比特幣（BTC）面對一系列危險信號，因為關鍵指標信號降低了投資者的興趣

最近幾週，比特幣（BTC）面臨一系列看跌信號，引起了人們對其短期前景的擔憂。當前的市場數據表明

Recent weeks have brought a series of bearish signals for Bitcoin (BTC), sparking concerns about its short-term outlook. According to the latest market data, interest from U.S. investors has waned, retail engagement has declined, and the count of active addresses has dropped significantly.

最近幾週為比特幣（BTC）帶來了一系列看跌信號，引發了人們對其短期前景的擔憂。根據最新的市場數據，美國投資者的興趣減弱了，零售參與度下降了，活動地址的計數大大下降。

As Bitcoin approaches crucial support levels, questions arise about whether these worrying indicators might herald the beginning of an extended downturn for the leading cryptocurrency.

隨著比特幣接近至關重要的支持水平，出現了有關這些令人擔憂的指標是否可能預示著領先的加密貨幣的不斷衰退的開始。

Decreasing Investor Interest: Analyzing the Data

減少投資者的興趣：分析數據

Bitcoin’s price has been trending downward, recently dropping below the $100,000 threshold. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $96,487, reflecting a nearly 2% decline. This price dip corresponds with broader market trends, including a fall in key metrics that assess investor sentiment.

比特幣的價格一直在下降，最近下降到100,000美元的門檻以下。在撰寫本文時，BTC的交易價格為96,487美元，反映了近2％的下降。這種價格下跌與更廣泛的市場趨勢相對應，包括評估投資者情緒的關鍵指標下降。

One such indicator, the Coinbase Premium Index, has recently fallen below zero, hinting at decreasing interest from U.S. investors at Bitcoin’s present price levels.

Coinbase Premium指數的一項指標最近跌至零以下，暗示美國投資者在比特幣目前的價格水平上減少了利息。

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase (a U.S.-based exchange) compared to other international exchanges. A negative reading typically indicates reduced demand among U.S. traders. This decline in investor activity serves as an early warning sign of diminishing demand, particularly from one of Bitcoin’s largest markets.

與其他國際交易所相比，Coinbase Premium指數衡量了Coinbase（美國交易所）比特幣的價格差異。負讀數通常表明美國交易者需求減少。投資者活動的這種下降是需求減少的預警信號，尤其是比特幣最大的市場之一。

Falling Active and New Addresses

活躍和新地址

The activity on Bitcoin’s network has also shown indications of slowing down. In the last week, the number of new BTC addresses decreased by 1.02%, suggesting a slowdown in user adoption.

比特幣網絡上的活動還顯示了放緩的指示。在上週，新的BTC地址的數量減少了1.02％，這表明用戶採用率放緩。

Alarmingly, the count of active addresses—those engaged in transactions—has fallen by 4.23%. This drop in network participation is a crucial sign of retail investor withdrawal, as these addresses are typically linked to individual users and smaller traders.

令人震驚的是，主動地址的計數（從事交易的人數）下降了4.23％。網絡參與的下降是散戶投資者提款的關鍵跡象，因為這些地址通常與個人用戶和較小的交易者有關。

Moreover, the total number of zero-balance addresses, which often signifies new users or abandoned accounts, has decreased by 7.89%. This pattern highlights a more extensive decline in retail engagement with the Bitcoin network, reinforcing the notion that interest from small investors may be diminishing.

此外，通常表示新用戶或廢棄帳戶的零餘量地址的總數減少了7.89％。這種模式凸顯了與比特幣網絡零售參與的更廣泛下降，這加強了這樣一種觀念，即小型投資者的興趣可能正在減少。

Effects of Institutional Activity

機構活動的影響

While retail interest appears to be declining, Bitcoin’s transaction statistics reveal a slowdown in institutional participation. Large transactions, especially those ranging between $100,000 and $1 million, have decreased by 10.27%.

