根據標準包機

該銀行的高溫預測背後有兩個原因：對投資者的更好訪問和降低的波動。

Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin will reach a price of $500,000 by the end of 2028, thanks to two key factors: improved accessibility for investors and reduced volatility.

標準包機預測，到2028年底，比特幣將達到500,000美元的價格，這要歸功於兩個關鍵因素：改善了投資者的可訪問性和降低的波動性。

In a note on Wednesday, analyst Geoff Kendrick outlined how these two elements will contribute roughly $100,000 to Bitcoin's price each year before gains level off in 2029. The projection of $500,000 represents a 407% gain over the token's present price.

在周三的一份報告中，分析師傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）概述了這兩個要素如何為比特幣的價格貢獻大約100,000美元，然後在2029年上漲。$ 500,000的預測比令牌目前的價格佔407％的收益。

"While the near-term remains choppy for Bitcoin, the long-term is becoming clearer by the day," the global head of digital assets research wrote in attached commentary. "Access is improving under the Trump administration. Institutional inflows will continue to gather pace. And vol will gradually come lower as the quality of flows improves and other infrastructure (eg. options markets) expand."

全球數字資產研究負責人在附帶的評論中寫道：“雖然比特幣的近期仍然是斷斷續續的，但長期越來越明顯。” “在特朗普政府的領導下，訪問正在改善。機構流入將繼續收集步伐。隨著流量的改善質量和其他基礎設施（例如期權市場）的擴展，VOL將逐漸降低。”

According to Kendrick, the token's reputation as a safe haven and inflation hedge is making it popular among traditional investors and solidifying its presence on Wall Street, especially with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, which have seen inflows of $39 billion.

根據肯德里克（Kendrick）的說法，代幣作為避風港和通貨膨脹對沖的聲譽使其在傳統投資者中受歡迎，並鞏固了其在華爾街的存在，尤其是去年引入了現貨比特幣ETF，這些ETF去年已有390億美元的流入。

As the Trump administration continues to support cryptocurrencies and the ETF market matures, we can draw comparisons to the success of gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2004.

隨著特朗普政府繼續支持加密貨幣和ETF市場的成熟，我們可以比較2004年的黃金交換產品（ETP）的成功。

"US gold prices rose 4.3x as the ETP market matured from November 2004 through September 2011. We think a similar increase in BTC ETFs is likely as that market matures, which we expect will happen over a much shorter two-year period than the seven-year timeframe for gold ETPs," wrote Kendrick, suggesting that this factor will drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

“隨著ETP市場從2004年11月到2011年9月的成長，美國黃金價格上漲了4.3倍。我們認為，隨著該市場的成熟，BTC ETF的同樣上漲，我們預計這將在兩年內比七個時期短得多。肯德里克寫道：“ - 年度的黃金ETP的時限。

"The gold ETPs also provide another lesson that is relevant to the nascent Bitcoin market: the asset's volatility is set to ease," he added.

他補充說：“黃金ETP還提供了與新生比特幣市場相關的另一種教訓：資產的波動率可以緩解。”

Bitcoin's volatility should improve as the ETFs provide the market with more stable flows, as was the case with the precious metal. Kendrick also anticipates that as other market functions, like options trading, are built out, we will see lower levels of volatility over time.

隨著ETF為市場提供更穩定的流動，比特幣的波動性應改善，就像貴金屬一樣。肯德里克（Kendrick）還預計，隨著其他市場功能（如期權交易）的建立，隨著時間的流逝，我們將看到較低的波動率。

"Indeed, in terms of the mix of flows, the entire digital assets market — including Bitcoin — is undeveloped relative to traditional financial markets. This should change over time, allowing vol to move lower," he said.

他說：“實際上，就流量的組合而言，整個數字資產市場（包括比特幣）相對於傳統金融市場而言並未開發。這應該隨著時間的流逝而變化，使VOL降低。”

Over the next two to three years, three-month at-the-money realized volatility for Bitcoin should come down from the current spot level of 55% to 45%. Less volatility would encourage investors to increase their portfolio allocations to the cryptocurrency, which contributes to Kendrick's price target.

在接下來的兩到三年中，比特幣的三個月貨幣貨幣實現的波動率應從當前的55％的斑點水平下降到45％。較小的波動率將鼓勵投資者增加對加密貨幣的投資組合分配，這有助於肯德里克的目標目標。

While disappointment over a lack of updates on Bitcoin policy in January stalled the rally momentum, Kendrick seems to be suggesting that a positive signal is finally flashing for the market.

儘管對一月份的比特幣政策缺乏更新的失望使集會勢頭停滯了，但肯德里克似乎暗示著正面的信號終於在市場上閃爍。

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.50%, which could be a sign that investors are growing wary of US growth amid Trump's recent tariff clash — a macro-positive for Bitcoin.

週三，這項為期10年的國庫收益率下降到4.50％以下，這可能表明，由於特朗普最近的關稅衝突 - 比特幣的宏觀陽性，投資者對美國的增長有所警惕。

"The point here is that price action (lower back-end yields) is telling me that even if we get more tariffs (EU or higher China tariffs for example) the growth fear narrative will win. So either no more tariff issues, and so inflation expectations can come lower, or more tariffs and more growth fear. Win-win," wrote Kendrick in separate commentary.

“這裡的重點是，價格行動（後端較低的收益率）告訴我，即使我們獲得了更多的關稅（例如，中國關稅），增長恐懼的敘述將會獲勝。因此，要么不再關稅問題，因此肯德里克在單獨的評論中寫道，通貨膨脹期望可能會降低，或者更多的關稅和更多的增長恐懼。