Bitcoin's (BTC) Record-Setting Rally Will Push the Crypto to a $500,000 Price Tag by the End of 2028, According to Standard Chartered

There are two reasons behind the bank's sky-high forecast: better access for investors and lower volatility.

Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin will reach a price of $500,000 by the end of 2028, thanks to two key factors: improved accessibility for investors and reduced volatility.

In a note on Wednesday, analyst Geoff Kendrick outlined how these two elements will contribute roughly $100,000 to Bitcoin's price each year before gains level off in 2029. The projection of $500,000 represents a 407% gain over the token's present price.

"While the near-term remains choppy for Bitcoin, the long-term is becoming clearer by the day," the global head of digital assets research wrote in attached commentary. "Access is improving under the Trump administration. Institutional inflows will continue to gather pace. And vol will gradually come lower as the quality of flows improves and other infrastructure (eg. options markets) expand."

According to Kendrick, the token's reputation as a safe haven and inflation hedge is making it popular among traditional investors and solidifying its presence on Wall Street, especially with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, which have seen inflows of $39 billion.

As the Trump administration continues to support cryptocurrencies and the ETF market matures, we can draw comparisons to the success of gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2004.

"US gold prices rose 4.3x as the ETP market matured from November 2004 through September 2011. We think a similar increase in BTC ETFs is likely as that market matures, which we expect will happen over a much shorter two-year period than the seven-year timeframe for gold ETPs," wrote Kendrick, suggesting that this factor will drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

"The gold ETPs also provide another lesson that is relevant to the nascent Bitcoin market: the asset's volatility is set to ease," he added.

Bitcoin's volatility should improve as the ETFs provide the market with more stable flows, as was the case with the precious metal. Kendrick also anticipates that as other market functions, like options trading, are built out, we will see lower levels of volatility over time.

"Indeed, in terms of the mix of flows, the entire digital assets market — including Bitcoin — is undeveloped relative to traditional financial markets. This should change over time, allowing vol to move lower," he said.

Over the next two to three years, three-month at-the-money realized volatility for Bitcoin should come down from the current spot level of 55% to 45%. Less volatility would encourage investors to increase their portfolio allocations to the cryptocurrency, which contributes to Kendrick's price target.

While disappointment over a lack of updates on Bitcoin policy in January stalled the rally momentum, Kendrick seems to be suggesting that a positive signal is finally flashing for the market.

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.50%, which could be a sign that investors are growing wary of US growth amid Trump's recent tariff clash — a macro-positive for Bitcoin.

"The point here is that price action (lower back-end yields) is telling me that even if we get more tariffs (EU or higher China tariffs for example) the growth fear narrative will win. So either no more tariff issues, and so inflation expectations can come lower, or more tariffs and more growth fear. Win-win," wrote Kendrick in separate commentary.