Bitcoin (BTC) Faces a Technical and Macro Crossroads

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a technical and macro crossroads as traders weigh the chances of a rally toward $130,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price faced a technical and macro crossroads on March 24 as traders assessed the chances of a rally toward $130,000 despite limited gains over the weekend.

Despite showing signs of strength, BTC/USD remained capped below $92,000, a level that analysts warned could be crucial for stalling the ongoing uptrend.

Bitcoin price action remained in a familiar range on Saturday as BTC/USD rose 3% to $88,350.

However, despite recent gains and optimism, traders largely focused on the potential failure to close above $92,000.

Crypto trader Pentoshi noted that the cryptocurrency needed a “3d or 1W close” above the $90,000–$92,000 range in order to continue reclaiming higher prices.

“It’s still in a lower time frame count and we're getting close to needing a 3d or 1W close above 90–92k for a claim back in my mind,” he wrote in a March 24 X post.

The final stages of the U.S. government's bailout of the preferred equity tier in 1948.

The window for buying BTC at a low price may be closing as on-chain data showed a $1.5 billion increase in outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts over 24 hours.

But as IT Tech PL, an anonymous analyst on X, pointed out, high open interest (OI) combined with rapid price increases could also trigger liquidation cascades.

“High OI + Rapid Price Increase = Risk of Liquidation Cascades,” the post read.

Lower time frames were already showing overheated signals, but others argued that the current move was still part of a healthy consolidation.

As Ali Martinez pointed out, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) had recently hit overbought territory on the 4-hour chart.

However, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. maintained that broader on-chain metrics did not indicate overheating.

In a new Substack article, Adler Jr. added that BTC was still in a “growth stage” according to cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD), a metric that tracks selling by long-term holders.

The researcher, who correctly predicted the March 2024 Bitcoin sell signal, explained that BTC had only triggered one sell signal during this cycle—which occurred way back in March 2024.

According to his analysis, CVDD, which is now at -25, would ideally bottom at -50 before the next stage of the cycle began.

According to Adler Jr.’s investor price model, which previously flashed two sell signals in 2021, BTC could hit $130,000 within 90 days.

The model, which factors in market trends and is not necessarily a technical indicator, had previously signaled two interesting price levels—$30,000 and $80,000.

BTC price action remained in a familiar range on Saturday as BTC/USD rose 3% over the weekend.

According to Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan, news of the U.S. government potentially selling gold reserves to buy Bitcoin gave speculators some "hopium."

"With gold in ATH territory, and BTC in a correction, this would be an opportune time," Alan wrote on March 24.

The S&P 500 rose 1.5% after reports that President Donald Trump might soften the impact of upcoming trade tariffs.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, instead of blanket rules, “sector-specific tariffs” would take effect from April 2.

"We're hearing that the administration is planning to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from China, beginning in April, in an effort to reduce the trade deficit and protect American jobs," the report stated.

The move comes as the U.S. is reportedly considering selling a portion of its gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin.

"If true, this would be a surprising and unexpected turn of events. It would also be a major boon for Bitcoin bulls, who have long argued that the cryptocurrency is a perfect hedge against inflation and currency devaluation."

On the corporate front, Strategy disclosed a $584 million BTC purchase on March 24, increasing its holdings to 506,137 BTC.

The firm used funds from the sale of 1.97 million shares and a broader $21 billion stock issuance program.

While the purchase offered short-term support, critics argued that the company’s aggressive buying could backfire if its funding dried up.

However, the broader trend remains constructive. Between March 14 and March 21, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $786 million in net inflows.

Despite Adler Jr.'