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尽管在市场所谓的“九月效应”期间出现了历史上的负回报,但比特币 (BTC) 的 9 月表现还是不错的。
Bitcoin (BTC) is making a positive September despite the historically negative returns during what the market calls the “September Effect.” Now, traders and investors are looking ahead to the upcoming “Uptober,” the market’s moniker for a historically positive month, October.
尽管在市场所谓的“九月效应”期间出现了历史上的负回报,但比特币 (BTC) 的 9 月表现还是不错的。现在,交易员和投资者正在展望即将到来的“Uptober”,这是市场对历史性积极月份(十月)的绰号。
As reported by Finbold on September 24, an analysis by J.P. Morgan analysts showed that Bitcoin has historically delivered an average loss of 3.72% during September. However, the BTC price has registered gains of nearly 8% so far this month, according to data retrieved by Finbold from CoinGlass on September 25.
据 Finbold 9 月 24 日报道,摩根大通分析师的分析显示,比特币在 9 月份的历史平均跌幅为 3.72%。然而,根据 Finbold 9 月 25 日从 CoinGlass 检索到的数据,本月迄今为止 BTC 价格已上涨近 8%。
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
比特币每月回报。来源:CoinGlass
Notably, October has average and median results of 22.9% and 27.7%, respectively, since 2013, explaining the moniker. Meanwhile, the “September Effect” results in a negative 3.72% and 4.35% average and median for the current month.
值得注意的是,自 2013 年以来,10 月份的平均结果和中值结果分别为 22.9% 和 27.7%,这解释了这个绰号。与此同时,“九月效应”导致当月平均值和中位数分别为负 3.72% 和 4.35%。
In 2023, Bitcoin gained 28.52% from Uptober’s opening to closing after having a 3.91% September. Interestingly, BTC only had two losing Octobers in its history. One in 2014, down 12.95%, and most recently in 2018, down 3.83%.
2023 年,比特币从 Uptober 开盘到收盘上涨了 28.52%,而 9 月份的涨幅为 3.91%。有趣的是,BTC 历史上仅经历过两次 10 月份下跌的情况。其中一项是 2014 年,下降了 12.95%,最近一次是 2018 年,下降了 3.83%。
Bitcoin needs to clear retail’s long positions before Uptober starts
比特币需要在 Uptober 开始之前清算散户的多头头寸
However, BTC still has significant liquidity to the downside, given a bullish momentum growing amid long-position traders. Ideally, from a technical and psychological perspective, Bitcoin first needs to clear retail’s long positions before Uptober starts.
然而,鉴于多头交易者的看涨势头不断增强,比特币仍然拥有大量下行流动性。理想情况下,从技术和心理角度来看,比特币首先需要在Uptober开始之前清算散户的多头头寸。
This is because whales, market makers, and institutional traders require liquidity to profit, usually moving against market trends.
这是因为鲸鱼、做市商和机构交易者需要流动性才能获利,通常与市场趋势相反。
Looking at the two-week liquidation heatmap, we can see three points of high liquidity, likely targets for the big players. In particular, the downside accumulates the two most significant pools at $62,000 and $57,000.
看看两周的清算热图,我们可以看到三个高流动性点,这可能是大型企业的目标。特别是,下行累积了两个最重要的资金池,分别为 62,000 美元和 57,000 美元。
Bitcoin two-week liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass
比特币两周清算热图。来源:Coinglass
While Bitcoin can move into the “Uptober mode” without clearing these levels, liquidity pools are strong magnets worth considering. Essentially, the market has a high chance of first seeing an aggressive move down, liquidating these longs, before moving up.
虽然比特币可以在不清除这些水平的情况下进入“Uptober 模式”,但流动性池是值得考虑的强大磁铁。从本质上讲,市场很有可能首先看到大幅下跌,在上涨之前清算这些多头。
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
比特币(BTC)价格分析
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,380, in what could be the start of a downside move. Yet, BTC moves in a short-term uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs in the seven-day time frame.
截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 63,380 美元,这可能是下行走势的开始。然而,比特币处于短期上升趋势,在 7 天的时间范围内创造了更高的低点和更高的高点。
The first long squeeze targets are right below the first higher low in the weekly chart, while the short squeeze liquidity pools lie above the higher highs.
第一个多头挤压目标位于周线图中第一个较高低点的正下方,而空头挤压流动性池则位于较高高点之上。
Indeed, most reputable analysts are calling for lower prices before Bitcoin can enter its “full bull gear.” Alan Santana has been really vocal about his BTC bearish analyses, as Finbold reported on different occasions. Most recently, Santana warned that Bitcoin first needs to crash and produce one major low before Uptober starts.
事实上,大多数知名分析师都呼吁在比特币进入“全面牛市”之前降低价格。正如 Finbold 在不同场合所报道的那样,艾伦·桑塔纳 (Alan Santana) 一直直言不讳地表达了他对 BTC 的看跌分析。最近,桑塔纳警告说,在 Uptober 开始之前,比特币首先需要崩溃并产生一个重大低点。
Nevertheless, the trading expert is bullish on altcoins, joining other traders who believe “an altseason is just around the corner” as mid and small-caps are breaking out of a downtrend, as we published earlier today.
尽管如此,正如我们今天早些时候发布的那样,这位交易专家仍然看好山寨币,他与其他交易者一样相信“山寨币季节即将到来”,因为中小型股正在突破下跌趋势。
In summary, Bitcoin may visit lower levels before it sets a clear path for sustainable growth in October, potentially consolidating its historical positive performance and delivering yet another Uptober in 2024.
总而言之,比特币可能会在 10 月份为可持续增长设定明确的路径之前触及较低水平,从而有可能巩固其历史上的积极表现,并在 2024 年再次实现 Uptober。
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