比特币（BTC）面对技术和宏十字路口

随着交易者将集会的机会倾斜到130,000美元，比特币（BTC）面临技术和宏十字路口。

Bitcoin (BTC) price faced a technical and macro crossroads on March 24 as traders assessed the chances of a rally toward $130,000 despite limited gains over the weekend.

比特币（BTC）的价格在3月24日面对技术和宏十字路口，因为交易员评估了一场集会的机会，尽管周末有限，但尽管有限的收益有限。

Despite showing signs of strength, BTC/USD remained capped below $92,000, a level that analysts warned could be crucial for stalling the ongoing uptrend.

尽管显示出强度的迹象，但BTC/USD仍处于92,000美元以下，该分析师警告说，这对于阻止正在进行的上升趋势至关重要。

Bitcoin price action remained in a familiar range on Saturday as BTC/USD rose 3% to $88,350.

随着BTC/USD上涨3％至88,350美元，比特币价格行动仍处于熟悉的范围内。

However, despite recent gains and optimism, traders largely focused on the potential failure to close above $92,000.

然而，尽管最近获得了积极和乐观的态度，但贸易商主要集中在潜在的未关闭92,000美元以上的潜在关注。

Crypto trader Pentoshi noted that the cryptocurrency needed a “3d or 1W close” above the $90,000–$92,000 range in order to continue reclaiming higher prices.

加密交易者彭托（Pentoshi）指出，加密货币需要高于90,000美元至92,000美元的“ 3D或1W关闭”，以便继续收回更高的价格。

“It’s still in a lower time frame count and we're getting close to needing a 3d or 1W close above 90–92k for a claim back in my mind,” he wrote in a March 24 X post.

他在3月24日x帖子中写道：“这仍处于较低的时间范围内，我们接近需要3D或1W在90–92k以上的3D或1W接近我的脑海中。”

The final stages of the U.S. government's bailout of the preferred equity tier in 1948.

1948年，美国政府对首选股权层的救助的最后阶段。

The window for buying BTC at a low price may be closing as on-chain data showed a $1.5 billion increase in outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts over 24 hours.

以低价购买BTC的窗口可能会关闭，因为链上数据显示，在24小时内，未偿还的比特币期货合约增加了15亿美元。

But as IT Tech PL, an anonymous analyst on X, pointed out, high open interest (OI) combined with rapid price increases could also trigger liquidation cascades.

但是，正如X上的一位匿名分析师IT Tech PL所指出的那样，高度开放兴趣（OI）与价格快速上涨相结合也可能触发清算级联。

“High OI + Rapid Price Increase = Risk of Liquidation Cascades,” the post read.

“高OI +快速价格上涨=清算级联的风险，”帖子写道。

Lower time frames were already showing overheated signals, but others argued that the current move was still part of a healthy consolidation.

较低的时间范围已经显示出过热的信号，但其他人则认为当前的举动仍然是健康合并的一部分。

As Ali Martinez pointed out, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) had recently hit overbought territory on the 4-hour chart.

正如阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）所指出的那样，比特币的相对强度指数（RSI）最近在4小时的图表上袭击了超买的领土。

However, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. maintained that broader on-chain metrics did not indicate overheating.

但是，比特币研究人员Axel Adler Jr.坚持认为，更广泛的链度指标并未表明过热。

In a new Substack article, Adler Jr. added that BTC was still in a “growth stage” according to cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD), a metric that tracks selling by long-term holders.

Jr.在一篇新的替代文章中补充说，根据累计价值天数（CVDD），BTC仍处于“增长阶段”，该指标跟踪了长期持有人的出售。

The researcher, who correctly predicted the March 2024 Bitcoin sell signal, explained that BTC had only triggered one sell signal during this cycle—which occurred way back in March 2024.

正确预测2024年3月比特币卖出信号的研究人员解释说，BTC在此周期中仅触发了一个卖出信号，这发生在2024年3月。

According to his analysis, CVDD, which is now at -25, would ideally bottom at -50 before the next stage of the cycle began.

根据他的分析，现在位于-25的CVDD理想情况下，在周期的下一个阶段开始之前，CVDD的底部为-50。

According to Adler Jr.’s investor price model, which previously flashed two sell signals in 2021, BTC could hit $130,000 within 90 days.

根据小阿德勒（Adler Jr.）的投资者价格模式，该模型此前在2021年刷新了两个卖出信号，BTC可能会在90天内达到130,000美元。

The model, which factors in market trends and is not necessarily a technical indicator, had previously signaled two interesting price levels—$30,000 and $80,000.

该模型在市场趋势中的因素，不一定是技术指标，以前曾表示两个有趣的价格水平：30,000美元和80,000美元。

BTC price action remained in a familiar range on Saturday as BTC/USD rose 3% over the weekend.

周六，BTC/USD在周末上涨了3％，BTC价格动作仍处于熟悉的范围内。

According to Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan, news of the U.S. government potentially selling gold reserves to buy Bitcoin gave speculators some "hopium."

根据物质指标的共同创始人基思·艾伦（Keith Alan）的说法，美国政府可能出售黄金储量购买比特币的消息给投机者提供了一些“啤酒”。

"With gold in ATH territory, and BTC in a correction, this would be an opportune time," Alan wrote on March 24.

艾伦（Alan）在3月24日写道：“随着Ath领土的黄金，BTC进行了更正，这将是一个合适的时机。”

The S&P 500 rose 1.5% after reports that President Donald Trump might soften the impact of upcoming trade tariffs.

在报道说唐纳德·特朗普总统可能会减轻即将到来的贸易关税的影响之后，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.5％。

According to The Kobeissi Letter, instead of blanket rules, “sector-specific tariffs” would take effect from April 2.

根据Kobeissi的信，从4月2日起，“特定于部门的关税”将生效，而不是毯子规则。

"We're hearing that the administration is planning to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from China, beginning in April, in an effort to reduce the trade deficit and protect American jobs," the report stated.

报告说：“我们听说政府计划从4月开始，从中国进口的所有商品征收25％的关税，以减少贸易赤字并保护美国就业机会。”

The move comes as the U.S. is reportedly considering selling a portion of its gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin.

此举是因为据报道，美国正在考虑出售其一部分黄金储备以购买比特币。

"If true, this would be a surprising and unexpected turn of events. It would also be a major boon for Bitcoin bulls, who have long argued that the cryptocurrency is a perfect hedge against inflation and currency devaluation."

“如果是真的，这将是一个令人惊讶且出乎意料的事件。对于比特币公牛来说，这也将是一个重要的福音，他们长期以来一直认为加密货币是反对通货膨胀和货币贬值的完美对冲。”

On the corporate front, Strategy disclosed a $584 million BTC purchase on March 24, increasing its holdings to 506,137 BTC.

在公司方面，战略在3月24日披露了5.84亿美元的BTC购买，其持股量增加到506,137 BTC。

The firm used funds from the sale of 1.97 million shares and a broader $21 billion stock issuance program.

该公司从出售197万股股票和更广泛的210亿美元发行计划中使用了资金。

While the purchase offered short-term support, critics argued that the company’s aggressive buying could backfire if its funding dried up.

尽管购买提供了短期支持，但批评家认为，如果其资金枯竭，该公司的积极购买可能会适得其反。

However, the broader trend remains constructive. Between March 14 and March 21, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $786 million in net inflows.

但是，更广泛的趋势仍然是建设性的。在3月14日至3月21日之间，比特币现货交易所贸易资金（ETFS）记录了7.86亿美元的净流入。

Despite Adler Jr.'

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