比特币（BTC）可能会随着中国对人民币（CNY）的控制而激增，从而使其贬值

中国周二放松了对元（CNY）的控制，使其贬值超过了关键水平，这可能是为了回应唐纳德·特朗普总统的积极关税。

China's yuan depreciated beyond a key level on Tuesday, likely in response to President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs, which could favor bitcoin (BTC), crypto analysts anticipate.

加密分析师预计，中国的元素在周二贬值了，这可能是为了应对唐纳德·特朗普总统的积极关税，这可能会有利于比特币（BTC）。

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the so-called daily yuan fix at 7.2038 per dollar early on Tuesday, the weakest since September.

中国人民银行（PBOC）将所谓的每日人民币定为每周7.2038，这是自9月以来最弱的。

The yuan isn't a free float currency like the USD, euro and other G-7 nations and is allowed to trade in a range of 2% on either side of the daily fix announced at 9:15 a.m. Beijing time.

人民币不是像美元，欧元和其他G-7国家这样的自由浮动货币，也可以在北京时间上午9:15宣布的每日修复中的两边交易范围为2％。

The 7.2 level has been considered a "harder line in the sand" for the central bank for years. The USD/CNY pair has traded above the said level a few times since 2022 but never established a foothold.

多年来，中央银行被认为是7.2水平的“沙子中的硬线”。自2022年以来，USD/CNY对已经几次交易了上述水平，但从未建立立足点。

That could change with the PBOC explicitly setting the daily mid-point beyond the 7.2 level. In other words, the move signals a shift to managed depreciation of the yuan, which will help keep China's exports cheaper and competitive, potentially offsetting the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods.

随着PBOC明确将每日中点设置为7.2水平，这种情况可能会发生变化。换句话说，此举标志着元人民币的管理折旧的转变，这将有助于使中国的出口更便宜，竞争力，并有可能抵消特朗普关税对中国商品的负面影响。

Capital flight to BTC?

大型BTC的资本飞行？

The managed depreciation could also trigger capital flight from China, which may find home in cryptocurrencies, according to analysts.

据分析师称，托管折旧还可能触发从中国的资本飞行，这可能会在加密货币中找到房屋。

"The U.S. is now pursuing full-scale economic pressure on China, which may be forced to respond with quantitative easing and a currency devaluation. If so—and if China permits capital flight—Bitcoin could surge, much like it did in 2015," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Monday.

10x研究的创始人Markus Thielen表示：“美国现在正在对中国施加全面的经济压力，这可能会被迫以定量的缓和和货币贬值的措施。

The Chinese central bank devalued the yuan by 1.9% on Aug. 11, 2015, the most significant single-day depreciation in over two decades, sending shockwaves across global financial markets. Bitcoin initially fell over 20% with the U.S. stocks but quickly turned higher and surged nearly 60% in the following four months.

中国中央银行在2015年8月11日将人民币贬值1.9％，这是二十年来最重要的单日折旧，在全球金融市场上引发了冲击波。比特币最初随着美国股票而下降了20％以上，但在接下来的四个月中，比特币迅速变高，飙升了近60％。

Ben Zhou, CEO and founder of the crypto exchange Bybit, voiced a similar opinion on X, saying yuan depreciation tends to bode well for bitcoin.

加密交易所Bybit的首席执行官兼创始人Ben Zhou对X发表了类似的看法，称Yuan折旧倾向于对比特币良好。

"China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff, historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, bullish for BTC," Zhou said on X.

周在X上说：“中国将试图降低元人民币，以应对关税，历史上，每当rmb下降时，中国的资本大量流入BTC，看涨BTC。”

Regulatory hurdles

监管障碍

While history tells us to expect a bullish BTC reaction to yuan depreciation, note that over the years, China has become anti-crypto, citing financial stability risks and has some of the world's harshest regulations.

尽管历史告诉我们期望BTC对人民币折旧的反应，但请注意，多年来，中国以金融稳定的风险为由，并拥有一些世界上最严厉的法规。

A new regulation announced earlier this year requires banks to monitor and report suspicious international transactions, including those involving cryptocurrency. Banks are obligated to investigate and report any risky crypto trades, which may result in financial restrictions and potential blacklisting for the trader.

今年早些时候宣布的一项新法规要求银行监视和报告可疑的国际交易，包括涉及加密货币的交易。银行有义务调查和报告任何风险的加密交易，这可能会导致财务限制和对交易者的潜在黑名单。

The stringent stance means local traders may have a tough time diversifying into bitcoin and other digital assets in the event of a sustained yuan depreciation.

严格的立场意味着，如果持续的人民币折旧，当地交易者可能会艰难地将比特币和其他数字资产多样化。

"Since August 2024, the Supreme People’s Court has significantly increased the legal risks for individuals using cryptocurrencies in connection with money laundering, which could easily extend to cases of capital flight,” Thielen said. “This presents a major deterrent, despite rising economic uncertainty.”

Thielen说：“自2024年8月以来，最高人民法院已大大增加了使用加密货币与洗钱有关的个人的法律风险，这很容易扩展到资本飞行案件。” “尽管经济不确定性越来越大，但这仍然是一种主要的威慑力。”