儘管零售利息似乎正在下降，但比特幣的交易統計數據顯示，機構參與的放緩。大型交易，尤其是在100,000美元至100萬美元之間的交易，下降了10.27％。

This downturn in substantial transactions may suggest that institutional investors are becoming less inclined to enter the market at these price levels, which could further exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value.

大量交易的這種低迷可能表明，機構投資者越來越傾向於以這些價格水平進入市場，這可能會進一步對比特幣的價值施加下降壓力。

Conversely, there is a notable trend in small transactions. Transactions valued under $1 have surged by 234.89%. This growth implies that retail participation is still evident, but not at a scale sufficient to trigger significant price increases. While some retail traders remain active, the lack of strong institutional inflows could cap Bitcoin’s upward potential.

相反，小型交易有一個顯著的趨勢。價值低於$ 1的交易飆升了234.89％。這種增長意味著零售參與仍然很明顯，但並非足以觸發大幅上漲的規模。儘管一些零售交易員仍然活躍，但缺乏強勁的機構流入可能會限制比特幣的上升潛力。

Crucial Price Levels to Monitor

監控的關鍵價格水平

The price chart for Bitcoin indicates it is testing an essential support level at $96,500. Should this support hold, there may be an opportunity for Bitcoin to attempt a recovery, potentially aiming for resistance at $100,000 and possibly $104,000.

比特幣的價格圖表明它正在測試基本支持水平，為96,500美元。如果保留此支持，比特幣可能會有機會嘗試恢復，可能目標是抵抗100,000美元，可能是104,000美元。

However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently at 46.03, the market is positioned neutrally, showing no distinct bullish or bearish momentum. This suggests Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain stagnant unless it can overcome resistance levels with substantial buying pressure.

但是，由於目前46.03的相對強度指數（RSI）的中立位置，沒有明顯的看漲或看跌勢頭。這表明比特幣的價格可能會停滯不前，除非它可以克服巨大的購買壓力來克服阻力水平。

Exchange Netflows and Market Sentiment

交換Netfrows和市場情緒

On a more positive note, Bitcoin’s exchange netflows indicate a potential shift. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced a 4.02% increase in netflows, with more BTC being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited.

從更積極的角度來看，比特幣的Exchange Netfrows表明了潛在的轉變。在過去的24小時內，比特幣的Netflows增長了4.02％，而BTC從交易所中撤出的額超過了存款。

This trend typically indicates reduced selling pressure, as investors are transferring their assets to private wallets for long-term storage. While this is a somewhat hopeful sign, it does not automatically imply imminent bullish momentum, as the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

這種趨勢通常表明銷售壓力降低，因為投資者將其資產轉移到私人錢包以進行長期存儲。儘管這是一個充滿希望的信號，但它並不自動暗示即將來臨的看漲勢頭，因為整體市場情緒仍然謹慎。

Conclusion: Is a Long-Term Downturn Approaching?

結論：長期衰退是否正在臨近？

In summary, Bitcoin is currently contending with multiple bearish factors, such as decreasing interest from U.S. investors, a reduction in active addresses, and less institutional engagement. While retail activity is still evident, it is insufficient to counteract the prevailing downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

總而言之，比特幣目前正在爭奪多種看跌因素，例如減少美國投資者的興趣，降低主動地址以及較少的機構參與。儘管零售活動仍然顯而易見，但不足以抵消比特幣價格的普遍下降壓力。

The absence of robust buying momentum, coupled with a neutral RSI and uncertain market sentiment, indicates that Bitcoin may face challenges in breaking through resistance levels in the short term. Without a significant shift in sentiment, Bitcoin could continue to consolidate or even face further declines. For now, the likelihood of a prolonged downturn appears to be increasing unless substantial market changes occur.

缺乏強大的購買勢頭，再加上中立的RSI和不確定的市場情緒，這表明比特幣在短期內突破阻力水平時可能面臨挑戰。沒有觀點的重大轉變，比特幣可能會繼續鞏固甚至會進一步下降。就目前而言，除非發生實質性變化，否則長期衰退的可能性似乎正在增加。