比特幣（BTC）攀升到99000美元以上，但開放興趣趨勢引發了有關此激增的可持續性的問題

在X上的最新文章中，加密分析師Maartunn討論了比特幣開放興趣與最新價格漲幅之間的聯繫。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) recently climbed back above the $99,000 level, but trends seen in Open Interest may raise questions about the sustainability of this surge.

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）最近爬回了99,000美元的水平，但出於開放興趣的趨勢可能會引起有關此激增的可持續性的疑問。

What Happened: In a recent post on Substack, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn discussed the connection between Bitcoin Open Interest and the latest price pump.

發生了什麼：在最近的替代文章中，加密分析師Maartunn討論了比特幣開放興趣與最新價格泵之間的聯繫。

The term “Open Interest” refers to the total number of active positions related to BTC on all derivatives exchanges. An increase in this metric indicates that derivatives traders are opening new positions.

“開放利息”一詞是指與BTC相關的所有衍生品交換中的主動位置的總數。該指標的增加表明衍生品交易者正在開放新的職位。

Typically, this results in a rise in the overall leverage within the market, which can lead to greater price volatility for the cryptocurrency.

通常，這會導致市場內總體槓桿率的提高，這可能會導致加密貨幣的價格波動更大。

Conversely, if this indicator declines, it suggests that holders are either willingly closing their positions or being liquidated by their trading platform.

相反，如果此指標下降，則表明持有人要么願意關閉其頭寸，要么被其交易平台清算。

After a leverage flushout, the cryptocurrency may experience a more stable market behavior.

槓桿沖洗後，加密貨幣可能會經歷更穩定的市場行為。

Below is the chart shared by the analyst, illustrating the trends in Bitcoin Open Interest along with its 24-hour percentage change from the past week:

以下是分析師共享的圖表，說明了比特幣開放興趣的趨勢以及與過去一周相比的24小時變化：

The graph indicates a swift increase in Bitcoin Open Interest, coinciding with the recent recovery in the coin’s price. At its peak, the 24-hour percentage change reached 7.2%, a notable figure.

該圖表明比特幣開放興趣迅速增加，這與最近的硬幣價格回收率相吻合。在其頂峰時，24小時的變化達到7.2％，這是一個值得注意的數字。

While it’s common to see increased speculative activity following a sharp cryptocurrency move, excessive speculation can signal potential risks.

雖然通常會在急劇的加密貨幣移動後看到投機活動增加，但過度的投機可以表明潛在的風險。

In a high-leverage context, the likelihood of mass liquidations rises significantly. As a result, the volatility stemming from such chaos in the derivatives market could swing the cryptocurrency either way.

在高率的情況下，大規模清算的可能性顯著增加。結果，由於衍生品市場的這種混亂而引起的波動都可以使加密貨幣擺動。

However, spikes in Open Interest typically serve as obstacles to sustained price rallies. Thus, the recent Bitcoin rally may similarly end in a volatile downturn.

但是，開放興趣的尖峰通常是持續價格集會的障礙。因此，最近的比特幣集會可能同樣在揮發性的下滑中結束。

Open Interest trends are not the sole indicators suggesting upcoming volatility, as noted by analytics firm Glassnode in a recent post on Substack.

正如分析公司玻璃節在最近的替代文章中所指出的那樣，開放興趣趨勢並不是唯一暗示即將波動性的指標。

The chart depicts the 1-week Realized Volatility, an indicator measuring the percentage change between Bitcoin’s highest and lowest prices over the past week.

該圖表描述了1週實現的波動性，這是一個指標，衡量了比特幣在過去一周的最高和最低價格之間的百分比變化。

The graph shows a recent drop in this metric, suggesting that the asset has been trading within a very tight range.

該圖顯示了該指標最近的下降，這表明資產的交易範圍很緊。

“In the past four years, it has dipped lower only a few times – e.g., in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%),” according to Glassnode. “Previous compressions in the market have often led to significant price movements.”

“在過去的四年中，它僅降低了幾次，例如2024年10月（22.88％）和2023年11月（21.35％），” GlassNode稱。 “市場上以前的壓縮通常導致了巨大的價格變動。”