比特币（BTC）攀升到99000美元以上，但开放兴趣趋势引发了有关此激增的可持续性的问题

在X上的最新文章中，加密分析师Maartunn讨论了比特币开放兴趣与最新价格涨幅之间的联系。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) recently climbed back above the $99,000 level, but trends seen in Open Interest may raise questions about the sustainability of this surge.

比特币（Crypto：BTC）最近爬回了99,000美元的水平，但出于开放兴趣的趋势可能会引起有关此激增的可持续性的疑问。

What Happened: In a recent post on Substack, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn discussed the connection between Bitcoin Open Interest and the latest price pump.

发生了什么：在最近的替代文章中，加密分析师Maartunn讨论了比特币开放兴趣与最新价格泵之间的联系。

The term “Open Interest” refers to the total number of active positions related to BTC on all derivatives exchanges. An increase in this metric indicates that derivatives traders are opening new positions.

“开放利息”一词是指与BTC相关的所有衍生品交换中的主动位置的总数。该指标的增加表明衍生品交易者正在开放新的职位。

Typically, this results in a rise in the overall leverage within the market, which can lead to greater price volatility for the cryptocurrency.

通常，这会导致市场内总体杠杆率的提高，这可能会导致加密货币的价格波动更大。

Conversely, if this indicator declines, it suggests that holders are either willingly closing their positions or being liquidated by their trading platform.

相反，如果此指标下降，则表明持有人要么愿意关闭其头寸，要么被其交易平台清算。

After a leverage flushout, the cryptocurrency may experience a more stable market behavior.

杠杆冲洗后，加密货币可能会经历更稳定的市场行为。

Below is the chart shared by the analyst, illustrating the trends in Bitcoin Open Interest along with its 24-hour percentage change from the past week:

以下是分析师共享的图表，说明了比特币开放兴趣的趋势以及与过去一周相比的24小时变化：

The graph indicates a swift increase in Bitcoin Open Interest, coinciding with the recent recovery in the coin’s price. At its peak, the 24-hour percentage change reached 7.2%, a notable figure.

该图表明比特币开放兴趣迅速增加，这与最近的硬币价格回收率相吻合。在其顶峰时，24小时的变化达到7.2％，这是一个值得注意的数字。

While it’s common to see increased speculative activity following a sharp cryptocurrency move, excessive speculation can signal potential risks.

虽然通常会在急剧的加密货币移动后看到投机活动增加，但过度的投机可以表明潜在的风险。

In a high-leverage context, the likelihood of mass liquidations rises significantly. As a result, the volatility stemming from such chaos in the derivatives market could swing the cryptocurrency either way.

在高率的情况下，大规模清算的可能性显着增加。结果，由于衍生品市场的这种混乱而引起的波动都可以使加密货币摆动。

However, spikes in Open Interest typically serve as obstacles to sustained price rallies. Thus, the recent Bitcoin rally may similarly end in a volatile downturn.

但是，开放兴趣的尖峰通常是持续价格集会的障碍。因此，最近的比特币集会可能同样在挥发性的下滑中结束。

Open Interest trends are not the sole indicators suggesting upcoming volatility, as noted by analytics firm Glassnode in a recent post on Substack.

正如分析公司玻璃节在最近的替代文章中所指出的那样，开放兴趣趋势并不是唯一暗示即将波动性的指标。

The chart depicts the 1-week Realized Volatility, an indicator measuring the percentage change between Bitcoin’s highest and lowest prices over the past week.

该图表描述了1周实现的波动性，这是一个指标，衡量了比特币在过去一周的最高和最低价格之间的百分比变化。

The graph shows a recent drop in this metric, suggesting that the asset has been trading within a very tight range.

该图显示了该指标最近的下降，这表明资产的交易范围很紧。

“In the past four years, it has dipped lower only a few times – e.g., in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%),” according to Glassnode. “Previous compressions in the market have often led to significant price movements.”

“在过去的四年中，它仅降低了几次，例如2024年10月（22.88％）和2023年11月（21.35％），” GlassNode称。 “市场上以前的压缩通常导致了巨大的价格变动。”