比特币（BTC）面对一系列危险信号，因为关键指标信号降低了投资者的兴趣

最近几周，比特币（BTC）面临一系列看跌信号，引起了人们对其短期前景的担忧。当前的市场数据表明

Recent weeks have brought a series of bearish signals for Bitcoin (BTC), sparking concerns about its short-term outlook. According to the latest market data, interest from U.S. investors has waned, retail engagement has declined, and the count of active addresses has dropped significantly.

最近几周为比特币（BTC）带来了一系列看跌信号，引发了人们对其短期前景的担忧。根据最新的市场数据，美国投资者的兴趣减弱了，零售参与度下降了，活动地址的计数大大下降。

As Bitcoin approaches crucial support levels, questions arise about whether these worrying indicators might herald the beginning of an extended downturn for the leading cryptocurrency.

随着比特币接近至关重要的支持水平，出现了有关这些令人担忧的指标是否可能预示着领先的加密货币的不断衰退的开始。

Decreasing Investor Interest: Analyzing the Data

减少投资者的兴趣：分析数据

Bitcoin’s price has been trending downward, recently dropping below the $100,000 threshold. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $96,487, reflecting a nearly 2% decline. This price dip corresponds with broader market trends, including a fall in key metrics that assess investor sentiment.

比特币的价格一直在下降，最近下降到100,000美元的门槛以下。在撰写本文时，BTC的交易价格为96,487美元，反映了近2％的下降。这种价格下跌与更广泛的市场趋势相对应，包括评估投资者情绪的关键指标下降。

One such indicator, the Coinbase Premium Index, has recently fallen below zero, hinting at decreasing interest from U.S. investors at Bitcoin’s present price levels.

Coinbase Premium指数的一项指标最近跌至零以下，暗示美国投资者在比特币目前的价格水平上减少了利息。

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase (a U.S.-based exchange) compared to other international exchanges. A negative reading typically indicates reduced demand among U.S. traders. This decline in investor activity serves as an early warning sign of diminishing demand, particularly from one of Bitcoin’s largest markets.

与其他国际交易所相比，Coinbase Premium指数衡量了Coinbase（美国交易所）比特币的价格差异。负读数通常表明美国交易者需求减少。投资者活动的这种下降是需求减少的预警信号，尤其是比特币最大的市场之一。

Falling Active and New Addresses

活跃和新地址

The activity on Bitcoin’s network has also shown indications of slowing down. In the last week, the number of new BTC addresses decreased by 1.02%, suggesting a slowdown in user adoption.

比特币网络上的活动还显示了放缓的指示。在上周，新的BTC地址的数量减少了1.02％，这表明用户采用率放缓。

Alarmingly, the count of active addresses—those engaged in transactions—has fallen by 4.23%. This drop in network participation is a crucial sign of retail investor withdrawal, as these addresses are typically linked to individual users and smaller traders.

令人震惊的是，主动地址的计数（从事交易的人数）下降了4.23％。网络参与的下降是散户投资者提款的关键迹象，因为这些地址通常与个人用户和较小的交易者有关。

Moreover, the total number of zero-balance addresses, which often signifies new users or abandoned accounts, has decreased by 7.89%. This pattern highlights a more extensive decline in retail engagement with the Bitcoin network, reinforcing the notion that interest from small investors may be diminishing.

此外，通常表示新用户或废弃帐户的零余量地址的总数减少了7.89％。这种模式凸显了与比特币网络零售参与的更广泛下降，这加强了这样一种观念，即小型投资者的兴趣可能正在减少。

Effects of Institutional Activity

机构活动的影响

While retail interest appears to be declining, Bitcoin’s transaction statistics reveal a slowdown in institutional participation. Large transactions, especially those ranging between $100,000 and $1 million, have decreased by 10.27%.

尽管零售利息似乎正在下降，但比特币的交易统计数据显示，机构参与的放缓。大型交易，尤其是在100,000美元至100万美元之间的交易，下降了10.27％。

This downturn in substantial transactions may suggest that institutional investors are becoming less inclined to enter the market at these price levels, which could further exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value.

大量交易的这种低迷可能表明，机构投资者越来越倾向于以这些价格水平进入市场，这可能会进一步对比特币的价值施加下降压力。

Conversely, there is a notable trend in small transactions. Transactions valued under $1 have surged by 234.89%. This growth implies that retail participation is still evident, but not at a scale sufficient to trigger significant price increases. While some retail traders remain active, the lack of strong institutional inflows could cap Bitcoin’s upward potential.

相反，小型交易有一个显着的趋势。价值低于$ 1的交易飙升了234.89％。这种增长意味着零售参与仍然很明显，但并非足以触发大幅上涨的规模。尽管一些零售交易员仍然活跃，但缺乏强劲的机构流入可能会限制比特币的上升潜力。

Crucial Price Levels to Monitor

监控的关键价格水平

The price chart for Bitcoin indicates it is testing an essential support level at $96,500. Should this support hold, there may be an opportunity for Bitcoin to attempt a recovery, potentially aiming for resistance at $100,000 and possibly $104,000.

比特币的价格图表明它正在测试基本支持水平，为96,500美元。如果保留此支持，比特币可能会有机会尝试恢复，可能目标是抵抗100,000美元，可能是104,000美元。

However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently at 46.03, the market is positioned neutrally, showing no distinct bullish or bearish momentum. This suggests Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain stagnant unless it can overcome resistance levels with substantial buying pressure.

但是，由于目前46.03的相对强度指数（RSI）的中立位置，没有明显的看涨或看跌势头。这表明比特币的价格可能会停滞不前，除非它可以克服巨大的购买压力来克服阻力水平。

Exchange Netflows and Market Sentiment

交换Netfrows和市场情绪

On a more positive note, Bitcoin’s exchange netflows indicate a potential shift. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced a 4.02% increase in netflows, with more BTC being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited.

从更积极的角度来看，比特币的Exchange Netfrows表明了潜在的转变。在过去的24小时内，比特币的Netflows增长了4.02％，而BTC从交易所中撤出的额超过了存款。

This trend typically indicates reduced selling pressure, as investors are transferring their assets to private wallets for long-term storage. While this is a somewhat hopeful sign, it does not automatically imply imminent bullish momentum, as the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

这种趋势通常表明销售压力降低，因为投资者将其资产转移到私人钱包以进行长期存储。尽管这是一个充满希望的信号，但它并不自动暗示即将来临的看涨势头，因为整体市场情绪仍然谨慎。

Conclusion: Is a Long-Term Downturn Approaching?

结论：长期衰退是否正在临近？

In summary, Bitcoin is currently contending with multiple bearish factors, such as decreasing interest from U.S. investors, a reduction in active addresses, and less institutional engagement. While retail activity is still evident, it is insufficient to counteract the prevailing downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

总而言之，比特币目前正在争夺多种看跌因素，例如减少美国投资者的兴趣，降低主动地址以及较少的机构参与。尽管零售活动仍然显而易见，但不足以抵消比特币价格的普遍下降压力。

The absence of robust buying momentum, coupled with a neutral RSI and uncertain market sentiment, indicates that Bitcoin may face challenges in breaking through resistance levels in the short term. Without a significant shift in sentiment, Bitcoin could continue to consolidate or even face further declines. For now, the likelihood of a prolonged downturn appears to be increasing unless substantial market changes occur.

缺乏强大的购买势头，再加上中立的RSI和不确定的市场情绪，这表明比特币在短期内突破阻力水平时可能面临挑战。没有观点的重大转变，比特币可能会继续巩固甚至会进一步下降。就目前而言，除非发生实质性变化，否则长期衰退的可能性似乎正在增加。