpredictable, potentially leading to a sharp and painful market reversal.

因此，雖然比特幣和其他加密貨幣相關資產可能是可靠的長期投資，但散戶情緒的高漲可能是不可預測的，可能會導致市場急劇而痛苦的逆轉。