比特幣（BTC）可以將美元替換為全球儲備貨幣嗎？

如果您是加密貨幣的新手，這是您以前可能從未聽說過的一個想法：比特幣（BTC）可以準備挑戰美元作為世界儲備貨幣。

If you're new to crypto, here's one idea you might not have heard before: Bitcoin (BTC 1.11%) could be ready to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. That type of transformative change, of course, would be history-making, and it would require a fundamental restructuring of the global financial system -- sort of like we're seeing right now, with tariffs and the potential for a global trade war.

如果您是加密貨幣的新手，這是您以前可能從未聽說過的一個想法：比特幣（BTC 1.11％）可以準備挑戰美元作為世界儲備貨幣。當然，這種變革性變革的類型將是歷史的創造，它將需要對全球金融體系進行基本的重組 - 就像我們現在看到的關稅和全球貿易戰的潛力一樣。

In his annual letter to investors this year, BlackRock (BLK 2.41%) CEO and Chairman, Larry Fink, suggested that Bitcoin had the potential to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Is that scenario really possible? And if it is, what does it mean for Bitcoin's future?

BlackRock（BLK 2.41％）首席執行官兼董事長Larry Fink在今年致投資者的年度信中，建議比特幣有可能取代美元作為全球儲備貨幣。這種情況真的可能嗎？如果是，這對比特幣的未來意味著什麼？

The case for Bitcoin as a reserve currency

比特幣作為儲備貨幣的情況

There's obviously a lot to unpack here. The first is the entire notion of what a reserve currency should be, and what role it plays in the global economy. The easiest way to think about a reserve currency is that it is the one currency that you need to do business in the world. So it needs to be truly global. It needs to function as a medium of exchange for trade and investment. And it needs to be accepted and used by citizens in every sovereign nation.

這裡顯然有很多東西要打開包裝。首先是儲備貨幣應該是什麼，以及它在全球經濟中扮演的角色。考慮儲備貨幣的最簡單方法是，它是您在世界上開展業務所需的一種貨幣。因此，它必須是真正的全球性。它需要作為貿易和投資的交換媒介。而且，它需要在每個主權國家的公民接受和使用。

According to crypto enthusiasts, Bitcoin meets -- at least on paper -- the required characteristics to be the world's reserve currency. In fact, for more than a decade, Bitcoin bulls have been making the argument that Bitcoin would eventually replace the U.S. dollar. They view Bitcoin as "sound money," while fiat currencies are fundamentally flawed, due to the ability of governments to print vast sums of money.

根據加密愛好者的說法，比特幣至少在紙上見面是世界儲備貨幣所需的特徵。實際上，十多年來，比特幣公牛一直在爭論比特幣最終取代美元。他們將比特幣視為“聲音金錢”，而菲亞特貨幣從根本上存在缺陷，這是由於政府打印了巨額資金的能力。

At some point in time, the thinking goes, people will prefer to hold Bitcoin rather than dollars. Sovereign governments and central banks will choose to stockpile Bitcoin rather than dollars. Assets will begin to be priced in Bitcoin, rather than in dollars, to facilitate global trade. Eventually, the dollar will become just like the pound, which served as the world's reserve currency for more than a century.

在某個時間點，人們會想擁有比特幣而不是美元。主權政府和中央銀行將選擇儲備比特幣而不是美元。資產將開始以比特幣而不是美元定價，以促進全球貿易。最終，美元將就像英鎊一樣，它是一個多世紀以來世界的儲備貨幣。

Larry Fink's letter to investors

拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）給投資者的信

That's all you need to understand the context of Fink's annual letter to investors. As Fink points out in his 2025 letter: "The U.S. has benefited from the dollar serving as the world's reserve currency for decades. But that's not guaranteed to last forever." He points specifically to the nation's growing debt load, which has grown at 3 times the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) since 1989. In 2025, says Fink, interest payments on that debt will reach nearly $1 trillion, which is more than the U.S. spends on defense.

這就是您需要了解Fink年度給投資者的年度信件的上下文。正如Fink在他2025年的信中指出的那樣：“美國已經從數十年的全球儲備貨幣中受益。但這不能保證永遠持續下去。”他專門指向美國日益增長的債務負荷，自1989年以來，國內生產總值（GDP）的3倍增長。 2025年，Fink說，該債務的利息支付將達到近1萬億美元，這比美國在國防上的支出還要多。

At some point, it's just not sustainable. The expanding U.S. debt load is a potential house of cards, the unfortunate outcome of America living beyond its means for decades. This is a point that Fink drives home: "If the U.S. doesn't get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin."

在某個時候，這是不可持續的。不斷擴大的美國債務負荷是潛在的紙牌屋，這是美國超越其數十年來生活的不幸結果。這是Fink將回家帶回家的一點：“如果美國無法控制債務，如果赤字保持膨脹，美國有可能將該立場丟給像比特幣這樣的數字資產。”

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

In many ways, what is happening now in America is similar to what happened to Great Britain in the last century. Paying for two world wars at the start of the 20th century nearly bankrupted Great Britain, eventually forcing it to cede its place in the global economy to the United States.

在許多方面，美國現在正在發生的事情類似於上個世紀大不列顛發生的事情。在20世紀初為兩次世界大戰付費，幾乎破產了英國，最終迫使其將其在全球經濟中的地位割讓給美國。

How likely is this scenario?

這種情況有多大的可能性？

It's hard to imagine a world where Bitcoin takes over immediately. As in the case of the dollar replacing the pound, it will take massive international cooperation. In 1944, it took the Bretton Woods Agreement to make it happen, when dozens of nations from around the world met in New Hampshire to hammer out a deal. In addition to holding gold, the nations agreed to hold dollars, which were backed by the world's largest gold supply at the time. And they agreed on the role of central banks in setting exchange rates pegged to the dollar.

很難想像一個比特幣立即接管的世界。就像美元取代英鎊一樣，這將需要進行大規模的國際合作。 1944年，布雷頓·伍茲（Bretton Woods）的協議實現了這一目標，當時世界各地的數十名國家在新罕布什爾州見面以達成協議。除了持有黃金之外，各國同意持有美元，這是當時受到世界上最大的黃金供應的支持。他們同意中央銀行在設定匯率固定到美元的匯率中的作用。

A similar type of massive global cooperation involving Bitcoin might strike some people as being preposterous. But just look at what is happening now with tariffs and a potential trade war with China. Any time the White House says something like "50 nations called us to discuss a deal," I think about a new Bretton Woods.

類似類型的大規模全球合作涉及比特幣，可能會使某些人荒謬。但是，只要看看關稅和與中國的潛在貿易戰正在發生的事情。每當白宮都說“ 50個國家打電話給我們討論交易”時，我都會想到一個新的布雷頓伍茲。

Bitcoin and the global financial system

比特幣和全球金融體系

The current debate over tariffs and trade is exposing all the interdependencies between fiscal deficits, trade deficits, and global economic growth. We're learning about the fragility of the equity and debt markets, and how investor perceptions can change on a dime. The past few weeks have been a crash course in macroeconomics for many investors.

當前關於關稅和貿易的辯論正在暴露財政缺陷，貿易赤字和全球經濟增長之間的所有相互依存。我們正在學習股票和債務市場的脆弱性，以及投資者的看法如何在一毛錢上改變。過去的幾周是許多投資者的宏觀經濟學課程。

Against this backdrop, sovereign governments and central banks are starting to stockpile Bitcoin, with the U.S. leading the way with its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Russia and China are

在這種背景下，主權政府和中央銀行開始庫存比特幣，美國以其戰略性比特幣儲備領先。俄羅斯和中國是