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儘管在市場所謂的「九月效應」期間出現了歷史上的負回報,但比特幣 (BTC) 的 9 月表現還是不錯的。
Bitcoin (BTC) is making a positive September despite the historically negative returns during what the market calls the “September Effect.” Now, traders and investors are looking ahead to the upcoming “Uptober,” the market’s moniker for a historically positive month, October.
儘管在市場所謂的「九月效應」期間出現了歷史上的負回報,但比特幣 (BTC) 的 9 月表現還是不錯的。現在,交易員和投資者正在展望即將到來的“Uptober”,這是市場對歷史性積極月份(十月)的綽號。
As reported by Finbold on September 24, an analysis by J.P. Morgan analysts showed that Bitcoin has historically delivered an average loss of 3.72% during September. However, the BTC price has registered gains of nearly 8% so far this month, according to data retrieved by Finbold from CoinGlass on September 25.
根據 Finbold 9 月 24 日報道,摩根大通分析師的分析顯示,比特幣在 9 月的歷史平均跌幅為 3.72%。然而,根據 Finbold 9 月 25 日從 CoinGlass 檢索到的數據,本月迄今 BTC 價格已上漲近 8%。
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
比特幣每月回報。來源:CoinGlass
Notably, October has average and median results of 22.9% and 27.7%, respectively, since 2013, explaining the moniker. Meanwhile, the “September Effect” results in a negative 3.72% and 4.35% average and median for the current month.
值得注意的是,自 2013 年以來,10 月的平均結果和中位數結果分別為 22.9% 和 27.7%,這解釋了這個綽號。同時,「九月效應」導致當月平均值和中位數分別為負 3.72% 和 4.35%。
In 2023, Bitcoin gained 28.52% from Uptober’s opening to closing after having a 3.91% September. Interestingly, BTC only had two losing Octobers in its history. One in 2014, down 12.95%, and most recently in 2018, down 3.83%.
2023 年,比特幣從 Uptober 開盤到收盤上漲了 28.52%,而 9 月的漲幅為 3.91%。有趣的是,BTC 歷史上僅經歷過兩次 10 月下跌的情況。其中一項是 2014 年,下降了 12.95%,最近一次是 2018 年,下降了 3.83%。
Bitcoin needs to clear retail’s long positions before Uptober starts
比特幣需要在 Uptober 開始之前清算散戶的多頭頭寸
However, BTC still has significant liquidity to the downside, given a bullish momentum growing amid long-position traders. Ideally, from a technical and psychological perspective, Bitcoin first needs to clear retail’s long positions before Uptober starts.
然而,鑑於多頭交易者的看漲勢頭不斷增強,比特幣仍然擁有大量下行流動性。理想情況下,從技術和心理角度來看,比特幣首先需要在Uptober開始之前清算散戶的多頭部位。
This is because whales, market makers, and institutional traders require liquidity to profit, usually moving against market trends.
這是因為鯨魚、做市商和機構交易者需要流動性才能獲利,通常與市場趨勢相反。
Looking at the two-week liquidation heatmap, we can see three points of high liquidity, likely targets for the big players. In particular, the downside accumulates the two most significant pools at $62,000 and $57,000.
看看兩週的清算熱圖,我們可以看到三個高流動性點,這可能是大型企業的目標。特別是,下行累積了兩個最重要的資金池,分別為 62,000 美元和 57,000 美元。
Bitcoin two-week liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass
比特幣兩週清算熱圖。來源:Coinglass
While Bitcoin can move into the “Uptober mode” without clearing these levels, liquidity pools are strong magnets worth considering. Essentially, the market has a high chance of first seeing an aggressive move down, liquidating these longs, before moving up.
雖然比特幣可以在不清除這些水平的情況下進入“Uptober 模式”,但流動性池是值得考慮的強大磁鐵。從本質上講,市場很有可能首先看到大幅下跌,在上漲之前清算這些多頭部位。
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
比特幣(BTC)價格分析
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,380, in what could be the start of a downside move. Yet, BTC moves in a short-term uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs in the seven-day time frame.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格為 63,380 美元,這可能是下行走勢的開始。然而,比特幣處於短期上升趨勢,在 7 天的時間範圍內創造了更高的低點和更高的高點。
The first long squeeze targets are right below the first higher low in the weekly chart, while the short squeeze liquidity pools lie above the higher highs.
第一個多頭擠壓目標位於週線圖中第一個較高低點的正下方,而空頭擠壓流動性池則位於較高高點之上。
Indeed, most reputable analysts are calling for lower prices before Bitcoin can enter its “full bull gear.” Alan Santana has been really vocal about his BTC bearish analyses, as Finbold reported on different occasions. Most recently, Santana warned that Bitcoin first needs to crash and produce one major low before Uptober starts.
事實上,大多數知名分析師都呼籲在比特幣進入「全面牛市」之前降低價格。正如 Finbold 在不同場合所報導的那樣,艾倫桑塔納 (Alan Santana) 一直直言不諱地表達了他對 BTC 的看跌分析。最近,桑塔納警告說,在 Uptober 開始之前,比特幣首先需要崩潰並產生一個重大低點。
Nevertheless, the trading expert is bullish on altcoins, joining other traders who believe “an altseason is just around the corner” as mid and small-caps are breaking out of a downtrend, as we published earlier today.
儘管如此,正如我們今天早些時候發布的那樣,這位交易專家仍然看好山寨幣,他與其他交易者一樣相信“山寨幣季節即將到來”,因為中小型股正在突破下跌趨勢。
In summary, Bitcoin may visit lower levels before it sets a clear path for sustainable growth in October, potentially consolidating its historical positive performance and delivering yet another Uptober in 2024.
總而言之,比特幣可能會在 10 月為永續成長設定明確的路徑之前觸及較低水平,從而有可能鞏固其歷史上的積極表現,並在 2024 年再次實現 Uptober。
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