比特币（BTC）可以将美元替换为全球储备货币吗？

如果您是加密货币的新手，这是您以前可能从未听说过的一个想法：比特币（BTC）可以准备挑战美元作为世界储备货币。

If you're new to crypto, here's one idea you might not have heard before: Bitcoin (BTC 1.11%) could be ready to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. That type of transformative change, of course, would be history-making, and it would require a fundamental restructuring of the global financial system -- sort of like we're seeing right now, with tariffs and the potential for a global trade war.

如果您是加密货币的新手，这是您以前可能从未听说过的一个想法：比特币（BTC 1.11％）可以准备挑战美元作为世界储备货币。当然，这种变革性变革的类型将是历史的创造，它将需要对全球金融体系进行基本的重组 - 就像我们现在看到的关税和全球贸易战的潜力一样。

In his annual letter to investors this year, BlackRock (BLK 2.41%) CEO and Chairman, Larry Fink, suggested that Bitcoin had the potential to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Is that scenario really possible? And if it is, what does it mean for Bitcoin's future?

BlackRock（BLK 2.41％）首席执行官兼董事长Larry Fink在今年致投资者的年度信中，建议比特币有可能取代美元作为全球储备货币。这种情况真的可能吗？如果是，这对比特币的未来意味着什么？

The case for Bitcoin as a reserve currency

比特币作为储备货币的情况

There's obviously a lot to unpack here. The first is the entire notion of what a reserve currency should be, and what role it plays in the global economy. The easiest way to think about a reserve currency is that it is the one currency that you need to do business in the world. So it needs to be truly global. It needs to function as a medium of exchange for trade and investment. And it needs to be accepted and used by citizens in every sovereign nation.

这里显然有很多东西要打开包装。首先是储备货币应该是什么，以及它在全球经济中扮演的角色。考虑储备货币的最简单方法是，它是您在世界上开展业务所需的一种货币。因此，它必须是真正的全球性。它需要作为贸易和投资的交换媒介。而且，它需要在每个主权国家的公民接受和使用。

According to crypto enthusiasts, Bitcoin meets -- at least on paper -- the required characteristics to be the world's reserve currency. In fact, for more than a decade, Bitcoin bulls have been making the argument that Bitcoin would eventually replace the U.S. dollar. They view Bitcoin as "sound money," while fiat currencies are fundamentally flawed, due to the ability of governments to print vast sums of money.

根据加密爱好者的说法，比特币至少在纸上见面是世界储备货币所需的特征。实际上，十多年来，比特币公牛一直在争论比特币最终取代美元。他们将比特币视为“声音金钱”，而菲亚特货币从根本上存在缺陷，这是由于政府打印了巨额资金的能力。

At some point in time, the thinking goes, people will prefer to hold Bitcoin rather than dollars. Sovereign governments and central banks will choose to stockpile Bitcoin rather than dollars. Assets will begin to be priced in Bitcoin, rather than in dollars, to facilitate global trade. Eventually, the dollar will become just like the pound, which served as the world's reserve currency for more than a century.

在某个时间点，人们会想拥有比特币而不是美元。主权政府和中央银行将选择储备比特币而不是美元。资产将开始以比特币而不是美元定价，以促进全球贸易。最终，美元将就像英镑一样，它是一个多世纪以来世界的储备货币。

Larry Fink's letter to investors

拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）给投资者的信

That's all you need to understand the context of Fink's annual letter to investors. As Fink points out in his 2025 letter: "The U.S. has benefited from the dollar serving as the world's reserve currency for decades. But that's not guaranteed to last forever." He points specifically to the nation's growing debt load, which has grown at 3 times the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) since 1989. In 2025, says Fink, interest payments on that debt will reach nearly $1 trillion, which is more than the U.S. spends on defense.

这就是您需要了解Fink年度给投资者的年度信件的上下文。正如Fink在他2025年的信中指出的那样：“美国已经从数十年的全球储备货币中受益。但这不能保证永远持续下去。”他专门指向美国日益增长的债务负荷，自1989年以来，国内生产总值（GDP）的3倍增长。2025年，Fink说，该债务的利息支付将达到近1万亿美元，这比美国在国防上的支出还要多。

At some point, it's just not sustainable. The expanding U.S. debt load is a potential house of cards, the unfortunate outcome of America living beyond its means for decades. This is a point that Fink drives home: "If the U.S. doesn't get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin."

在某个时候，这是不可持续的。不断扩大的美国债务负荷是潜在的纸牌屋，这是美国超越其数十年来生活的不幸结果。这是Fink将回家带回家的一点：“如果美国无法控制债务，如果赤字保持膨胀，美国有可能将该立场丢给像比特币这样的数字资产。”

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

In many ways, what is happening now in America is similar to what happened to Great Britain in the last century. Paying for two world wars at the start of the 20th century nearly bankrupted Great Britain, eventually forcing it to cede its place in the global economy to the United States.

在许多方面，美国现在正在发生的事情类似于上个世纪大不列颠发生的事情。在20世纪初为两次世界大战付费，几乎破产了英国，最终迫使其将其在全球经济中的地位割让给美国。

How likely is this scenario?

这种情况有多大的可能性？

It's hard to imagine a world where Bitcoin takes over immediately. As in the case of the dollar replacing the pound, it will take massive international cooperation. In 1944, it took the Bretton Woods Agreement to make it happen, when dozens of nations from around the world met in New Hampshire to hammer out a deal. In addition to holding gold, the nations agreed to hold dollars, which were backed by the world's largest gold supply at the time. And they agreed on the role of central banks in setting exchange rates pegged to the dollar.

很难想象一个比特币立即接管的世界。就像美元取代英镑一样，这将需要进行大规模的国际合作。 1944年，布雷顿·伍兹（Bretton Woods）的协议实现了这一目标，当时世界各地的数十名国家在新罕布什尔州见面以达成协议。除了持有黄金之外，各国同意持有美元，这是当时受到世界上最大的黄金供应的支持。他们同意中央银行在设定汇率挂钩的汇率方面的作用。

A similar type of massive global cooperation involving Bitcoin might strike some people as being preposterous. But just look at what is happening now with tariffs and a potential trade war with China. Any time the White House says something like "50 nations called us to discuss a deal," I think about a new Bretton Woods.

类似类型的大规模全球合作涉及比特币，可能会使某些人荒谬。但是，只要看看关税和与中国的潜在贸易战正在发生的事情。每当白宫都说“ 50个国家打电话给我们讨论交易”时，我都会想到一个新的布雷顿伍兹。

Bitcoin and the global financial system

比特币和全球金融体系

The current debate over tariffs and trade is exposing all the interdependencies between fiscal deficits, trade deficits, and global economic growth. We're learning about the fragility of the equity and debt markets, and how investor perceptions can change on a dime. The past few weeks have been a crash course in macroeconomics for many investors.

当前关于关税和贸易的辩论正在暴露财政缺陷，贸易赤字和全球经济增长之间的所有相互依存。我们正在学习股票和债务市场的脆弱性，以及投资者的看法如何在一毛钱上改变。过去的几周是许多投资者的宏观经济学课程。

Against this backdrop, sovereign governments and central banks are starting to stockpile Bitcoin, with the U.S. leading the way with its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Russia and China are

在这种背景下，主权政府和中央银行开始库存比特币，美国以其战略性比特币储备领先。俄罗斯和中国是