根据标准包机

该银行的高温预测背后有两个原因：对投资者的更好访问和降低的波动。

Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin will reach a price of $500,000 by the end of 2028, thanks to two key factors: improved accessibility for investors and reduced volatility.

标准包机预测，到2028年底，比特币将达到500,000美元的价格，这要归功于两个关键因素：改善了投资者的可访问性和降低的波动性。

In a note on Wednesday, analyst Geoff Kendrick outlined how these two elements will contribute roughly $100,000 to Bitcoin's price each year before gains level off in 2029. The projection of $500,000 represents a 407% gain over the token's present price.

在周三的一份报告中，分析师杰夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）概述了这两个要素如何为比特币的价格贡献大约100,000美元，然后在2029年上涨。$ 500,000的预测比令牌目前的价格占407％的收益。

"While the near-term remains choppy for Bitcoin, the long-term is becoming clearer by the day," the global head of digital assets research wrote in attached commentary. "Access is improving under the Trump administration. Institutional inflows will continue to gather pace. And vol will gradually come lower as the quality of flows improves and other infrastructure (eg. options markets) expand."

全球数字资产研究负责人在附带的评论中写道：“虽然比特币的近期仍然是断断续续的，但长期越来越明显。” “在特朗普政府的领导下，访问正在改善。机构流入将继续收集步伐。随着流量的改善质量和其他基础设施（例如期权市场）的扩展，VOL将逐渐降低。”

According to Kendrick, the token's reputation as a safe haven and inflation hedge is making it popular among traditional investors and solidifying its presence on Wall Street, especially with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, which have seen inflows of $39 billion.

根据肯德里克（Kendrick）的说法，代币作为避风港和通货膨胀对冲的声誉使其在传统投资者中受欢迎，并巩固了其在华尔街的存在，尤其是去年引入了现货比特币ETF，这些ETF去年已有390亿美元的流入。

As the Trump administration continues to support cryptocurrencies and the ETF market matures, we can draw comparisons to the success of gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2004.

随着特朗普政府继续支持加密货币和ETF市场的成熟，我们可以比较2004年的黄金交换产品（ETP）的成功。

"US gold prices rose 4.3x as the ETP market matured from November 2004 through September 2011. We think a similar increase in BTC ETFs is likely as that market matures, which we expect will happen over a much shorter two-year period than the seven-year timeframe for gold ETPs," wrote Kendrick, suggesting that this factor will drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

“随着ETP市场从2004年11月到2011年9月的成长，美国黄金价格上涨了4.3倍。我们认为，随着该市场的成熟，BTC ETF的同样上涨，我们预计这将在两年内比七个时期短得多。肯德里克写道：“ - 年度的黄金ETP的时限。

"The gold ETPs also provide another lesson that is relevant to the nascent Bitcoin market: the asset's volatility is set to ease," he added.

他补充说：“黄金ETP还提供了与新生比特币市场相关的另一种教训：资产的波动率可以缓解。”

Bitcoin's volatility should improve as the ETFs provide the market with more stable flows, as was the case with the precious metal. Kendrick also anticipates that as other market functions, like options trading, are built out, we will see lower levels of volatility over time.

随着ETF为市场提供更稳定的流动，比特币的波动性应改善，就像贵金属一样。肯德里克（Kendrick）还预计，随着其他市场功能（如期权交易）的建立，随着时间的流逝，我们将看到较低的波动率。

"Indeed, in terms of the mix of flows, the entire digital assets market — including Bitcoin — is undeveloped relative to traditional financial markets. This should change over time, allowing vol to move lower," he said.

他说：“实际上，就流量的组合而言，整个数字资产市场（包括比特币）相对于传统金融市场而言并未开发。这应该随着时间的流逝而变化，使VOL降低。”

Over the next two to three years, three-month at-the-money realized volatility for Bitcoin should come down from the current spot level of 55% to 45%. Less volatility would encourage investors to increase their portfolio allocations to the cryptocurrency, which contributes to Kendrick's price target.

在接下来的两到三年中，比特币的三个月货币货币实现的波动率应从当前的55％的斑点水平下降到45％。较小的波动率将鼓励投资者增加对加密货币的投资组合分配，这有助于肯德里克的目标目标。

While disappointment over a lack of updates on Bitcoin policy in January stalled the rally momentum, Kendrick seems to be suggesting that a positive signal is finally flashing for the market.

尽管对一月份的比特币政策缺乏更新的失望使集会势头停滞了，但肯德里克似乎暗示着正面的信号终于在市场上闪烁。

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.50%, which could be a sign that investors are growing wary of US growth amid Trump's recent tariff clash — a macro-positive for Bitcoin.

周三，这项为期10年的国库收益率下降到4.50％以下，这可能表明，由于特朗普最近的关税冲突 - 比特币的宏观阳性，投资者对美国的增长有所警惕。

"The point here is that price action (lower back-end yields) is telling me that even if we get more tariffs (EU or higher China tariffs for example) the growth fear narrative will win. So either no more tariff issues, and so inflation expectations can come lower, or more tariffs and more growth fear. Win-win," wrote Kendrick in separate commentary.

“这里的重点是，价格行动（后端较低的收益率）告诉我，即使我们获得了更多的关税（例如，中国关税），增长恐惧的叙述将会获胜。因此，要么不再关税问题，因此肯德里克在单独的评论中写道，通货膨胀期望可能会降低，或者更多的关税和更多的增长恐惧。