比特币 (BTC) 夺回主导地位，但山寨币抢尽风头，是时候逢低买入山寨币了吗？

比特币最近的回调为山寨币的飙升打开了大门。随着比特币的喘息，山寨币正在取得令人印象深刻的两位数涨幅。

Bitcoin’s recent setback has paved the way for altcoins to soar. As BTC takes a breather, altcoins are notching up double-digit gains. This surge in altcoin demand is a clear indication that investors are seizing the opportunity to diversify their portfolios and recoup losses.

比特币最近的下跌为山寨币的飙升铺平了道路。随着比特币的喘息，山寨币正在取得两位数的涨幅。山寨币需求的激增清楚地表明，投资者正在抓住机会实现投资组合多元化并弥补损失。

Retail buyers usually strategize around Bitcoin’s peak, viewing it as the ideal time to shift capital into the altcoin market. But if the market’s current shift suggests BTC might be nearing a local top, could this be the sweet spot to scoop up altcoins on the ‘dip’?

散户买家通常会围绕比特币的峰值制定策略，将其视为将资金转移到山寨币市场的理想时机。但如果市场当前的转变表明 BTC 可能已接近局部顶部，那么这可能是在“下跌”时吸纳山寨币的最佳时机吗？

Bitcoin is reclaiming its dominance but there’s a catch

比特币正在重新夺回其主导地位，但有一个问题

Currently, all eyes are on Bitcoin. After bouncing back from the chaos post-FOMC, BTC is inching closer to the $100K mark, trading at $97K (at the time of writing).

目前，所有人的目光都集中在比特币上。从 FOMC 后的混乱中恢复过来后，BTC 正在慢慢接近 10 万美元大关，交易价格为 9.7 万美元（截至撰写本文时）。

However, don’t expect a smooth ride – challenges still lie ahead. While Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 59%, that doesn’t guarantee a bullish run. On the psychological front, BTC still faces hurdles.

然而，不要指望一帆风顺——挑战仍然存在。尽管比特币的主导地位已攀升至 59%，但这并不能保证看涨。在心理方面，比特币仍然面临障碍。

For one, the greed index has slipped back to early November levels. A small pullback could push it into the “fear” zone, signaling caution among traders – a logical move after the recent dump.

其一，贪婪指数已回落至 11 月初的水平。小幅回调可能会将其推入“恐惧”区域，这表明交易者持谨慎态度——这是近期暴跌后的合乎逻辑的举动。

Secondly, short-sellers are reaping rewards by betting against BTC, a strategy as rewarding as buying at the bottom and selling at the top of the cycle.

其次，卖空者通过做空 BTC 来获得回报，这种策略与在周期底部买入并在周期顶部卖出一样有价值。

These factors combined suggest that while BTC’s current price may look inviting, the cautious mood among investors points to a likely consolidation phase ahead.

这些因素综合起来表明，虽然比特币当前的价格可能看起来很诱人，但投资者的谨慎情绪表明未来可能会出现盘整阶段。

Meanwhile, the altcoin market has been flourishing in Bitcoin’s recovery, leading the charge in the top gainers’ chart. If this trend continues, most altcoins could be up for a massive leg-up.

与此同时，随着比特币的复苏，山寨币市场一直蓬勃发展，在涨幅榜上名列前茅。如果这种趋势持续下去，大多数山寨币可能会大幅上涨。

So, time to dig into the altcoin dip?

那么，是时候深入研究山寨币的下跌了吗？

The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the altcoin market is really seeing an influx of fresh capital.

接下来的几天对于确定山寨币市场是否真的看到新资本涌入至关重要。

Recent activity shows big players scooping up major names – a classic indication of a bottom forming – but a strong rebound may still be premature.

最近的活动显示，大型企业纷纷买入大牌——这是底部形成的典型迹象——但强劲反弹可能仍为时过早。

Why? For one, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of recovery. As highlighted earlier, the distinction between “consolidation” and “correction” remains razor-thin, keeping the market on edge.

为什么？一方面，比特币仍处于复苏的早期阶段。正如前面所强调的，“盘整”和“调整”之间的区别仍然非常微小，这让市场感到紧张。

Even more telling is the ETH/BTC correlation chart below, which hints at further downside unless the RSI reaches historical lows. This uncertainty might keep altcoin investors cautious, at least for the present.

更能说明问题的是下面的 ETH/BTC 相关图，该图暗示除非 RSI 达到历史低点，否则还会进一步下跌。这种不确定性可能会让山寨币投资者保持谨慎，至少目前如此。

A smarter move could be to focus on low to mid-cap altcoins for quicker returns, given the current market dynamics.

鉴于当前的市场动态，更明智的举措可能是专注于中低市值山寨币，以获得更快的回报。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

Top-tier altcoins, however, are still closely linked to Bitcoin’s price action and remain riskier bets – especially until Bitcoin shows clearer signs of consolidation or an overheated market.

然而，顶级山寨币仍然与比特币的价格走势密切相关，并且仍然是风险较高的押注——尤其是在比特币显示出更明显的整合迹象或市场过热之前。

Moreover, with whales accumulating top altcoins, these coins could become more susceptible to manipulation. Staying agile could be key to seizing opportunities, which, for now, may lie in low-cap gems.

此外，随着鲸鱼积累顶级山寨币，这些硬币可能会变得更容易受到操纵。保持敏捷可能是抓住机会的关键，目前机会可能存在于低市值宝石中。